|
随着中国经济在20世纪80年代的发展,印度经济的低增长差异受到了质疑。然而,这种差距在过去的十年经济增长率中大幅下降,印度的自信心有了大幅度的升高,但随着日益增长的全球经济衰退,又开始出现了一个问题那就是哪个国家在承受长期的危机时会做得更好。上海和孟买的经济体是如此的不同,城市代表了各自国家电子商务的先锋。
从上海的磁悬浮列车,广泛的道路网络,大规模的重建项目,许多工业园区和高耸的摩天大楼,反映出中国威权中央政府自上而下的出口政策。在中国,没有一个目标是如此的雄心勃勃的,只凭拆迁团队和一批混凝土搅拌机是不能实现的
孟买,相比之下是既大又混乱,基础设施行业的崛起,其辉煌的背面是贫民窟解决工厂和全球性总部,反映出印度的官僚主义,社会主义的遗产,民族多样性和民主制度的派别。这是因为印度的企业文化在增长。
信贷紧缩在印度和中国的影响-Effects Of Credit Crunch In India And China Finance Essay
With the growth of China’s economy in the 1980s, the difference in the lower growth of the Indian economy was questioned. However, this gap in growth rates has declined significantly over the past decade, India’s confidence has elevated, but with the onset of the growing global recession there is again a question of which country will do better in being able to withstand the crisis for a longer period. Both the economies are so diverse as Shanghai and Mumbai, cities that represent the vanguard of electronic commerce in each nation.
From Shanghai, with its magnetic levitation train, the extensive road network, the massive redevelopment projects, many industrial parks and towering skyscrapers, reflecting the central top down and export policies aimed at China's authoritarian government. In China, no goal is so a
mbitious that the demolition team and a fleet of concrete mixers can not achieve.
Mumbai, by contrast is large and chaotic, its infrastructure under the rise of industry, its brilliant cons favelas settlement factories and global headquarters, reflecting the bureaucracy of India, the socialist legacy, ethnic diversity and factious of democratic institutions. It is because of India’s entrepreneurial culture that it has been growing.
In the struggle to cope with the financial and economic crisis, the comparison may seem to China that has a wide range of tools at their disposal than India. However, China is larrgely dependent on its exports that leads to about 40% of its Gross Domestic Product(GDP) and this area can be difficult for it to prevail over.
India is less exposed to exports, which represent only about 20% of its GDP. However, the country is vulnerable on foreign exchange reserves, fiscal deficits and capital flows, the key factors in the government's ability to influence the economy through fiscal policy, monetary policy and direct intervention in the private sector. In all respects, China has a greater capacity, given its huge foreign exchange reserves and extensive powers of government.
Foreign exchange reserves of China that are about $ 2 trillion are well above India, which are almost 250 million dollars and the government relies on them to defend the Indian rupee as in March 2008 the Indian rupee had lost 27% of its value to the U.S. dollar. According to Byker, the foreign exchange reserves in India have been falling by more than $ 50 million while China’s has been growing at a slower rate due to its exports.
A reason for this could be India’s decision to move its foreign capital out due to the financial crisis, this also affected its real estate and securities markets as India is very susceptible to variations in these areas because of its reliance on short-term capitals like portfolio investment flows and bank lending abroad. On the other hand in China the capital flows are steady as a result of the increased input from its Foreign Direct Investments (FDI).
Overview of India
India has been growing at a rate of 30% yet it has faced the consequences of recession. This scenario can be understood by comparing the credit markets in India from that of the west. In west the major issue with credit is its inadequate supply. (Monga, 2008). It is not the same in India as most of the funds from abroad and from the non bank sources that india relies on are not being sufficient, an instance of this can be seen in the case between 2007 to 2008 when most of the funds (i.e. about 40%) that were accessible to industries in India had been taken or borrowed from markets abroad, and also through the issues of new shares. With the credit crunch all these sources from abroad were gradually fading and they were concetrating on their own banks for credits. It is in such a situation that the whole focus shifts on the banks for the supply and compensation of credit and not the external sources. This would definitely lead to a credit crunch in India since the requirement of credit in growing largely.
