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印度能源行业的结构，政策和法规
1991年，印度开始把在能源领域的结构性改革作为一个重要的经济目标，从一个封闭的电力行业转型为以市场为基础的开放型经济。电力开发部门对参与发电的私营部门开放。以目前的情况来看，国家电力委员会考虑到下列因素，如电力供应和需求，主板的弱点，财政问题等，分析了印度电力行业的发展趋势，以显示他们对独立电力生产商的影响。在实施改革的权力部门，本文探讨了国有企业的障碍，特别是那些涉及私有化电力市场的发展过程中出现的关键问题。在1991年给出的法案侧重于印度能够并且应该做的法规和制度的改革，而现在开发一个电力市场主要考虑经济效率和社会责任。经分析指出，国外直接投资的部门需求和国家本身的需求在财富分配和财富创造方面不相交。
ENERGY SECTOR STRUCTURES, POLICIES AND REGULATIONS IN INDIA
India initiated structural reforms in the energy sector as a key economic objective while transitioning from a closed to a market based economy in 1991. The Power Sector was opened for private participation in generation of electricity. This paper analyzes the current situation in the Indian Power Sector, taking into account factors such as trends of electricity supply and demand, financial problems of the State Electricity Boards and factors responsible for the weakness of these Boards, to show their impact on Independent Power Producers. The paper examines the key issues arising in the process of implementing the reforms in the power sector, especially those involving privatization of the state-owned enterprises and barriers to the development of electricity market. The paper focuses on how India, given the 1991 legal, regulatory and institutional reforms can and should do now to develop an electricity market that is economically efficient and socially responsible. The analysis identifies the need for Foreign Direct Investment in the sector and the need for the state to disjoint its wealth generation activities from its wealth distribution activities. Specifically the present policies of the government tend to promote centralization, whereas the most pressing need is in rural areas, to fulfill which decentralization initiatives must be pursued. This in turn involves tackling developing country dynamics and using a dual policy perspective so that both the urban and rural needs can be balanced so as to achieve the twin objectives of power sufficiency and efficiency.
TABLE OF CONTENT
Chapter-1 INTRODUCTION
India is now the second fastest growing economy in the world. Despite the current economic slowdown, India is expected to grow at approximately 7-8% this fiscal year. The expanding base of industries and services the main drivers of economic growth is exerting pressure on India’s weak infrastructure. The power sector remains a key infrastructure concern and India’s continued economic growth will depend critically on its ability to meet the growing electricity demand.
Improved access through better grid connectivity, increased certainty of electricity supply and price affordability all play an equally important role in shaping the politics and economics of the sector. India’s pattern of energy demand, consumption and growth, must therefore be understood in the context of its objectives – as a basis for sustaining economic growth. Over the last few years, the story on India’s economic growth has been underlined by the story of India’s power sector.
The power sector has long experienced capacity shortfalls, poor reliability and quality of electricity and frequent blackouts which has been a major impediment to economic growth. Despite reforms introducing private participation during the 1990s, the India’s electricity sector has remained dominated by the state. State utilities remain the dominant institutions within India’s electricity industry, controlling well over half of the electricity supply and the vast majority of distribution.
Electricity as a subject is in the concurrent list of the Constitution of India. It means that both the Union and State Governments can formulate policies and laws on the subject, but the responsibility of implementation rests with the States. Distribution of electricity in particular comes in the domain of the states.
There are a number of significant problems in the Indian power sector that appear intransigent. For example, agricultural subsidies continue to stifle reforms. There is a pressing need for the Indian government to implement a national policy on farm tariffs. At present political "generosity" such as the free grant of electricity to farmers needs to stop in order to make the sector financially more viable and attractive investment. A further bottleneck to progress is lack of adequate fuel resources and poor port facilities in the country. Although a number of initiatives in the coal sector should assist the supply of fuel for power generation, the quantum and reliability of the gas supply remains a concern.
Overall however, after a number of false-starts, the Indian power sector is in the midst of a positive hue and much of that stems from a series of measures sought to liberalize generation, form regulatory commissions, unbundle electricity boards, create transmission as a separate business and introduce distribution reforms. Despite the piece meal approach, these reforms finally coalesced into the Electricity Act 2003. Although the implementation of the Act is far from complete, and progress is patchy across the states, a critical mass of reforms has been achieved and comprehesnive regulatory framework is now in place. This will go a long way in persuading private players and foreign investors to come off their sidelines and participate in the development of one of the world's largest infrastructure markets.
