|
BRIC Nations: Focus On India
金砖国家：关注印度
在经济学中，BRIC(典型的被称为“BRICs”或者BRIC国家)是一些发展迅猛的发展中国家：巴西，俄罗斯，印度和中国，的首字母缩写。这个首字母缩写一开始是在2001年被Goldman Sachs第一次创造出来并大量引用的。根据2005发表的一篇文章所述，墨西哥和韩国正是与BRICs相当的其他国家，但他们的经济一开始是排外的，因为他们被认为已经达到了较为发达国家的水平。Goldman Sachs认为，既然他们发展迅速，那么到了2050年BRICs国家的合并后的经济将超越当今世界上最富有的国家的合体经济。这四个合并了的国家，目前占据了超过四分之一的陆地面积且超过世界人口的百分之40。 In economics, BRIC (typically rendered as "the BRICs" or "the BRIC countries") is an acronym that refers to thefast-growing developing economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The acronym was first coined and prominently used by Goldman Sachs in 2001. According to a paper published in 2005, Mexico and South Korea are the only other countries comparable to the BRICs, but their economies were excluded initially because they were considered already more developed Goldman Sachs argued that, since they are developing rapidly, by 2050 the combined economies of the BRICs could eclipse the combined economies of the current richest countries of the world. The four countries, combined, currently account for more than a quarter of the world's land area and more than 40% of theworld's population. PRIMARY OBJECTIVE To ascertain the growth prospect in BRIC countries by doing in-depth and detailed analysis of the economic situations in these countries. To identifying key opportunities for growth in different industry sectors at the economies of Brazil Russia, India and China. RESEARCH DESIGN The design used for carrying out this research is EXPLORATORY & EXPERIENCED based. This type of research is tentative and it is qualitative in nature. Exploration is particularly useful when researchers lack a clear idea of the problems. The approach used in the study was both qualitative as well as quantitative as only theoretical aspects are not considered but their practicality is also been observed. DATA COLLECTION SECONDARY DATA My study is based only on secondary data collected from multivariate websites . A large number of online & published reports have been studied to analyze the growth forecaste of BRIC countries CRITICAL REVIEW OF LITERATURE BRIC or BRICs are terms used in economics to refer to the combination of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The fortunes of the world economy over the next decade depend on what happens in the BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India and China. All with large populations and hungry for growth, they are already reshaping global commerce and they have the potential to change it even more. In this issue of The Banker we focus on all four. With international banks engrossed by China, our cover story looks at the best banks to buy and provides a Top 50 of Chinese banks. The Bric countries have large, young populations to drive this growth, with many concentrated in major cities, wealth generators that these are.The growing prosperity of the Bric economies will be largely down to a rapidly emergent and expanding middle class. Improving domestic consumption should complement export and investment strengths, and provide more long-term growth.The numbers of Bric residents whose incomes exceed $3,000 (consistent with entry into the middle class in the emerging markets region) should almost double between 2006 and 2009.By 2015, more than 800 million people across the four economies should have crossed this threshold – exceeding the current total population of the US, Western Europe and Japan combined. This should affect many industry sectors, including mobile-phone operators, computers, automobiles, etc. Rising incomes will also lead to increased numbers of high-net-worth individuals.Another factor supporting these markets is corporate profitability. Corporate profits in Bric companies has been consistently positive over the past decade, driven largely by corporate restructuring, reduced levels of borrowing and improvements in the quality of corporate governance.#p#分页标题#e# In future, provided the recent problems in the credit market do not affect global growth in a significant manner, we believe that Brazil should continue to perform well despite the short-term volatility. Valuations are not stretched, and diversification has been increasing with new companies coming to the market.Meanwhile, India's stock market has reached very high levels. We expect Indian GDP and corporate earnings growth to slow as we enter 2008. We will be watching for fiscal and monetary policy initiatives to keep inflation under control. Although positively positioned for the long term, the Indian market is likely to remain volatile in the short term.Chinese equity valuations have moved up in recent months, but we believe the higher valuations are justified given the better earnings-growth outlook. The currency appreciation, mergers and acquisitions, and implementation of management incentive plans, as well as a tax cut in 2008, should support Chinese equities. A negative is China's huge and rising trade surplus with the US and Europe.Finally, Russian equities suffered