In order to be able to manage during credit crunch and increase the overall credit, India can bank on certain sources that can ensure it’s credit supply, as observed from the basic accounting terms. These sources include- 1. the government, that can cut short its demands and use that credit for the other sectors thus helping private sectors. 2. the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) 3. profits from its own companies, 4. the public from non-banks and 5. abroad. Reducing interest rates may help resolve the credit crisis in a number of ways.
First, by reducing the cost of bank financing and increase its margins, this could increase their profitability. Secondly, it may also help profitability, which has two positive effects: increasing own source of funding - the benefits - it reduces the demand for bank credit to enterprises, and improving asset quality of banks, freeing resources for lending.
Finally, the rates of decline in profitability could help attract foreign capital in the stock market. This again against the credit crisis by increasing the non-banking finance companies and therefore reduce their demand for bank credit.
We also see that despite all the economic gloom Wikipedia BRIC countries could reverse the downward trend. Recent forecasts predict that India's economy growing by 5.1% in 2009, despite the recent reforecast by the IMF, while many European countries will experience negative growth of almost 2%. This is good news for business and investment in India and those who believe the market. For companies in the industry of cosmetics and toiletries, the news is even better. Sales in this segment increased 46% over the period 2002-2007 and should continue at this pace until the 201 2. An exhibition of this market town is ingrethents cosmetics in India, which has also experienced similar growth. For the 2008 edition, the number of visitors has increased by 65% with 2588 people coming through the doors in just 2 days! Companies wishing to tap the growing market of India welcomed the opportunity to exhibit at In-Cosmetics India, providing a unique platform for suppliers of personal care ingrethents and buyers to meet. Clariant is an example, Global Business Director, Elmar Busch, said: "For us, in cosmetics in India is a success story and we will continue to exhibit in the coming years, because we believe there is a real market for our products in India "(Ligang & Wing, 2008).
In fact, many companies have already signed for the 2009 event, including Ajinomoto, B & T, BASF, Germany, India Chemspark, Cognis, Gattefossé, ICI India, Kuhs, Laboratories and Sinergie Yasham sérobiologiques BioScience, by name a few. Perhaps these companies have heard the predictions of research organizations that India is not likely that those most affected by the economic crisis because of its emerging middle class. Absolute growth rates are expected to remain positive, although less than expected a few years ago. Ravi Raghavan, director of the Indian publication, Chemical Weekly, agrees: "The cosmetic industry in India in its early stages, must maintain a growth rate higher than in other more mature markets. Although absolute rates will somewhat lower than expected at the beginning of the recession, it still offers significant scope for suppliers ingrethent. There will be cost pressures mounting in the industry, but innovative companies that can be addressed through appropriate alternatives, with the support of good science and application development support, will be the winners.
At a time when many nations in the world are afraid of the credit crisis, it seems that Abu Dhabi is to resist the trend. A major local developer is announcing Q3 earnings three times more than a year ago and the trend is expected to continue next year, according to a recent Reuters poll.
Chinese Perspective
In a whirlwind of financial summit meetings, China ponders how to influence found. "We swim together or we sink together," said European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, European and Asian leaders gathered in Beijing for a summit on October 24 and 25, which was dominated by the global financial crisis ( Ligang & Wing, 2008). But China, proclaiming relatively harmless, no hurry to act.
The crisis pushes the world's fourth economy, with the largest reserves of foreign exchange, the conference center at the World Summit. Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said China will "actively participate" in a meeting of world leaders called by George Bush to discuss the issue on November 15. After the Asia-Europe Meeting, or ASEM, Wen presided over Russia and Kazakhstan, held a pow-wow of Central Asian leaders, for more talks with global finance first (rank Turner, 2008).#p#分页标题#e#
But all acknowledged their confidence in their future (the impact is limited and controllable, Wen said) and suggested that their hopes for a world order dominated by financial fewer U.S. and its dollar, China will not throw its weight around. At the ASEM, the seventh such meeting since 1996, biennial, China echoed Barroso calls for concerted international action. But he had some ideas to suggest that this implies. Most of the international financial system regulation, Wen proposed unadventurously (Turner, 2008).