India is facing a major challenge as it seeks to upgrade the entire electricity delivery chain. Given the various constraints on government, primarily the financial ones, private participation in power sector is likely to increase sharply. Government of India (GoI) has recognized the importance of changing its policies and creating an environment conducive to sustainable private sector involvement. But the pace of the reforms of needs to be accelerated, and private developers need to develop more flexible, innovative, and realistic project designs and concepts.
This paper covers an overview of the electricity delivery chain in India. The paper begins with an overview of the industry, the emerging market scenario and It then illustrates the current situation with respect to the in Power Generation, Transmission and Distribution and the risks associated with these system. All the observations on the future trends in the financing of the Power Sector in India are highlighted. The paper concludes with the solutions to deal with these issues of the Power Sector in India
CHAPTER-2 THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR
2.1 A SYNOPSIS OF THE POWER SECTOR
Electrical power is the most vital and essential input for all economic and industrial activities in any country. In India, the primary sources for generating electric power are hydro sources, fossil fuels which include coal, lignite and natural gas and nuclear power, besides non-conventional sources such as wind, biomass, solar etc. a
When India became independent in 1947, the electricity supply was mostly limited to metropolitan cities and big towns. Power stations and associated transmission and distribution network were by some private agencies and, in few cases, by departments of state governments and the Municipal committees. Per capita consumption was merely 16 KWH in 1950. Giving due consideration to the fact that this most basic infrastructure needed to be developed on an industrial pattern, Indian Electricity supply act was enacted in 1948. This Act provided measures to rationalize power industry, envisaged formation of SEB’s with various state governments and a central agency for overall planning, coordination and regulation at the national level. Subsequently, this Act was amended in 1975 providing for establishment of generating companies under the central government.
2.2 STRUCTURE OF POWER INDUSTRY
The broad structure of the power supply industry, as it exists today, consists of the following:
Ministry of Power in the union government of India.
Central Electricity Authority as a statutory technical wing of the Ministry of Power, Government of India, to assist the government in overall planning, coordination and regulation of power development programs of the country.
A number of corporations under the union government to develop and operate power stations which include National Thermal Power Corporation Ltd., National Hydro Electric Power Corporation, etc.
Rural Electrification Corporation, a government of India Company for assisting the SEB’s in development & programs of rural electrification.
Power Grid Corporation under the Government of India to establish and maintain high voltage transmission system and regional load dispatch centers.
Power Finance Corporation under the Government of India to assist various electricity boards and other organization in power sector.#p#分页标题#e#
Department of Energy/Power under various state governments.
State electricity boards (22 in nos.) under respective State Governments to take care of generation of thermal and hydro power as also transmission and distribution within their own states.
The power generation on the nuclear side is handled by another department of Government of India, viz. Department of Atomic Energy which has setup Nuclear Power Corporation.
The whole country is divided into 5 power regions and the planning of generation and transmission system is done on a regional concept.
2.3 PROFILE OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR
2.3.1 EXISTING SCENARIO
2.3.1.1Generation
India is the fifth largest producer of electricity in the world and according to the planning Commission, while the State Governments account for 51.5% of the total
Generation capacity, the central sector and the private sector account for 33.1% and 15.4% of the generation capacity respectively. In line with the respective power generation share, while the government sector (both central and state) have contributed 85.5% of the total capacity addition of 45,295 MW during 1999-00 and 2008-09, the private sector has contributed the balance 14.5%, almost at par with its share in the total installed capacity in the country. Transmission of power is entirely looked after by government utility companies and distribution too barring a few states are in the hands of the government entities.
India’s current installed power generation capacity as on 30th June, 2009 is at 150324 MW as against 89,103 MW during 1997-98 and 132329 MW at the end of March, 2007. In addition to this, the captive power capacity has been pegged at over 24,000 MW at present. The break up with respect to the fuel mix accounts for as per the following
Detailed status for requirement of capacity addition for XIIth plan are under finalization in CEA and as per the preliminary studies, the requirement of capacity addition works out to about 1,00,000 MW. There appears to be a need to set higher target for private sector participation for the XIIth Plan in view of its performance during the XIth Plan.
During the Xth Plan, total investment in the power sector was US$ 60 billion out of which the private sector contribution was US$ 13 billion. The projected investment during the XIth Plan period is US$ 133 billion out of which, the private sector contribution is expected to be around US$ 37 billion or 21%. In physical terms, a target of 78,700 MW has been fixed during this plan period, which has now been finally revised to 68,504 MW.
