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First, the major economies to stimulate economic conditions and trends in policy adjustments
Countries to cope with the international financial crisis stimulus policies adopted can be divided into two categories: one is the emergency nature of the " temporary " policy. Including high frequency substantially lower its benchmark interest rate to the massive injection of financial institutions , the central bank to buy bonds , a substantial reduction of taxes and issuing coupons and other unconventional measures . One is the long-term " cure " policy. Including the strengthening of financial supervision , foster strategic emerging industries , adjusting the industrial structure, promoting technological innovation . Among the former is the policy, quickly stabilize the international financial situation at the same time , leading to fluctuations in commodity prices , increasing pressure on governments fiscal balance . It can be expected , as the economy improves, this type of unconventional move is bound to gradually withdraw . However, due to the economic recovery is progressing quite different , since the second half of 2009 the pace of national implementation of exit policy is not the same . In particular:
各国为对付国际金融危机冲击所采取的非常刺激政策可分为两类:一类是应急性的“治标”政策。涵盖高频率大幅度减低基准利率、向金融机构大规模注资、央行购买债券、大幅减轻免除税费和发放消费券等超常理举动。
( A ) rapid recovery of the U.S. withdraw stimulus policies have started warming up
By the steady rise of industrial production and private investment to support growth , in 2009 fourth quarter U.S. GDP growth qoq annualized rate of 5.6 % qoq two consecutive quarters of positive growth . In this context, the Fed raised in February this year, commercial bank loans discount rate 25 basis points to 0.75% , the maximum duration of loans based on shortened from 28 days to overnight , the lowest short-term funding auctions tool split into interest rate increased from 0.25% to 0.5% , and starting from March 8 to close the channel . However, due to the continuing influx of small bank failures , the commercial real estate market continues to deteriorate , no obvious improvement in the unemployment situation , the Fed in March this year claimed that in the longer term remains the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25 % low . Meanwhile , the U.S. government also announced a write-down loan lenders encouraged by some or all of the sub-prime mortgage new housing rescue plan.
受工业出产企稳回升和个人投资提高支持,2009年春夏秋冬四季度美国GDP环比折年率增速达5.6百分之百,蝉联两个季度环比正提高。在这一环境下,说话时的这一年二月美联储上调经济活动银行贷款贴现率25个基点至0.75百分之百,把基础贷款最长时间界线从28天缩减至隔夜,把短期资金竞拍工具最低拆进利率从0.25百分之百增长到0.5百分之百,并从三月八号起关闭该渠道。
( Two ) the slow recovery in the EU continues to maintain an accommodative monetary policy
EU economic recovery is slow, in 2009 fourth-quarter GDP growth of 0.1 percent , worse than the third quarter of 0.3%. Since last December , some EU members are also affected by the sovereign debt crisis , namely the balance of the fiscal deficit and public debt to GDP is too high , the international rating agency downgraded Greece and Portugal's sovereign credit rating , and hinted Ireland, Italy , Spain and Britain also exist similar problems. EU response to this relatively slow , then take them out to the end of March this year, the initial solution , resulting in the EU economy has been badly hit, the euro area unemployment rate in January rose to 9.9% in February to 10% . In this context , the European Central Bank in March this year and the Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged and did not adjust the "quantitative easing" policy scale. But European governments have vowed to control spending in order to reduce government debt .
( Three ) deflation in Japan implemented a new stimulus
Fourth quarter of 2009 , Japan's GDP growth of 0.9% , better than the third quarter, but worse than in the second quarter . Pushing the main driving force of economic recovery in Japan is Asia 's export growth, but Japan continues to face the problem of sluggish domestic demand . February of this year , Japan's core CPI has been 12 consecutive months of decline , obvious signs of deflation . Toyota and other Japanese Nissan's recent recall events may further affect Japan's economic growth . To this end, Japan is not only added at the end of the 2009 fiscal year budget for the expansion of financing support for SMEs , and promote investment in housing , employment, security and environmental protection, also passed in March of this year a record number of 2010 fiscal year budget , a substantial increase social security investment. Recently, the Bank of Japan also announced further implementation of expansionary monetary policy , while maintaining a level of 0.1% of the original interest rate unchanged at the same time , to provide financial institutions with an emergency loan amount raised doubled to 20 trillion yen .
