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当前企业基于财务指标的预警系统,忽视了非金融企业危机的因素,这可能会导致一些列的问题。本文在平衡计分卡的框架下,构建了企业预警结合的金融和非金融模型。采用功效系数法,介绍了预警模型来量化的方法,以帮助企业监控和预报预警警度,及时采取措施,避免财务风险。
目前,企业基于财务指标的预测预警模型忽略了非金融因素可能会导致企业危机，这导致预测预警的及时性不是很好。本文依据框架的效率系数的方法,基于金融和非金融因素构建一个企业预测预警模型。本文还使用效率系数的方法来量化预测预警模型,以帮助企业监控预警程度,预测预警情况,然后采取措施避免金融风险。
此外,在绩效评估方面,美国著名会计教授罗伯特•卡普兰(Robert s。卡普兰)提出了“平衡计分卡”(平衡计分卡,以下简称BSC)的概念,打破了传统的注重财务指标的业绩管理方法。虽然平衡计分卡是一种绩效评估系统,但企业预警模型的建设也有一定的启示:企业危机的特点是金融危机,而金融危机的根源是多方面的,因此,企业预警模型关注财务预警的同时,还应注意引发金融危机。
The enterprise early warning model based on the balanced scorecard to explore The current enterprise early warning system based on financial indicators, ignored the non-financial factors of enterprise crisis, and the timing of the warning is generally poor. Under the framework of the balanced scorecard, this paper constructs the enterprise early warning model of combination of financial and non-financial. Efficacy coefficient method and introducing the early warning model to quantify, to help enterprises to alert degree of the monitoring and forecast warning instance, take timely measures to avoid financial risk. 【 key words 】 enterprise early warning model of the balanced scorecard efficacy coefficient method Research on Enterprise Forecast Warning model -based on Balanced Scorecard WangWei Wuzhou University in 543002 Abstract: Currently ,the Enterprise Forecast Warning model based on financial indicators Ignored the Non-financial factors which may cause enterprise crisis.and the timeliness of Forecast Warning is normally bad. In the framework of the Method of Efficiency Coefficient,This paper build an Enterprise Forecast Warning model Combined by Financial and Non-financia factors. this paper also use the Method of Efficiency Coefficient to quantify the Forecast Warning model ,in order to help the Enterprise Monitoring Warning degree, Forecasting Warning situation, then taking measures to avoiding Financial risks. Key words: Enterprise Forecast Warning model; The Balanced Scorecard; The Method of Efficiency Coefficient At present, the enterprise early warning system is mainly based on the index system of financial early warning system. The essence of which is based on the analysis of financial statements and related business information, monitor the actual financial position deviation degree of the strength of the line, and to take effective measures to control the financial risk warning signal [1]. However, according to the theory of modern enterprise, the enterprise is the ultimate point of the contract. Therefore, the enterprise crisis from the source should be various, might involve contract of each node. In addition, in terms of the performance evaluation, the famous American accounting professor Robert Kaplan (Robert s. Kaplan) proposed the "Balanced Scorecard" (Balanced Scorecard, hereinafter referred to as BSC) concept, breaking the traditional focus on financial indicators of performance management methods. Although the balanced scorecard is a performance evaluation system, but the construction of early warning model of the enterprise also has the certain enlightenment: enterprise crisis characterized by financial crisis, but the root causes of the financial crisis is multifaceted; Therefore, the enterprise early warning model focusing on the financial early warning for at the same time, also should pay attention to trigger a financial crisis, the source of the indicators. This paper based on the financial indicators, in the framework of the balanced scorecard, build enterprise financial and non-financial, quantitative and qualitative combined with long-term enterprise early warning model. I the basic structure of the enterprise early warning model The balanced scorecard performance evaluation of enterprise can be divided into Financial (Financial), Customer (the Customer), Internal business processes (Internal Process), and Learning and growing, Learning and Growth) four dimensions (Perspective). [2] for this reason, the enterprise long-term warning model by financial early warning, early warning customers, internal business process, learning and growing warning four modules. The financial early warning is the core, other modules of the early warning information is the root of detonation next financial early warning. Therefore, customer, internal business process, learning and growing three warning module can be directly to the enterprise early warning system for alarm, but can be by report to enterprise early warning system for financial early warning module, of course, the former is more advantageous to the enterprise to take effective measures to control financial risk in a timely manner. Enterprise early warning model of concrete structure as shown in figure 1. (1) solvency early-warning index 1. The current ratio = current assets/current liabilities. 2. The quick ratio = quick assets/current liabilities. 3. The speed ratio = speeding move assets/current liabilities, speeding fixed assets = money + short-term securities, notes receivable + high credibility, net receivables. 4. Has won multiple interest = total earnings before interest and tax/interest payments. 