The financial closure scenario of private capacity addition for 11th plan as per government estimates is given in the table below.
Despite the expected strong growth in capacity addition, India’s power shortage is likely to remain high. On the T & D side, the government has come up with a revised APDRP which will provide support and financial incentives for reduction of T & D losses. This is crucial for sustainable development of power sector, as India has the highest T & D losses in the world. 11th plan under this scheme are targeted to US $10 billion is likely to be spent on rural electrification to achieve government’s target of “Power for all” by 2012.
India ranks fifth in the world in terms of total installed power generation capacity but it ranks as one of the lowest in terms of per capita consumption of power. At the end of December, 2008, the base load deficit stood at 11.7% while the peak load deficit stood at 13.9%. More than 18% of villages and 45% of total households in India still do not have access to power. The peak power shortage, which was around 11-12 % level during the 9th Plan period and the first few years of the 10th Plan, is on an increasing trend and has already, crossed 14% in the current year.
During 2007-08, energy demand reached 737 billion kWh (increasing at CAGR of 5.5% from 507 billion kWh in 2000-01. The supply during 2007-08 however reached 664.6 billion kWh (increasing at a CAGR of 5.1% from 467.4 billion KWh in 2000-01), which only reinforces the glaring demand supply gap.
The Electric Power Survey (EPS) which is conducted by Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has forecasted that the peak demand will be growing at a CAGR of 7.8% in the 11th Plan and the supply is expected to notch up around 6.8 to 7% during this period thereby continuing with the upward trend of power deficit.
With respect to Transmission and Distribution, which are equally critically for the overall success of the Power story in India, huge investments are required in these two segments. Globally every dollar invested in generation has an equal amount invested in T&D. However, in India, traditionally every dollar invested in generation has a corresponding half a dollar invested in T&D. Importantly, as compared to the global average of 50 to 60%, transmission lines in India are loaded to 90% capacity.
With a surge in generation capacity addition, India needs big growth in expenditure on T&D networks to evacuate, transmit and distribute the power produced. Most of India’s coal resources are concentrated in Eastern and Central India, while most hydro resources are in North East. Demand shortages are highest in Northern and Western India. Huge investments are required to expand inter-regional grid capacity. Significant investments are also required to upgrade the distribution infrastructure (to reduce T&D losses) and for rural electrification.
2.3.1.2 TRANSMISSION
The transmission network in India currently reaches about 80% of the population. The transmission infrastructure formerly consisted of five regional grids that were not interconnected into a national grid. The XIth plan envisages an addition of over 60,000 MW of transmission network by 2012, designed to carry 60% of the power generated. The existing inter-regional power transfer capacity is 17,000 MW which is to be further enhanced to 37,000 MW by 2012 through the creation of “Transmission Super Highways”. In 1998, restructuring efforts of the transmission system began with the creation of the Power grid Corporation. The state-owned Power grid (PGCIL) is responsible for transmission of about 40% of the electricity generated in India. India has successfully established links between the regional grids. In order to accomplish the planning objective for 2012, it is imperative to create an investment framework for timely and adequate evacuation infrastructure and transmission facilities.
The transmission forms a vital link of the electricity delivery chain. The different elements of transmission such as policies, regulatory framework, open access, transmission losses, transmission charges, private participation etc. pose a challenge to the evolving Power Sector in India. Merely adding transmission capacity to the existing infrastructure may prove inadequate. It becomes equally imperative to revisit the individual elements in order to remove the constraints in financing. The transmission network is the heart of a competitive market. In today’s scenario, the transmission sector runs the risk of getting trapped between competitive generating and distribution sectors. A lot requires to be accomplished in this sector to realize the vision Power for All by 2012.
2.3.1.3 DISTRIBUTION#p#分页标题#e#
Out of the three sectors of electricity delivery chain, the distribution sector in India has been the most daunting sector. More than 80 % of the total energy consumption is distributed by the public sector while the balance is distributed by the private sector.
The distribution sector is segmented into urban and rural parts. Both segments are distinct with different challenges and concerns. The urban distribution is distinguished by high consumer density coupled with higher rate of demand growth. The consumer mix is mostly commercial, residential, and industrial. Rural distribution segment is characterized by wide dispersal of network in large areas, high cost of supply, low consumer paying capacity, large number of subsidized customers, and un-metered flat rate supply to farmers, non-metering due to high cost and practical difficulties, low load and low rate of load growth. The consumer mix in rural areas is mainly agriculture and residential.
