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改革开放政策与越南
第1部分:概念
一、在马里的事件中有两个概念。粮食危机后，马里政府希望向世界银行和非洲开发银行借钱来构建一个新的道路将食品运输到城市地区。第一个概念是“基础设施”。在定义中，基础设施是指设备，如道路、桥梁、灌溉系统、烛煤等，在促进商品和服务的生产上扮演重要的角色。在马里的背景下,新的道路网络, “基础设施”理解为使食品运输到城市地区,以避免粮食危机后的食物短缺和饥饿。
应用于这个案例研究的另一个概念是“外援”。外国援助是财政援助的一种，是帮助最不发达国家克服贫困的工具。在这种情况下,马里打算从世界银行借贷款2亿美元以及非洲开发银行借贷1亿美元来建造道路。世界银行和非洲开发银行都是致力于借给低收入国家以及低利率贷款,帮助这些国家减少贫困并支持经济发展项目。
Doi Moi Policy And Vietman Economics Essay
Part 1: Concept
a.There are two concepts works in the case of Mali whose Government wants to borrow money from WB and African development bank to build a new road to transport food commodities to urban areas after the food crisis. The first concept is “infrastructure”. In definition, infrastructure are facilities, physical structures such as roads, bridges, irrigation system, cannels, etc… which play important role in facilitating the production of goods and services. In the context of Mali, the new roads network, considered as “infrastructure” enable the transportation of food commodities to the urban areas to avoid the shortage of food and hunger after the food crisis.
The other concept applied to this case study is “foreign aid”. Foreign aid, a kind of financial assistance is an instrument to help LDCs overcome poverty. In this case, Mali intended to borrow a loan of 200 million USD from World Bank and 100 million USD from African development bank to build the road. Both World Bank and Development bank are dedicated to lend low income countries a loan with low interest rate to help those countries reduce poverty and support economic development projects. Hence, the loans that Mali expected to borrow from WB and ADB are foreign aids.
b. Although Mali’s Government proposed a law bill of 340 million USD to build the road but it finally failed to pass due to the objection of some members. Those people argued that it would have negative effect on the BoPs of Mali. According to the bill, to build the road network, the Government would borrow 200 million USD from the World Bank and 100 million USD from African Development Bank, and the rest, only 40 million USD withdraw from the Government budget. It’s clear that nearly 90% of the expense for the road construction would be from the foreign aids and it would be recorded as the debts/ deficit items. It would be definitely do a “minus” in the Mali’s BoPs. Moreover, Mali, an agricultural country, might be impossible to pay back the debts for these banks or generate any positive effect on the BoPs by economic activities because of the frozen business sectors along with three forth of population affected by the food crisis. To approve the law bill, it would be easy to cause a balance of payment crisis. That’s the reasons why the opposition member attempted to disapprove the plan of the Government.
Part 2: Doi Moi Policy
In 1986, Vietnamese government came up with a lucid decision which was applying Doi moi Policy to recover and develop the economy. This economic reform was supposed to be a transit process from central planned economy to social market-based economy which involves the control of the State. In other words, the closed economy changed to an open one to integrate in the world economy. The social market economy operates by both State and market. It can promote the efficiency of allocation of production to maximize benefits through competition and at the same time, the control of state can help avoid market failure such as: inflation, gap between rich and poor, economic crisis, etc. By Doi moi policy, Vietnam also established relationship with foreign trade partners, encouraged FDIs, and especially industrialize and modernize the economy by expanding import-export market. However, the policy mainly focused on export promotion strategy. And also, as Mr Nguyen Tan Dung said, it was important to meet the demands of Vietnamese people. In fact, in the first 20 year after Doi moi (from 1986-2005), the annual percentage share of imports was still greater than exports. For instances, the balance of trade in the period of 1985-1990 was -5653 million USD, in 1990-1995 was -5628 million USD, in 1995-2000was -9789 million USD, and in 2000-2005 was -19321 million USD). The reason is that, in the process of economy recovery, the available goods and services domestically produced haven’t been supplied adequately to serve all the interests of people quickly. Nevertheless, the purpose of import in the advocacy of the government was to promote the export in the long term by importing less daily goods and import more production materials like: machine, technologies. This strategy will encourage the domestic enterprises, private businesses to compete and develop as well as improve the quality of goods and services in Vietnam. Export promotion policy has been implemented step by step up to now with significant achievements. Only one year after the renovation, Vietnam from a poor country became rice exporting country. Economic crisis along with inflation were completely prevented.