5. Asset-liability ratio = total debt/total assets. 6. = this disposable cash resources security of cash/number of this period is expected to cash. (2) the operating ability of early warning indicators 1. Inventory turnover (number) = cost of goods sold/inventory average balance. 2. The average inventory occupation = (Σ various inventory occupied by this kind of inventory amount)/Σ all inventories. 3. The accounts receivable turnover ratio = operating income/average balance of accounts receivable. 4. Sales and accounts receivable sensitive coefficient = sales rate of change/accounts receivable turnover. 5. Current assets turnover ratio = operating income/average balance of liquid assets, reflects the enterprise current assets utilization efficiency. 6. The total asset turnover = operating income/average total assets balance, used to evaluate the utilization efficiency of enterprise's total assets. 7. Finished goods inventory backlog rate = (stock inventory - safety reserve) per year on average inventory. 8. The proportion of non-performing assets. (3) the profitability of early warning indicators 1. The operating profit margin = operating profit/revenue. 2. The return on total assets = ebit/average total assets. 3. Return on equity = after-tax profit/net assets, used to measure the use of their own capital efficiency. 4. Cost margins = (operating profit/total cost), the indicators reflect each costs one yuan of the proceeds of the reward. 5. Economic value added (EVA) = earnings before interest and tax - capital takes up several x comprehensive cost of capital. Compared with traditional indicators, taking into account the economic added value the equity capital cost of enterprise, can compare image, intuitively reflect the enterprise's ability to create new value. Economic value added in quantity is equal to the business proceeds after deducting cost of all the elements of surplus value. Therefore, it is a concept of "total factor compensation". [3] (4) the development ability of early warning indicators 1. Operating income growth rate = operating income growth in current/total operating income of the previous period, if the enterprise operating income growth rate over a period of time less than in the growth of market capacity, is an early warning signal. 2. The growth rate of fixed assets = annual net fixed assets/beginning of fixed assets, the index shows that the development of the enterprise scale and the update of the fixed assets. 3. The growth rate of r&d = annual r&d spending at the beginning of the net increase/total r&d spending, the index reflecting the change trend of corporate r&d input and rapid response ability in business innovation. 4. Capital preservation increment rate = the final owner's equity/beginning the owner's equity, the indicators reflect changes in the enterprise net assets after deducting objective factors increase or decrease, is the concentrated reflection of enterprise development ability. (5) cash flow ability index 1. The cash flow ratio = cash inflow/outflow cash, used for analysis and forecast the overall support capability of cash inflows of cash outflows. Index > 1 shows that the needs of the enterprise overall cash payment is guaranteed. 2. Operating cash flows to repay contribution rate = (operating cash flows - maintenance capital expenditure)/maturing debt principal and interest, reflect the enterprise to meet business cases to repay maturing debt levels. The index < 1, shows that the enterprise had to by adding new debt to repay maturing debt or other financing ways.#p#分页标题#e# 3. The net cash flow and net profit ratio = cash flows/net profit, the index to analyze the change of the enterprise net profit and net cash flow difference, in order to reflect the reality of the enterprise profitability. II enterprise early warning model design of non-financial index Customer, internal business process, learning and growing early warning index system of three modules design mainly from the financial perspective. In four dimensions of balanced scorecard, the financial dimension is the ultimate goal, customer dimension is the key, internal business process dimension is the foundation of learning and growth dimension is the core. [3] as a result, the realization of the rights of the enterprise financial goals, the key depends on customer, internal business process, learning and growing three aspects; In the same way, whether from the source control of enterprise financial crisis happened, the above three modules design of early warning index system can be crucial. 1. Customer early warning index system of module design Customer module of early warning index system mainly includes: market share, customer retention rate, customers gain rate, customer satisfaction, customer brings to the enterprise profit margin. Meaning (specific indicators such as table 1) which the customer brings to the enterprise profit margin is one of the most fundamental indicators, because only can brings to the enterprise profit margin customers caused by the market share is effective. [3] Table 1: customer early warning index system of module and its meaning With the righteousness 1. Market share reflects the business sector business ratio in the sales market, mainly affected by factors such as product quality and brand advantages. 