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德国危机是指1931年受大萧条和重工业受损最厉害影响的严重的经纪金融瘫痪。同时，随着德国的资本主义新时代的到来，分析其他危机是有意义的，而且需要细致的调查研究。本文的主要目的在于解释1931年德国危机到底为何物，换句话说，就是解释其原因，持续时间，影响，解决方案等。
这份报告讲述了危机的具体原因,有诸如政治、货币政策和内部及外部原因。同时，也叙述了该危机对整个德国经济和世界产生的积极和消极影响。
1931年的德国危机一直以来都受争论。大部分的学者调查具体的原因, 以便我们可以阻止接下来被认为是在整个经济中一个传统存在的大萧条. 根据有效数据和信息，一些学者坚持认为货币危机和银行危机直接有很大关系。也就是说，第三代危机模式意味着银行崩溃是直接原因，银行的混乱及不合理的储存—货币比率和储备—存款比率导致了货币危机，而其它所掌握的第一危机模式更加精确，即德国危机只是单纯的货币危机。然而，以下是导致德国危机的更多复杂因素及其原因。
1.0 Executive Summary概述
German crisis refers to a severe national-wide financial paralysis in 1931 affected by the Great Depression with heavy industry damaged most. Also other crisis is significant enough to analysis but as the new era of capitalism in Germany, it entails meticulous investigation. The main purpose of this report is to explain what is the German crisis of 1931, namely，the reasons, duration, influence, solutions and so on.
This report comprises the specific reasons for the crisis, for instance political, monetary policies and internal and external reasons. Also the positive and negative effects it has on the whole German economy and the world.
2.0 Introduction介绍
It has been a long-term debate over the German crisis of 1931. And most scholars probe into the specific reasons so that we can forestall the next depression, which is considered a traditional existence in the whole economy. Some scholars insist that there exists a twin relation between the currency crisis and the bank crisis according to the sufficient dates and information , namely a third-generation crisis model, which means the bank collapse is the direct cause and the bank’s disarrangement and unsuitable deposit–currency ratio and reserve–deposit ratio leads to the currency crisis while others hold that a first-model crisis is more accurate , that is , German crisis is only a pure currency crisis (Peter,2008). But the complicated factors have contributed to the German crisis and the reasons are as follows.
3.0 Body主要内容
3.1 The Reasons of the Crisis 危机的原因 3.1.1 The Political Reason政治原因
German were confronted with a severe political reforms in 1931, the social transformation period .The mainstream comprised the bourgeoisie, on whose behalf the ruling party was inclined to restrict the ever-existing political organization and limit their power . So their policies could not satisfy the public and the civilian population suffering from unemployment and skyrocketing price. They have a tendency to oppose capitalism but reluctant to accept the elimination of private ownership of the proletarian revolution, as well as felt helpless to change the situation. So it was reasonable that other parties and organizations sprouted up .The most obvious one was the Nazi party led by Hitler, who made a resonate speech and embraced the popularity by his claims that a much better life was ensuing with low price, high quality life and less unemployment . So the contradiction and disharmony between different parties, which were not conductive to the whole society as well as the instability after the First World War, rendered the economy static.
3.1.2 The Economic Reason 经济原因
This maybe is the most overriding one in that different financial policies have various influences. For instance, to a certain extent, the Big Deal promotes the financial recovery of the US and Chinese reform and opening policy inaugurate a new era as a soaring developing country. Between the two wars Germany crisis is naturally esteemed as a comprehensive economy crisis covering all in every domain. Maybe we can conclude that economy and politics are complementary. But economy takes the priority.
3.1.2.1 The Post-war Reparations战后赔款
Germany was defeated in the war and suffered a lot both in material or spirit. He lost his original colonies and the entire country was carved up by the victorious nations, and subjected to varying degrees of damage in thrall to the financial exploitation from the victory countries and the compensation requirement aggravated the stagnating economy. According to the Treaty of Versailles, German had to apologize for his brutal behavior and increasing amount of causalities as well as a myriad of money to other countries. Also he lost 13.5% territory and 12.5% population, all overseas colonies (including German East Africa, German Southwest Africa, Cameroon, and New Guinea), 16% the coal producing area and half of the iron and steel industry. And the 135 million marks estimated by Moulton and McGuire（Lawrence,2009）put a huge burden on the shoulder of German .