b. The 10 recommendations of Washington Consensus in 1990s has been used as an orientation for countries especially developing nations to follow the standard market-based economy and provide advises to deal with economic issues. Coming back to the process of economic renovation of Vietnam, the Government also referred the recommendations of Washington Concensus to adjust its economy to become a social market based economy most effectively. In regards to the fiscal policy, Vietnam was more flexible in response to the change of price in the market in order to adjust rationally the exchange rate and interest rate.
Following the recommendation on trade liberalization, Vietnam has opened the markets to attract foreign trade, totally changed from closed market to an open one, and from central planned to social market oriented economy. Domestically, the private businesses were encouraged and free to operate. At international level, up to now, Vietnam has expanded trade partnership with 221 nations and territories. Vietnam is still on its way to liberalize the trade by attempting to reduce the taxes, tariffs and remove the trade barriers. Besides, opening the door for foreign countries also attract a big amount of foreign direct investment to Vietnam. That means the liberalization of inward FDI that was mentioned in the Washington Consensus. The decentralization of the Government on economic management and the privatization of state enterprise in Article 8 and 9 of the Consensus were also implemented during the Vietnamese economic reform.
Part 3: Short essay
Trade liberalization, in recent years has been deployed in many developing countries to reduce poverty and improve the economy. However, in addition to potential benefits that trade liberalization brings about, it also have negative impacts on the balance of payments if these countries don’t establish efficient import and export policies. Amelia Santos-Paulino recommended that “Developing countries should liberalize export first (‘as opposed to import’) or risk a Balance of Payment Crisis”. This essay aimed at indicating the impact of trade liberalization through import and export activities of low income countries, and explaining why for these countries the export restrictions must be removed sooner than import, otherwise it will cause a balance of payment crisis.
Firstly, to understand the entire problem, it’s necessary to consider the relation between trade liberalization and the balance of payment of a country. Trade liberalization, in the context of international trade, is the removal or reduction of the trade barriers such as tariffs, taxes, quotas,…that facilitates the flow of goods and services of one country to another country. Among the transactions between nations, import and export are the most popular activities in international trade. To developing nations, thanks to trade liberalization, they have more chances to export the products that they have comparative advantage in manufacturing to other countries especially developed country and vice versa import their comparative advantaged goods. On the other hand, BoP (balance of payment) is the record of financial transactions of a country with others including the payments of import and export. Any transactions that require the payments from the foreigners to domestic residents are accounted as credit and in the reverse way, as debit. In term of trade, exporting a product to foreign countries will generate a positive effect on BoPs and importing goods or services from outside will generate a negative effect on BoPs. A balance of payment crisis occurs when there are much more debits than credits and that nation will suffer from large budget deficit. Considering the context of developing countries with trade liberalization, when the payments for imports are much higher than exports’, there will be a BoPs crisis.