2. Customer retention among From the absolute and relative sense, reflect the business department to retain or maintain with the ratio of the existing customer relationship. 3. Customers receive rate From the absolute and relative sense, evaluate business department to attract or to win new customers or business ratio. 4. Customer satisfaction according to the specific performance criteria (return rate, complaints, etc.) to evaluate the customer satisfaction of products or services 5. Customer brings to the enterprise profit margin in after deducting support a unique customer required spending, evaluating a customer or a department's net profit. 2. The internal business processes early warning index system of module design The pros and cons of internal business processes, related to the enterprise can continue to provide customer satisfaction of products or services, thus affect the realization of the enterprise financial goals. From the perspective of value chain, internal business process mainly includes the research and development, management and service stages. The specific early warning index system from time, quality and cost to design three angles. (table 2) Table 2: internal business processes and the early warning index system Internal business processes Index system research and development stage Business service phase Listed on point 1. Take the time to investigate the preparation time. 2. New product development cycle; 3. The balance after the development of time. 1. Production and sales cycle; 2. To reflect the time of the customer requirements. 1. The after-sales service response cycle Quality point of view 1. New products accounted for the ratio of sales; 2. Patent products of sales ratio; 3. The ability to launch new products before competitors. 1. The rejection rate 2. The rework rate 1. Success at a time Cost point of view based on homework cost method, to determine the consumption of each business process "homework" and "cost". 3. Learning and growing early-warning index system of module design Learning and growing the warning module index system mainly includes two aspects: employee creativity and employee satisfaction. Employee creativity PeiXunLv by employees and employee productivity two indicators. Employee PeiXunLv reflected the long-term development of the enterprise, the employee's labor productivity reflects the employee's knowledge skills and proficiency. Employee satisfaction can adopt the method of investigation. Investigation of the project including the recognition, the rewards and punishment mechanism is reasonable, the work can get full information, the functional departments of the support level, how to participate in decision making, to the enterprise the overall degree of satisfaction. If employee level not reached the standard of measure, the enterprise all the indicators are at risk, because the staff is enterprise's internal customers, is the first enterprise management activity participants, so the employee level index is also the source of the financial early warning system index. [4] III efficacy coefficient method in the enterprise application of early warning system Enterprise early warning model by the financial early warning, customer, internal business processes, early warning, learning and growth four modules. And each module design and selection of specific points index system should be fully considered enterprise industry and its production and operation characteristics of specific select several indicators, choose which indicators, must conform to the actual status of the enterprise itself, cannot machine-made, one size fits all. Enterprise early warning index system should also pay attention to integrity and harmony, not because of one or several indicators appear problem, it is concluded that enterprises are in a state of crisis; Can't because one or a few index to the usual rules, as enterprises in good condition. Therefore, this paper tries to introduce efficacy coefficient method, each of the selected evaluation index to several numerical rule, a value is satisfied, a is not permitted. Single efficacy coefficient, then calculate the indexes according to the importance of the various evaluation index, determine its weight, the multiplication is the comprehensive effect coefficient of the company. According to the size of the comprehensive efficacy coefficient can be early warning forecast, and adopt corresponding measures to avoid financial risk. [5] (1) determine the various indicators of individual efficacy coefficient: All kinds of index of single efficacy coefficient mainly includes the following four categories: 1. A very large variable, the larger the index value is good, such as return on total assets, accounts receivable turnover, etc.; 2. Very small variables, numerical yue xiaoyue good indicators, such as scrap, rework rate, average inventory occupation, to reflect the time of the customer requirements, etc.; 3. Stable variable, the index value at some point the best, such as the liquidity