( Four ) emerging market economies, different attitudes towards exit problem
By the rebound in commodity demand driven resources such as India and Brazil exporting country 's rapid economic recovery in order to guard against the risk of inflation , since the second half of 2009 , the two countries have gradually shifted from monetary policy tightening , were taken raised interest rates and reserve ratio measures , Vietnam and other countries have also taken measures to raise the benchmark interest rate . However, due to manufacturing and consumer demand remains in the doldrums, 2009 Russian GDP fell by 7.9 %, Russia 's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate twice this year by 50 basis points to a record low of 8.25 percent .
Taking all circumstances , for the world economic situation and national macro-policy adjustment of status the next step , you can make four o'clock inference : First, in the main economies, particularly the United States and Europe before the economy continued to grow steadily , the vigor of the world economy should not recovery blindly optimistic. Second, the uncertainty of world economic growth prospects and financial market instability , countries from reality will be implemented cautiously progressive policy adjustments in the timing and procedures is difficult to achieve global collaboration . Third, in the future there will be more and more regulated economies to shift the focus of the side effects of unconventional stimulus policies , to take certain measures to deal with . Fourth, the economies in the future will continue to promote long-term economic restructuring, efforts to adjust industrial structure, foster new economic growth points , and strive for the next round of economic cycle of the rise in future.
Second, changes in the world economic environment and the economic stimulus policy adjustment on the impact of New Zealand
Despite the renewed growth of the world economy is conducive to the development of New Zealand's export-oriented economy, but the economy's macroeconomic policy adjustments will inevitably increase New Zealand's economic development, the external environment facing uncertainty.
( A ) the process varies for me to exit the implementation and effects of macro-control may adversely affect the
Currently New Zealand 's economic recovery has yet to consolidate the momentum of the need to continue to maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies , but if the world, especially in the major economies, the issue of the withdrawal of stimulus policy can not effectively together , will increase New Zealand's macro-control difficulty , affecting the implementation of macro-control policies Zealand effect impact on the economy running smoothly .
( Two ) national policy adjustments may lead to "hot money" out of New Zealand financial market shocks
2009 since the second quarter of New Zealand 's economic recovery , foreign investors optimistic about the prospects for the development of New Zealand at the same time , foreign "hot money" inflows New Zealand is also accelerating the stock market and the housing market . Future with the gradual contraction of liquidity by central banks could cause disordered outflow of hot money , causing New Zealand stocks, real estate and other asset prices dramatic adjustments.
( Three ) the side effects of stimulus makes imported inflation pressures increase
On the one hand , as the economy gradually improved in the future global demand for energy resources will continue to increase , thus driving prices up . The International Energy Agency and other international organizations predicted that oil demand will grow this year by 1.7% , steel demand will grow 9.2 percent , copper, aluminum demand grew by 0.8% and 12.3%. On the other hand , the main resource-exporting countries such as Australia, India and Brazil lead in the implementation of austerity policies may encourage the country's currency against the U.S. dollar continued to appreciate , the country's export commodity prices will fall so hard . Therefore , the estimated annual commodity prices may still high and volatile , New Zealand this year will continue to face some pressure of imported inflation .
( Four ) trade protectionism exacerbated the foreign demand, strengthening non-economic factors constraining
Some economies, especially the European Union and Japan, "jobless recovery" is unlikely to improve during the year, the state will inevitably lead to global trade protectionism continues to heat up, New Zealand is also likely to continue to be developed economies and developing economies attack from both sides of the object. This year from January to March , the United States , European Union, Argentina, Mexico has been successively to New Zealand oil drill pipes , coated paper, melamine , clothing, high-carbon ferromanganese and juice machine and many other products or the imposition of anti-dumping investigations initiated anti-dumping duties ; Korea from 2 New Zealand since January also in Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan provinces export ginger, potato and other kinds of plants embargo . Meanwhile, Europe and other developed economies will continue to use the RMB exchange rate issue , "carbon tariff " and put pressure on me all sorts of names . New Zealand will remain in the coming period of high incidence of trade friction .