in the August markets' turmoil, and with no strong performance earlier this year to cushion the blow, many Russian stocks have been left on modest valuations. For example, Gazprom and Lukoil are on relatively low valuations, even though both companies have a longer estimated life of oil resources than their Brazilian counterpart Petrobras.The oil price, which is a key driver of Russian equities, is unlikely just to collapse, although for some stocks, the market has been trading as if this were the case. Forecasts that the nominal GDP of the BRICs will virtually treble between 2006-2012 to US$15.4trn, with combined exports of US$3.6trn boosting domestic growth and creating a whole new generation of consumers. At a time when growth is slowing in Europe and the US, the BRICs are a uniquely compelling growth opportunity for companies able to penetrate these largely virgin markets. The economies of China and India, whose recent growth has been triggered by investment and exports of manufactured goods, are vastly different from resource-fuelled Russia and, to a lesser extent, Brazil. Consequently, any strategy to exploit the growth of the BRICs must take into account the unique risks faced in each - for example, the dangers to oil price stability for Russia, and the immaturity of financial markets and inflationary pressures for China. FACTORS LEAD TO GROWTH IN BRIC COUNTRIES Globalization and growth Worldwide demand for energy and other commodities, the outsourcing phenomenon, and widespread access to global capital have helped fuel the BRIC countries' growth. India dominates service outsourcing, Brazil and Russia have vast energy and mineral resources, and China has developed into the world's manufacturing plant. India's economy is growing at 8.5% a year, and China's at more than 10.5%, and a combined GDP of BRIC countries is US$5.2 trillion in 2006. Huge populations, future buyers Together, the BRIC countries represent 42% of the world's population, These leading emerging and rapidly-growing economies represented a total market of 2.7 billion people.That number represents enormous untapped future purchasing power. It gives BRIC countries the potential for even more rapid expansion if their economies continueto develop and the benefits reach a greater percentage of their populations. Reduced reliance on foreign debt Growth has helped BRIC countries pay down loans incurred during previous economic crises, though the potential for default on that debt could still present an investment risk. Riding the roller coaster Despite the recent success of these regions--or because of it--money managers are divided on how long the rise of emerging markets can continue without a significant correction.Because commodities are so important to the BRIC economies, any slowdown in worldwide growth and therefore demand could have a significant impact on investments there. Other risks exist as well. All four countries have experienced political instability, currency fluctuations, and/or economic problems. Investors who were affected won't soon forget Russia's 1998 economic crisis or Brazil's bouts with rampant inflation in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Also, economic growth rates don't necessarily translate directly into stock market returns; until the last year or so, China's stock market suffered serious multiyear losses. Market Trends, Challenges & Opportunities 1)Across BRIC countries, the food and grocery (F&G) segment is clearly driving retail growth. For eg, retail food sales dominate the total retail market in Brazil, accounting for almost 54 percent of the total retail sales, while Russia is the fastest growing retail food sales market in the world, with the potential to again double in size by 2008.#p#分页标题#e# 2)The prevalence of English as a language of communication to a very great extent facilitates material sourcing and business communication. While India and Russia pose no problems in this regard, Brazil and China present communication problems for foreign companies. 3)The importance of governments that are quick on decision-making and passing liberal trade laws cannot be emphasised enough. In China, for instance, being a non-democratic country makes it easier for foreign investors to do business sans bureaucratic red-tapism (in comparison to a democratic country like India), the obvious reason being that the political establishment is not directly accountable to the people. 4)Growing urbanisation and metropolitan saturation is leading to the expansion of retail formats and investment opportunities towards tier-II cities and rural hubs across all four countries. 5)Continued economic reforms together with the growth of organised retail (especially in the F&G segment) has led to growing rural incomes, triggering off far-reaching, social impacts. The upcoming ‘Golden Quadrilateral' plan for roadways in India, which is to connect the four cities of Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai, will have massive economic and social repercussions on rural and semi-rural clusters along the vast network. In China too, the government plans to create a rural retail network covering 70 percent of all villages by 2008. 