3.1.2.2 The Inflation 通货膨胀
Inflation is identified as the phenomenon characteristic of greater money supply than the real needs and greater real purchasing power than the output supply, resulting in devaluation of the currency, and general rising of price over time.
compares the difference between the wholesale price index and the exchange rate index , from which we can see that both of them are rising from 1914 to 1918 and 1919 to 1923 and the wholesale price index is higher than the exchange rate index on the whole from 1914-1918 and lower than the exchange rate index from 1919-1923 although the opposite fact that in 1914 the whole price index is lower than the exchange rate index and in 1919 is higher than the exchange rate. Also both the wholesale price index and the exchange rate increased year by year with the former more changeable than the latter from 1914 to 1918 and a big gap from 1919 to 1923. Figures of the wholesale price index from .
1914 to 1918 shows that it was reasonable that the rising wholesale price had to meet the military needs and basic necessities provided for war and the gap between the wholesale price and the exchange rate was not large enough to be a sign of inflation. The higher prices lead to increased government spending.
However, from 1919 to 1923 it is lucid that there was a surplus of production for that the skyrocketing price is beyond the public’s real purchasing ability so German had to keep depend on the overseas. Undoubtedly the big gap between them marked the inflation that led to the soaring commodity prices exceeding economic development and then the national property is devalued, which in turn causes the fixed capital goods, such as rent prices rise and have devastating effects on the production .So the enterprise staffs is unemployed, then the society expends drops, the industry enters the drop circulation, the economy falls into the decline.
3.1.2.3The Foreign Indebtedness 外债
German has been racked with material and spiritual torment since the war in that the massive belts pulls him in a financial predicament. Although the Dwes Pan eased the problem with 800.000.000 gold marks as the external loan(Charles Reginald ,1979)，adverse export trade fails to make up for it . Reichsbank slightly broadened the range of fluctuation for the RMagainst the dollar in order to introduce an element of exchange rate risk that might dampen demand for foreign loans.
According to the Youth Plan, Germany was obligated to pay the debtors in foreign currencies and there was no possibility to float a prolonged loan for Germany. Also the rising price from 1914 to 1918 attracted a influx of foreign investments, mainly from the United State. The main part of the nation has been destroyed such as liquid and raw material so economy recovery entails importation. The volume of German exports has fallen by 14 percent in 1931 when compared with that in 1928 and an additional 31percent in the next year. Funds injection was not limited in industry. It is ubiquitous from the federal government, commune to regulatory bodies to facilitate themselves, even for luxury consumption. Despite the banks lend as the short-term loan , it became frozen and the long-time foreign indebtedness increased year by year. What's more, the various assortments of debts from the banks, individuals and the commercial organizations made it worse.
To some extent, the pervasive inflation jolts the national mark and the best solution is to borrow money from other countries. But the point is that it is sounder to say that inflation renders more foreign indebtedness than reparation.
3.1.2.4 The Bank Crisis 银行危机
Banks, as the core of the economy and the main measure of economy status, forecast the looming crisis. Bank crisis means the cash conversion from deposit and the large-scale withdrawal at the same time because the customers think banks are, or might become insolvent. As is known, the deposit-currency ratio is typically considered as confidence index on the grounds that the higher the ratio is, the more willing to deposit money to bank.( Bernanke, 1995). In 1931, the biggest German bank , Darmstdter und Nationalbank (Isabel Schnabel,2002) closed in the wake of the insecurity strengthened by the rapid foreign withdrawals and time deposit and demand deposit falling , which sparked a prolonged confidence loss in other bank system and more withdrawals happened. So did the Reichsbank . Reichsbank , as the focal bank of Germany, produced a very sustainable currency ,namely Goldmark. Mark was devalued by the war expense along with the inflationary pressure. What’s more , the fiasco in the war with a large amount of reparation threw in the wallow of social unrest. According to Dawes Plan, one of the key reforms was the establishment of independent German National imperial government institutions. August 30, 1924, the German National Bank started to issue the German mark as the German currency until 1948. However, Reichsbank was closed in 1945 with the defeat of Nazi Germany #p#分页标题#e#
All of these led to a widespread faith-losing in capitalism and officials took into account lifting the business model from banks in case of ever-worse financial deadlock.