Back to reality, most developing countries today meet the difficulties in balancing the amount of imports and exports. Unfortunately, the quantity of goods imported has the tendency to be higher than the quantity of goods exported for a LDC. Moreover, the research of Stantos-Paulino also mentioned that the response of export to trade liberalization is slower than import. Thus, the balance of trade will be under zero and it will accidently mark a minus in the balance of payments of the country. This phenomenon is definitely easy to understand for low income countries when beginning to deploy trade liberalization. On account of LDC’s characteristics, the comparative advantaged products of these countries are normally primary goods, raw materials which are available in the country’s resources or kind of products that do not require high technologies to manufacture. These products are often cheaper than the comparative advantaged products of developed countries which LDC imports. Otherwise, low income countries in long term, expecting to export higher quality/more advanced more valuable outputs also have to import the production materials like machines, high technologies… from developed countries. Therefore, in the case of developing nations, import volume is always higher than export volume and the income from exports is always lower than the outflow of money spent for imports. Also, in term of the response of import and export to trade liberalization, it’s obvious that importing goods and services from developed countries for an LDC is much easier than exporting goods and services to more developed countries. Less developed countries are normally poor in conditions: lack of infrastructures, unskilled labor, low technologies, etc. These disadvantages make them unable to meet the demand of people for all kind of daily consuming products. Moreover, the low conditions take them more time and more labor to produce goods and services to export to other countries while it take much less time to import products for daily consumption from outside to meet the immediate needs of their citizen. That why economists did suggest developing country to liberalize export first in international trade.#p#分页标题#e#
Indeed, it’s undeniable that the trade liberalization brings about lots of benefit to developing countries in long term with regards of economic development. Nevertheless, at the beginning of international trade process, LDCs are possible to be trapped by the balance of payment deficit due to the exceeding of imports in comparison to exports as mentioned above. Hence, the only effective way to promote trade liberalization without sinking into the currency crisis is to loosen the export restrictions first rather than import restraints. The reduction or removal of export barriers brings more benefit and encourages domestic businesses and enterprises operate more effectively, more competitive to produce higher quality and greater quantity of outputs to export to foreign countries. It’s also a kind of export promotion strategies. Simultaneously, imports should be limited and levied more restrictions in order to restrain the BoPs deficit due to the unbalanced trade. For instance, Vietnam, a developing country, from 1986 has applied both export promotion and import substitution policy to enhance the balance of payments. Vietnam advocate to limit the imports of daily consumed goods and only import production materials, technologies so as to improve domestic production and well as foster exports in the long term process. As a result, Vietnam didn’t encounter a currency crisis and became the second largest rice exporter in the world. Another important issue that the Government of developing nations should consider is the exchange rate. It affects the value currency in the trade transactions between countries and leads to elasticity of import and export’s prices, thus, might have negative effects on the BoPs. Hence, Governments are recommended to establish rational fiscal and monetary policies to solve this problem.
To sum up, without the wisdom of the Government in setting up polices and strategies to control the effects of trade liberalization, developing countries cannot overcome a balance of payment crisis caused by the disparity between exports and imports. To balance the trade, it’s suggested that exports should be firstly considered to remove the barriers so that the BoPs crisis can be prevented.
Part 4: Long essays
To Mr. Morgan Tsvangirai – Prime Minister of Zimbabwe,
After the political unrest, Zimbabwe is suffering the worst economic crisis ever, as World Bank stated: “The Zimbabwean economic meltdown is the worst outside a warzone”. The economic crisis of Zimbabwe must definitely be prevented in emergency; otherwise the country’s socio-economy could be completely ruined. This report is conducted to consult the Government with some economic development policies to recover the collapsed economy and overcome social issues. Hereby are some policy recommendations for an Emergency short term plan which can be used as temporary and urgent solutions to help the Government deal with the problems of unemployment, poverty and to attract the foreign direct investment.
Firstly, in the current situation of stalled economy accompanied by social unrests and raging poverty, it’s essential to mobilize the resources to handle all the economy reconstructing activities. These financial resources can only be the loans from international banks, foreign aids, foreign direct investments and remittances from migrants. The initial thing to do before establishing policies to recover the economy is to send messages to the international community and donors to call for helps. Zimbabwe Government should write a report on the overall current situation of the country and propose a plan of reconstructing the economy with the costs and figures in details then send it to the World Bank or International Monetary Fund. Also, searching for donors to claim for assistance of FDI is an active and effective way to quickly create the fund for the economy recovery. The messages calling for helps should include the Government promises and its attempts to revive the collapsed economy. For example, Zimbabwe will try to negotiate for the removal of economic embargo, Zimbabwe will ask WB and IMF for the national structural adjustment, Zimbabwe promise to stabilize the politic, create the most favorable conditions for the operation of donors in the countries, and Zimbabwe also encourages the Diasporas to come back and serve their hometown and help the country to rebuild the economy.
The cost to reconstruct the ruined economy is estimated 5 billion USD, thus Zimbabwe Government should proposed to fund a total of 2 billion USD from both WB and donors. This amount of money is also enough the initial needs to build the economy. Once money provided, to begin the process of country economic reform, the Government is suggested to focus on 3 following key policies: Employment Policy, Investment and Industrialization Policy and Poverty and Social policy.