The biggest challenge of the distribution sector is the high Aggregate Technical & Commercial (AT&C) losses. The current AT&C losses are in the range of 18% to 62% in various states with a National average of 30%. The poor condition of distribution sector has attracted the policy makers and regulatory attention. The need to improve this sector was realized was felt at the beginning of X Plan and is ongoing in the XI Plan.
CHAPTER 3
POWER DEVLOPMENT PROGRAMMES: ROAD BLOCKS AND REMIDIES
Past experience lead one to conclude that these targets are virtually impossible to achieve. But given the fact that the sector must make all possible efforts to achieve these, it would be desirable to identify as to why they cannot be achieved and what the road blocks are-at the policy level, at the stages of planning and during execution. It would also be important to brainstorm and generate alternate strategies to remove these road blocks and evolve remedies which can lead to fulfillment of these targets.
There are large number of issues and problems which have merged as road blocks to power development programs. These programs relate to not only creating additional generating capacities but also developing appropriate high voltage transmission networks across the country leading to National Grid, renovating and modernizing poorly performing power stations, and augmenting the present highly inadequate distribution system. The programs would also cover schemes in related input industries such as coal, gas and transportation system. From among large number of issues, the following are the most important loop holes, which impact the power sector massively:
Bankability of projects in context of poor financial health of state utilities.
Deteriorating financial condition of SEB’s.
Inadequate resource availability.
Demand-supply gap is growing.
Operational and technical inefficiencies in system.
Low Hydro-Thermal mix.
Environmental issues.
Sincerity and financial ability of developers
3.1 Bankability of projects in context of poor financial health of state utilities:
The second major road blocks are with respect to the bankability of projects due to poor financial health of state utilities. It is now established beyond doubt that though there are other issues like various clearances, financial closures of power projects having all other clearances have emerged as the strongest obstacle in development of these projects. Consequently, developer’ ability to provide adequate comfort to lenders gets in question. In view of this, a large number of products which could happen are not happening and perhaps could not take off in view of their having gone into such vicious circles. The following courses of action are suggested as remedies:
From among a large number of projects proposed by private developers, we may choose those projects where the state agree to take up time –bound reform programs and action plans, develop business plans demonstrating the simultaneous with commissioning of these projects, there would be enough liquidity to provide comfortable payment security and central government could monitor these milestone based reform programs. Sincerity of the state government and the concerned state utilities and their commitment to the agreed program of action would be essential. Government of India has a scheme which recognizes and distinguishes and rewards committed state as compared to those which do not proceed with reform agenda.
A fewer projects which have been waiting only for financial closure merely on account of payment security problem, could perhaps be taken up if state agrees to allow appropriate distribution to these developers, which will give them control on revenue stream .The state and the utilities would need to recognize that if these developers are asked to take most difficult areas of distribution, like remote agricultural supply, obviously this initiative might fail even before it is taken up. We need to recognize that we need capacity to be added to tide-over the shortages. For this to happen we need investment from all sources. Our initiative would, therefore have to be structured on basis of workable models and principle’s which have reasonable chances of success.
Restoring financial viability of the distribution segment alone can provide sustainable solution. This will require overall restructuring, corporatization, electricity theft control, adequate billing and collection.
3.2 Sincerity and Financial ability of developers
The third major road block is concerning the sincerity and financial ability of developers themselves. A scrutiny of the list of power projects under IPP category would reveal that procedures adopted in a large number of states left a lot to be desired. This resulted in selection of developers, lacking not only in experience in developing power projects but also in not having sufficient financial capability and in many cses even sincerity to develop the projects.
REMIDY:
Suitably conceived criteria and well-structured qualifying requirement for selecting developers could help in avoiding cases where later on it is discovered that financial ability of developers is totally inadequate for undertaking the project intended to be developed
Government of India and the state Government could also consider approaching various groups within country which have established good track record of project development and financial soundness to consider the enormous opportunities that exist in power sector.
3.3 Deteriorating financial condition of SEB’s
Weak financial condition of SEBs was the biggest roadblock for sector’s development Due to un-remunerative tariffs and irregular payment of subsidies by state governments, SEBs have not been able to invest in capacity additions and system up gradation. Also SEBs has not been able to make full payments for the purchases, and therefore their creditworthiness is questionable.
One of the biggest worries for private generators is that they may never get paid for the electricity they produce. Most distribution companies are still under state control, either directly through the SEB or their unbundled successors, and are financially distressed. Commercial losses at SEB in 2004-05 alone are estimated to be INR 225 bn (US$ 5 bn) 5.