3.1.2.5 Gold Standard金本位
In the World War I, German abandoned the gold standard and adopts the inflationary policy because most money was spent on war, not in productivity, which caused more demands than needs. However, countries desired to return to the same gold standard as the pre-war price especially for Germany because his reparation to France could be paid off by good exportation and gold attainment. Also the return made it easier for countries to sell nominal bonds and attain more seignorage. But there were not enough gold available to meet the whole world money needs. Thus, convertible exchange reserves were adapted to save gold. Due to the insufficient confidence in the authorities ' commitment, destabilizing speculative rose, which ended the interwar gold standard, Austria's largest commercial bank failed in May 1931 and then spread to Germany. In 1914, gold standard could not effectively return to the former level because the country had lost many of the rest of its gold reserves as compensation. Central bank of Germany issued almost unlimited foreign currency for further compensation and resulting in malignant inflation in the 1920s.
3.2 The Effects of the German Crisis of 1931 1931年德国危机的影响
3. 2.1 Political Instability 政治的不稳定性
Germany's Weimar Republic was hit hard by the depression and the political system was on the verge of extremism..The Nazi party became the last hope the time Germans experienced the crisis and felt pressed in money ,even the basic necessities were not guaranteed. The value of the national currency -- the mark -- collapsed. German people were forced to buy goods with hundreds, thousands, and millions of marks. They lost faith in the existing system. And they looked for some new leader to provide solutions. Hitler’s policies enhanced the national strength, promoted the public’s self-esteem and belonging in the short period time .They've got to support the Nazis or willingly controlled by the Nazis and the majority of the population in a very short period of time were involved in the Nazis ' hysterical anti-Semitic, anti-communist activities. Maybe we can conclude that the Nazi party is the cause of the war. There is an inextricable relation between them and the second world war is the aftermath of crisis , stoked by people’s blind admire and shoring up Hitler. He increased the exploitation of other countries, territorial expansion and dictatorship, which leaded retrogression in democracy. As the participating country in the second world war, German attacked European and the whole world . However, it is a double-edged sword. It relieved the unemployment to construct the public projects such as road repairing. Also the macro-control of the economy and increasing inference in the company added some incentive to the prosperity.
3.2.2 The Economic Effects经济影响
The economic effects comprise the microcosm and the macro aspects.
First, it is in microcosm view.
Inflation adjusted the price structure because of price inflexibility and the income distribution. wage and salary earners won the most with prewar boundaries 45.3 and the postwar boundaries 57.9 along with the business class, the real capitalists (Carl-Ludwig 1986) while the rentier income including letting and leasing and financial assets was in a low level and decreased .The agriculture and forestry income decreased by 4.8 from February to October because of the war damage and exploitation from other countries. Also the transfers jumped to 17.6 in October, from which we can conclude that the war as well as the crisis compelled people to transfer capital to forestall the bankruptcy. Wage and salary class sprout up belonging to a high class, no lower class longer. Also the total private income plus undistributed profits from companies increased and the revenues of public enterprises decreased because government expenditure increased and few profits gained. Employee’s contributions to social insurance were volatile in that redundancy was common after the war. But the most disadvantage were the widows, the disabled and pensioners. Taxes not included in private income increased because the government encouraged exportation. Social class changed significantly.
We can see that unemployment has increased dramatically. USA endures the severest unemployment with 37.6 percent and Germany second with 36.2 percent, almost twice than France. Unemployment rate is the best to test the government's ability to cope with the economic crisis, because unemployment is a major problem in society and social stability and a feeling of unity can be guaranteed when unemployment rate declined. The reason that A large number of corporate went bankrupt and due to high prices, wage of fully employed staff could not guarantee their basic livelihood. So we can conclude that the crisis influenced USA and Germany in that most of the loans are from USA and America bank withdrawal threw Germany in the whirlpool of financial deadlock. Also the Germany crisis, to some extent, accelerated world-wide depression.
It is obvious that industrial production, wholesale prices and foreign trade have decreased in a large-scale. For instance, Germany industrial production decreased 41percent, wholesale prices decreased 29 percent, foreign trade decreased 61 percent while unemployment increased 232 percent, forming a big gap between the market demand and talents application. Employment rate, important index of the economy, is concerned with the actual social production, human capital and social security issues.