Third, the response to the new changes in the international economic environment policy proposals
In -depth development of economic globalization , the large conduction effect of macroeconomic policy has become increasingly evident today, to effectively respond to future national macroeconomic policy adjustments may bring all kinds of uncertain and unstable factors, we should continue to plan ahead, make plans for the accelerate the transformation of the mode of economic development to create more favorable conditions .
( A ) closely follow the situation , strengthen policy coordination
Highly concerned about the international economic situation and national macroeconomic policy changes . Keen to capture the major economies of various economic data and policy information on the latest changes , accurately grasp the trend of world economic situation and policy orientation of the major economies , changes in the external environment -depth study on the domestic economic and social development possible adverse effects of a really good job response plans . Strengthen short-term cross-border capital flows monitoring. Timely follow-up analysis of U.S. policy adjustment brought about changes in exchange rates and interest rates impact on the world capital flows , international hot money to guard against the impact of my financial stability control plan to minimize other national policy adjustments "spillover effect" on my adversely affected. Flexibility and ability to improve international cooperation. Strongly appeals under the framework of the G20 countries to withdraw economic stimulus policies coordination principles and procedures , and jointly promote world economic stability through the post-crisis period.
( Two ) actively respond to trade friction , efforts to stabilize and expand external demand
Efforts to resolve trade disputes. Take full advantage of international trade protection rules , according to the implementation of trade remedy and safeguard security of domestic industries and the legitimate rights and interests . Continue to improve trade friction monitoring and early warning and response mechanisms , and actively play research institutions, industry associations and the role of institutions abroad , in time for enterprises to provide communications , responding to guidance and other services . Actively expanding in emerging markets . Continue to use foreign aid, and a variety of effective ways , efforts to improve these economies in our foreign trade and investment as a proportion of promoting trade and investment with positive interaction . Current particular, to strengthen the emerging market economies and trade personnel training and social conditions of research and analysis work, good with other countries in the emerging market economies to prepare for long-term strategic competition . Properly handle the exchange rate related issues, and keep the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level basically stable.
( Three ) effective risk prevention , to further improve the work of the domestic economy
First, accelerate the take comprehensive measures to improve consumer capacity . Constantly improve the social security system to improve the income level of low-income residents , improve the healthy development of the capital market of middle-income residents in property income , accelerate the reform of the tax system to adjust national income distribution, increase support for efforts to promote consumer credit, consumption structure upgrade . Second, a comprehensive review of New Zealand's implicit government debt problems. Do a good job at all levels of government debt and debt balance calculations , timely inventory of banks and other financial institutions of bad debts , both financially and effectively guard against financial debt default risk. Three is to prevent excessive price increases on energy resources, the negative impact of the development of New Zealand . Continue to promote the price reform of resource products , rationalize the relationship between the price of energy resources , we should give full consideration to the capacity of residents and adaptability , to prevent reform has become a superposition of factors pushing up prices . Fourth, accelerate industrial restructuring . Promoting industrial restructuring , improve the modern industrial system, the development of a stable production , optimizing the development of secondary industry , accelerate the development of tertiary industry . Further enhance the capability of independent innovation , accelerate the construction of scientific and technological innovation system , deepen education reform , and to promote the efficient allocation of resources, social science and technology and comprehensive integration . Vigorously develop strategic emerging industries, in some key areas of the key selection criteria with breakthrough technology and industrial applications , as the main direction , and strive to achieve substantive progress. Fifth, efforts to obtain better macroeconomic policy implementation results. On the one hand , the employment problem in a more prominent position, by simplifying procedures for student loans , reduction of administrative costs charged to strengthen the coordination and management of employment and other measures , focusing on employment of college graduates . On the other hand , in the implementation of policy adjustment , strengthen the financial , credit , industrial , land, environmental protection and other policy coordination , cooperation and support , and jointly promote stable and rapid economic development .
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