6)Apart from F&G, personal care, consumer durables and electronics seem to be other popular consumption segments, especially among the rising middle classes with their rising incomes and changing consumption patterns. 7)‘Localisation' of goods and services is extremely important for all global companies planning an entry into the BRIC markets. These are all very vast and diverse nations with multiple traditions and aspiration levels that need to be tackled intelligently. 8)A non-economic, intangible market factor among these emerging economies happens to be a rising sense of national pride that needs to be very sensitively addressed by all foreign companies intending to set up businesses here. 9)Another common challenge across all BRIC markets is the near absence of infrastructure problems. COUNTRY ANALYSIS INDIA Aryan tribes from the northwest infiltrated onto the Indian subcontinent about 1500 B.C.; their merger with the earlier Dravidian inhabitants created the classical Indian culture. The Maurya Empire of the 4th and 3rd centuries B.C. - which reached its zenith under ASHOKA - united much of South Asia. The Golden Age ushered in by the Gupta dynasty (4th to 6th centuries A.D.) saw a flowering of Indian science, art, and culture. Arab incursions starting in the 8th century and Turkic in the 12th were followed by those of European traders, beginning in the late 15th century. By the 19th century, Britain had assumed political control of virtually all Indian lands. Indian armed forces in the British army played a vital role in both World Wars. Nonviolent resistance to British colonialism led by Mohandas GANDHI and Jawaharlal NEHRU brought independence in 1947. The subcontinent was divided into the secular state of India and the smaller Muslim state of Pakistan. A third war between the two countries in 1971 resulted in East Pakistan becoming the separate nation of Bangladesh. India's nuclear weapons testing in 1998 caused Pakistan to conduct its own tests that same year. The dispute between the countries over the state of Kashmir is ongoing, but discussions and confidence-building measures have led to decreased tensions since 2002. Despite impressive gains in economic investment and output, India faces pressing problems such as significant overpopulation, environmental degradation, extensive poverty, and ethnic and religious strife. Population: 1,129,866,154 Age structure : 0-14 years: 31.8% (male 188,208,196/female 171,356,024) 15-64 years: 63.1% (male 366,977,821/female 346,034,565) 65 years and over: 5.1% (male 27,258,259/female 30,031,289) #p#分页标题#e#Population growth rate: 1.606% Birth rate: 22.69 births/1,000 population Death rate: 6.58 deaths/1,000 population Sex ratio: at birth: 1.12 male(s)/female under 15 years: 1.098 male(s)/female 15-64 years: 1.061 male(s)/female 65 years and over: 0.908 male(s)/female Total population: 1.064 male(s)/female Life expectancy at birth: total population: 68.59 years male: 66.28 years female: 71.17 years Nationality: Indian Ethnic groups: Indo-Aryan 72%, Dravidian 25%, Mongoloid and other 3% Religions: #p#分页标题#e#Hindu 80.5%, Muslim 13.4%, Christian 2.3%, Sikh 1.9%, other 1.8%, unspecified 0.1% Languages: English enjoys associate status but is the most important language for national, political, and commercial communication; Hindi is the national language and primary tongue of 30% of the people; there are 21 other official languages: Assamese, Bengali, Bodo, Dogri, Gujarati, Kannada, Kashmiri, Konkani, Maithili, Malayalam, Manipuri, Marathi, Nepali, Oriya, Punjabi, Sanscrit, Santhali, Sindhi, Tamil, Telugu, and Urdu; Hindustani is a popular variant of Hindi/Urdu spoken widely throughout northern India but is not an official language. SLEPT ANALYSIS India: Rising internal issues may de-stabalize the well placed reforms Declining in influence, Indian National Congress still holds the key to political stabilityGaining the support of national and regional parties makes it difficult for a single-party government to be formed at the center. Political stability in India is threatened by the Kashmir dispute and other internal issues. India's current position in the global arena is reflective of its political and economic development over the past two decades. Doubts over sustainability of the current rapid economic growth continues to plague the sub-continent India has registered robust economic growth over the recent past which has put it in a relatively strong economic position. However, doubts over the sustainability of this growth continue to plague the economy. Infrastructure holds the key to sustain current levels of economic growth. The government has adopted a liberal approach towards foreign investment in most sectors. Recent economic development raises new social issues Changing social and demographic make-up