In the aftermath of the crisis, financial withdrawal was looming, which led Germany banks collapsed for their financial back falling, especially those retained by USA. Investors felt no confidence in Germany market so they shifted the capital to other denominated assets. (Berkeley, 2003) Different versions about bank crisis existed, such as the unreasonable management, inadequate bank policies, effects from other countries and the close link between banks and industries. But the point is that the negative effects could not be neglected. Interest rate dropped, redundancy increased, investment depressed, and heavy-industry hit, especially steel industry.
Second, it is in macro view.
Macroeconomic policy refers to the policy adopted by countries or government consciously in a planned manner to regulate and control its macroeconomic operation further to achieve certain policy objectives. Macro-control is the so-called the basic responsibilities of the public finances, namely the government allocation behavior to compensate for market failure, the provision of public services to the community, or other forms of economic behavior.
The crisis forced the government to change their policies to be tailored to the uncertain market. Free market economy was dominant before. In order to ameliorate the severe slump, government intervention was combined with free adjustment of market，namely positive state intervention policy . Also welfare was brought into attention when Hitler was in power. And workers could enjoy paid vocation every year and even travel abroad. Cars were ubiquitous in all the families. However, side effects were here. Monopoly capitalism rose. Hitler also started State monopoly with large annexation of small enterprises and large private monopolies, expanding the State monopoly capital. Also he plundered the money made by Jews that amounted to 6 million and augmented the national capital.
Also German crisis along with other countries’ crisis comprised the Great Depression throughout the whole world. Undoubtedly, German crisis stoked the violence as one of the most typical slump.
4.0 Conclusion总结
This report probes into the nature of German crisis in 1931. It presents a comprehensive view composed of several theories of the crisis including bank crisis, currency crisis, gold standard, indebtedness and inflation. The paper puts emphasis on the reason why crisis happened in German between the two wars and the devastating effects on the whole world , no matter in economy, politics, culture, or in the daily life so that we notify the depression cycle and forestall it in the future ,especially now the whole world is confronted with economy slump. But the point is that depression is not an incident, but an accumulating process over a prolonged time. The reason why we arrive at such conclusion is from analyzing the accurate dates and information in history，not obtained causally. But it is insufficient to draw a purely accurate conclusion. More research should be projected and dates pieced together. Also comparison between the Germany crisis , the Great Depression and financial crisis in Asia should be made to analysis the different reasons and resolutions.
As is known, the whole world is faced with financial slump in every field resulting from complicated factors. So the best solution to ameliorate and eliminate it entails the meticulous investigation of the previous crisis. Lessons should be learned from the report. Crisis is not sparked by a specific factor, but a consequence of complicated matters. However, it does not mean that we should curb the potential development and muddle through economy furtively. Instead, specific regulatory measures should take to hedge against short-term foreign capital withdrawal for financial stability prevents the more large-scale pervasion. Adequate bank strategies should be accentuated, government supervision highlighted and the public confidence strengthened to estrange the latent economy evil from the root. #p#分页标题#e#
5.0 Reference参考文献
Barry Eichengreen and Peter Temin (2000). “The Gold Standard and the Great Depression”. Contemporary European History, 9, pp 183-207
Carl-Ludwig Holtfrerich(1986). “The German Inflation, 1914-1923: Causes and Effects in International Perspective”.
Charles Reginald Schiller Harris(1979). “The German's Foreign Indebtedness”. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Date.
ISABEL SCHNABEL (2004). “The German Twin Crisis of 1931” The Journal of Economic History, 64, pp 822-871
Martin Hans Petri (2000). “The Causes of the German Banking Crisis of July 1931 in international perspective. Pp148-150
Marcus Nadler, Jules Bogen(1934). “The Banking Crisis (RLE Banking & Finance): The End of an Epoch ”. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Karl Hardach（1976）. “The Political Economy of Germany in the Twentieth Century”. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data.
Frank Clayton Child. “German exchange control, 1931-1938: a study in exploitation”. pp 670.
Hans-Joachim Braun (2011). “The German Economy in the Twentieth Century: The German Reich and the Federal Republic ”. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Manfred Pohl, European(1994). “Handbook on the History of European Banks ”. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Stephen Broadberry, Mark Harrison(2005). “The Economics of World War I”. Cambridge University Press
Manfred F. Boemeke, Gerald D. Feldman, Elisabeth Glaser（1998）. “The Treaty of Versailles: A Reassessment after 75 Years”. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Date
Gerald D. Feldman（1997）“The Great Disorder : Politics, Economics, and Society in the German Inflation 1914-1924”. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Date
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