The more specific idea discussed by the ASEM Asia was the creation of a fund of $ 80 million by mid-2009 to help countries in the region to address liquidity problems - a plan already agreed in May Most of the money that comes from China, Japan and South Korea, but details of how each contributes and how the funds will be administered have been announced yet.
For China, with 1.9 trillion U.S. dollars in reserves, and Japan, with nearly $ 1 trillion, the amount offered is not very strong. But countries are more likely to exert more influence. The participating countries, which also include the ten members of the Association of Southeast Asia are much more turbulent and divergent views, especially on the role of China and Japan in Asia. Most of them are too sensitive about sovereignty to join a real involvement with it.
China ASEM leaders, said his priority was to keep his works, the economy itself. This, according to Wen, China was "the greatest contribution to the world" (Ishikawa, 2009). Economic growth in China has slowed recently, exceptionally, a single rate to two digits (9% in the third quarter) and many economists expect that to continue next year. However, its buoyancy is a comfort to Asian countries, many of which offer a trade surplus with China and the European Union, for which China is the fastest growing market - however, Europeans like to say when complain about trade barriers on Chinese, yet larger than Switzerland. At least European complained successive years of the depreciation of the yuan against the euro, making European exports more expensive, have been silenced by a reversal of the trend.
China seemed at first reluctant to let the financial crisis dominated the agenda of ASEM. But he lost nothing to do. It has diverted attention from climate change, another important issue of concern. The Europeans want China to make stronger commitments to reduce carbon emissions. But if there are concerns about the ASEM behind by China as it focuses more on boosting growth and employment, the participants were too good ways to address publicly (as all of them was too discreet to complain that Taiwan, fifth largest economy in Asia, is still not represented at the ASEM, due to objections from China).
A shared sense of crisis has also given China a face-saving way to take part in some fence repair. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had angered the Chinese by meeting the Dalai Lama in September last year, was told by President Hu Jintao at a meeting in the framework of China's relations with Germany were "good" ( Ishikawa, 2009).
To the extent that a Chinese leader will never say that all is forgiven. The new Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso has also been very well received, despite its views between China and skeptical, and although he has just signed a security pact with India, including some at least in China was against his country. Japan and China agreed to establish a hotline. China and Vietnam have agreed to end its land border controversy marking the end of the year.
But if China savors the attention it commands such meetings, which is resisting the temptation to value in their relations with the United States. There are concessions in China. Could be the end of de facto power of the U.S. veto in the IMF. Recently, he was showing his resentment that blocking the publication of a report prepared by the IMF to examine whether China is manipulating its exchange rate for the sake of commercial advantage. A Chinese newspaper has said that America must give up its control over the IMF in exchange for China contributes to the crisis. But the government goes too far in public.
In Russia, a concern whose leaders have strong from China to America, Wen not afford to say that developing countries should have more votes in a new financial system. He also expressed the need to "diversify" the world monetary system, a polite way of saying the dominance of the dollar should decline. But the final ASEM statement said the IMF should play a key role in assisting countries seriously affected. His only caveat is that it must be "at their request.
Albert Keidel of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think-tank in Washington, says China "will not be considered a problem for the power" at this stage of economic development. However, it also argues in a recent article that could have future problems like the recession in the West, he believed that China could Ride Out, Stokes protectionist demands. The crisis could also result in the Chinese economy that provided the United States before - long before 2030, Mr. Keidel suggests. Hard as Chinese diplomats are trying to bring a friendly face would be a psychological blow for the Americans.
After several years of unchecked growth, China's developers have faced the global credit crisis. Combined with the willingness of Chinese authorities to slow things down a bit, shares many of the largest listed property developers, China fell more than 50 percent from their highs last year in response to concerns that investors Some developers may be forced into bankruptcy. The authorities have taken a particularly aggressive to limit credit growth and are committed to introducing a new policy difficult to reduce holdings of the promoters of the earth, a frame (Ishikawa, 2009).
In summary, the expected participation of more ads have been suspended, but signs were more troubling debt market. According to BNP Paribas, China and Agile Property Greentown China saw credit spreads on credit default swaps (which allow investors to buy insurance against default) increase by over 50% in the last six months, indicating a high level of uncertainty among investors.
|
 |
|||
| 网站地图 |