In regards to Employment policy, this policy is very necessary to reduce the unemployment rate by creating jobs for 200000 people within the next four years. Considering the context of Zimbabwe, the potential jobs mostly come from: public commodities and infrastructure construction, tourism, agriculture sector and export production. Because Zimbabwe still lack of many infrastructures such as schools, hospitals, traffic and transportation system, and other public buildings, etc. , the construction of these buildings is needed not only for redressing the face of country but also for solving the problem of unemployment. According to my estimation, it will contribute to create 10000 jobs per year. Tourism has been for many years a potential market for Zimbabwe to develop the economy because this country owns beautiful nature that attract a large number of tourists. If this industry is invested and recovered, it will also help reduce the quantity of unemployed. To promote the development of tourism, Government should loosen the regulations on visas and immigration procedures to facilitate and welcome foreign tourists to the country. Advertisements and introduction Zimbabwe culture to outside world through mass media are also needed. Besides, agriculture, the main sector in Zimbabwe’s economy, would attract many employees than any other sectors. Tobacco and maize were the two spear products of Zimbabwe agriculture but now they even have to import it. To develop agriculture in order to create jobs, the Government should subsidy fertilizer and invest in irrigation system to recover yield of these two products. One more solution to create more jobs is that the Government should follow the export oriented policy to encourage domestic enterprises and businesses to expand.
The next policy that the Government is suggested to be considered is the Investment and Industrialization Policy. The problem of hyperinflation is the most serious and difficult problem in Zimbabwe. The current hyperinflation rate is 250,000% which pushes Zimbabwe into dilemma. In fact, Zimbabwe people do not have money or incentives to save in the banks since the inflation is too high to compensate for the saving interest rate. This sign warns the Government to do something to increase the interest rate to get cash flow back to the bank. However, the inflation here is because the crash of economy and the lack of prestige of the government, therefore, the Government should prioritize economic growth goal by applying low interest rate to encourage investment so that more jobs are created and economy can be rebuilt. When jobs appear again, then the economy becomes stable, the inflation rate will reduce because getting more incomes from works, people will have more incentives for saving and investment. Later on, Government needs to have some adjustment on the interest rate and lending interest rate in order to mobilize national investment. Furthermore, to create an effective incentives system for export earnings, the export promotion policy as mentioned in the previous paragraph will always work. The more advantages the Government creates for businesses, the more exports volume as well as export earnings are. Also, tourism will bring about the inflow of foreign currency from foreign tourists to the home country. For mobilizing 50 USD of FDIs in the next three years, it’s necessary to keep the fixed exchange rate so as to ensure the investors the amount that they can earn when investing in Zimbabwe. The break of tax for the first 5 to 7 years is also an incentive in fiscal policy for FDIs.
With regard of fighting poverty and society stabilization, the Poverty and Social Policy should be established by the Government. Poverty reduction must be always considered as the top priority in the development strategy of each nation. For Zimbabwe, under the situation of severe food shortage, malnourished population and the hyperinflation rate which make the people unable to buy even a loaf of bread, the Government should urgently call for the aids of international donors and humanitarian organization to guarantee the basic needs of the Zimbabwean. Moreover, to improve the living standard and income of citizen, Government also act to call for the support of NGOs, IGOs or microfinance institutions to create jobs or help people operate their own businesses. Allowances and subsidies from the Government are really needed for poor farmers. In term of social problems, Zimbabwe encounters serious human health problems and extremely poor healthcare system. 1 among 4 Zimbabwean suffers from HIV- AIDS, among 8000 citizen, there is only one doctor. Therefore, it’s imperative to invest more in healthcare system, build more hospitals, clinics, medical offices… and at the same time calling for help of WHO and giving out policies that encourages people to go to hospitals. In addition, to avoid illiteracy and raise the awareness of people in the prevention of HIV AIDs and other diseases, education should be invested. Printing money emergently for investment in healthcare and education is also an effective solution at this moment to quickly deal with those problems.#p#分页标题#e#
In conclusion, all of the recommendations above focusing on 3 key element policies: employment, investment and industrialization, poverty and social policy would somehow resolve the existing socio-economic problems in Zimbabwe and help revive the bleak economy. These three policies when implementing will supplement and assist each other to make the best efficiency. However, every policies and strategies must be considered carefully before actions so as to avoid the failure. Hopefully, these recommendations will works.
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