Average sales revenue to cost ratio remains well under 70%. Much of these losses result from the underlying tariff structure and low revenue collection rates. The tariff structure is defined by consumer class and a cross subsidy structure is used to subsidies domestic and agricultural users. The higher rates paid by industrial consumers are insufficient to cover the subsidies provided. In addition, revenue arrears, or collection inefficiencies, on average are about 25 – 30%. In some states like Bihar and Jammu and Kashmir, revenue arrears are astoundingly high – as much as 155% and 227% respectively. In a recent rating of SEBs conducted by the Ministry of Power, the median score for financing risk was well short of 10 against a maximum of 23. Only ten states achieved a score greater than 10. While investors may be lured into power projects with promises of long-term agreements, the ability of SEBs to pay for the purchase of electricity still remains questionable. Simple unbundling followed by privatization or corporatization may not be sufficient. The restructuring process must determine who absorbs the existing liabilities and re-establish the financial credibility of electricity purchasing entities.
3.4 Demand-supply gap is growing:
There has been an average shortage of 8-10% for last many years. Total availability of power during the peak hours has remained far behind the peak requirement. According to Electric power survey of India the peak load which was about 68000MW during 1996-97 is estimated to increase over 176000MW in 2011-12, i.e. with an average shortage of 8-10% and a peak shortage of 18-20% and almost 50000MW is needed to be created every 5 years. Thus there is a huge demand-supply gap, which is required to be met.
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Therefore optimum utilization of energy generated occupies an important position in our strategy and there are number of methods to meet the objective:
Energy Conservation
Energy saving
Demand Side Management
3.5 Operational and technical inefficiencies in system
Operational and technical inefficiencies existing in our existing system has been a major road block in meeting our estimated targets. These include low PLF of thermal plants, high T & D losses.etc. Thus have resulted in under-utilization of existing capacities. Mearsures to prevent this are as follows:
Conduction of energy audits to identify the factors causing excessive losses
Installation of capacitors for high voltage level transmission.
Installation of tamper proof meter boxes to check the theft of energy & setting up a vigilance squad to monitor the whole process
Focusing more on R& D in power sector in order to develop technology to minimize losses
3.6 Low Hydro-Thermal mix:
The inherent property of hydro plants is to quickly start and stop. They are more economical & ideal for combination with thermal plants to meet the peaking requirement. They are mainly used as base load stations which adversely affect the optimum utilization of thermal plants and thus putting burden on power sector.
The current Thermal-Hydro mix is of 60-23% and the desired mix is 60-40%. Thus there is a need to accelerate the pace of development of hydro plants.
3.7 Environmental issues:
The next roadblock is the clearances from environmental angle. Both Hydro and coal based projects have been criticized more than they deserve from environmental point of view. In both these areas of project development massive communication is required both at central and state level to counter the propaganda which is mounted by various agencies against the development of projects. Thus it would be essential that all issues are communicated with public, press and media, nationally and internationally. The present procedures for environmental clearances need to be revisited for faster disposal and to remove the road block of longer gestation periods for the development of these projects.
Thus a brief overview of measures which would need consideration in order to overcome above roadblocks is as follows:
Reduction in T & D Losses
Reduction in long gestation period of power projects
Accelerating the pace of Hydro projects development
Optimum utilization of energy surplus
Demand side management
Reforms in SEB’s
Promoting captive/co-generation plants
Modernization and Renovation of existing power plants
Focus on energy efficiency & energy conservation
\Reduction in thefts
Proper fuel-mix is required
Reduction in cost of power & elimination of cross-subsidies
CONCLUSION
The country has gone a long way from installed capacity of merely 1862MW at the time of Independence to the present level of 121000MW. Electricity is a concurrent subject. Up to 1975, generation, distribution and transmission, all were handled practically only by state electricity boards. The Central government has entered this sector only after 1975 and has played an important role in contributing about 32% of total generation capacity of the country. It will continue to play a major role in future too.
The power sector requires an investment of more than 8 lakhs crore in order to have the best power infrastructure in the world. Thus private participation is encouraged over the period of time and they are coming forward in developing projects.
In spite of many efforts taken by government, the power sector at present suffer from shortages, high level of technical and commercial losses, fuel shortages, low plant load factor in some plants, inadequate rural electrification, inefficient utilization of resources etc.
Thus the report brings a unique perspective on what has gone wrong, what needs to be done and what is being done to reform the power sector so as to provide reliable and affordable electricity to all.
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