of the economy is presenting new opportunities as well as challenges Social dimensions of poverty and inequality need to be tackled along side economic development The social infrastructure in place is not sufficient to meet the needs of a burgeoning population. India registers an increasing technological presence globally Large talent pools, the development of required infrastructure and incentives provided by state governments are attracting investment in the ICT sector. There is evidence of increasing technological capability and learning among Indian firms. A growing number of MNC's have been setting up offshore development centers and R&D facilities in India since the 1990s. Despite the impressive performance, there is a huge scope for improvement in the software sector. Steps have been taken to improve the legal system though lot still remains Initiatives have been taken to strengthen the judicial system. Other indicators of legal health see only marginal improvement. Environmental concerns remain buried under economic and social problems Polluting industries and agents yet to be checked. The supply of water for direct consumption, irrigation purposes and commercial purposes still remains an issue Demographic and economic changes bring new dimensions to environmental concerns. Eye on India India's imminent urbanisation process has implications for demand for housing, urban infrastructure, location of retail, and demand for consumer durables. The on-stream infrastructure development will drive growth in the transportation sector, spur demand for vehicles, increase real estate values along the “Golden Quadrilateral” corridor, and potentially boost construction of suburban homes as people escape congested cities. Plus, it will open up thousands of villages en route to a global audience and effectively integrate them with the growing Indian economy. ? Growth of the Retail market, to a great extent, is the dependent on the size of the country's consuming class and the rate of growth of GDP, especially disposable incomes. ? India is the world's second most populous country and its GDP growth is likely to surpass that of China by 2015. ? It is estimated that India's GDP will surpass that of the US before 2050, to make it the world's second largest economy.#p#分页标题#e# ? Reflecting on the robust growth in India's GDP, consumer expenditure (in current prices) grew at a relatively high pace of nearly 10 percent per annum over the past two years. ? India's advantage lies in the fact that it has the largest young population in the world – over 890 million Indians are below 45 years of age. The median age for India is 25 years as compared to 28 years for Brazil, 33 years for China and 38 years for Russia. ? There are more English speaking people in India than on the European continent. ? The retailing industry in India, estimated at USD 270 Billion in 2006, is expected to double to USD 440 Billion by 2010. ? The size of the organised retailing market in 2006 stood at USD 12.4 Billion in 2006, thereby making up a mere 4.7 percent of the total retailing market. ? Of the total retail market, food and grocery retail is by far the single largest block estimated to be worth a whopping Rs.642,200 crore, but more than 99 percent of this market is dominated by the neighbourhood mom & pop stores. ? Clothing, textiles and fashion accessories constitute the second largest block. ? For the year 2007, the India Apparel Report 2007 expects growth of organised retail to touch 40 percent. From 2008 onwards (until at least 2010), organised retail is expected to register around 45 percent YoY growth in India. Total retail in India, which registered 5.7 percent YoY growth from 2004-2006, to range between that and 6 percent YoY growth over the next 3-4 years. With these growth percentages and following from our estimates for 2006, the future estimates* for organised retail in India: 2007– Rs.77,000 crore; 2008 – Rs.111,500 crore; FINDING & ANALYSIS Brazil, Russia, India and China as economies, would together overtake the economies of the G-6 countries in the world by 2040. By 2025 they could account for over half the size of the G6 - they are currently worth less than 15%. Of the current G6, only the US and Japan may be among the six largest economies in US$ terms in 2050 These fast expanding BRIC economies are expected to represent 44% of world GDP by 2050. Growth of BRIC economies boosts business worldwide & are the building block of the whole globe. China and India, will become dominant global suppliers of manufactured goods and services while Brazil and Russia would become similarly dominant as suppliers of raw materials (energy, oil & mineral resources.) BRIC is now also used as a more generic marketing term to refer to these four emerging economies. BRIC countries represent 42% of the world's population. India's growth rate will be the highest -- not China's -- and it will overtake Japan (today the world's second largest economy) by 2032. |
 |
|||
| 网站地图 |