ratio, quick ratio, etc. 4. The interval variables, index value within a certain range, the best as the asset-liability ratio. The above four class variables respectively design single efficacy coefficient [6] : (1) very large variable individual efficacy coefficient 2 very small variable individual efficacy coefficient (3) stable variable individual efficacy coefficient (4) interval type variable individual efficacy coefficient The indexes have warning and without warning the determination of critical point is very critical, different country or region, different industries, different type and size of enterprise, the warning alarm limit line is also different. That is to say, all kinds of index satisfaction value, not the determination of allowable values must be combined with the actual situation of enterprise itself. Here can be drawn lessons from the systematic approach principle of mean and median. [1] (2) to determine each index's weight All kinds of index weight should be according to the importance of the indicators to determine. But even for different industries and enterprises, different stage of development should be different. Draw lessons from kaplan, professor of the experience of the four dimensions of balanced scorecard weights determined [3], and give full consideration to the financial early warning module plays an important part in the system as a whole, the index system of early warning module and internal weight as shown in table 3. In practice, enterprises can according to the specific circumstances to be revised. Table 3: enterprise index system of early warning module and internal weights Early warning module weight internal index system and weight Financial early warning 34% solvent 22% 10% current ratio, quick ratio, speed ratio of 10% to 10%, has won the interest ratio, asset-liability ratio 30%, 30% 10% security of cash payments Operation ability Occupation by an average of 18% 18% 10% inventory turnover, inventory, accounts receivable turnover of 10% 10%, sales and accounts receivable sensitive coefficient, current assets turnover rate 20%, 20% of the total asset turnover, finished goods inventory backlog rate 10% 10%, the proportion of non-performing assets profitability 24% 24% 15% operating profit margin, return on total assets, return on equity of 30%, cost, profit, economic value added 15% to 20%#p#分页标题#e# Development capacity 18% of its operating income growth of 20%, 10% growth rate of fixed assets, research and development investment growth rate of 30%, capital preservation increment rate of 40% Cash flow Ability to cash flow ratio is 40% 18%, operating cash flows of a sinking contribution rate of 20%, net cash flow and net profit ratio is 40% Customer alert 22% market share of 25%, customer retaining rate 10%, customer gain rate was 10%, Customer satisfaction, customer brings to the enterprise profit margin of 35% 20% Internal business processes early warning research and development process of 40% 22% 30% 30%, the management process and after-sales service process The warning to learn and grow 22% employee creativity, employee satisfaction with 50% and 50% (3) comprehensive efficacy coefficient calculation, formula is as follows: According to the size of numerical value of comprehensive effect coefficient, the industry can be divided into the corresponding alarm limit range, as shown in table 4. By observing the comprehensive efficacy coefficient of interval alert degree of the monitoring, forecasting. Table 4: warning degree analysis table [2] Alert degree of the comprehensive efficacy coefficient said Acuities were 60 giant p shows that the enterprise financial risk is extremely high, asset condition is very poor. 60-70 p shows that the enterprise financial risk is high, poor balance sheets. P 70-80, and the results show that the enterprise financial risk is higher, assets status. Light, 80-90 shows that the enterprise financial risk is low, asset condition is better. P 90 p shows that the enterprise financial risk is very low, assets in good condition. In short, the construction of the enterprise early warning model based on the balanced scorecard is only a theoretical exploration, has not been practical inspection, especially that the index selection of all kinds of different enterprises and the determination of weight, there's still a lot of research on space. References: [1] the establishment of the theory of financial early-warning index system [J]. Science and technology development and economic information. On September 15, 2005 (23). P. 120 [2] Robert s.k aplan and David p. Norton: The Balanced Scorecard, Harvard Business School press, 1996. [3] yu-ming hu. Senior management accounting (second edition) [M]. Xiamen university publishing house. In March 2005. 49, pp. 67-77 [4] van mans. Balanced scorecard perspective of the construction of the financial early-warning index system [J]. Journal of accounting communications. 11, 2005. 30 pages [5] WengXiaoYing Huang Jihong. Enterprise financial early warning system based on efficacy coefficient method research [J]. Journal of hangzhou university of electronic science and technology. 25 (4). 2005.08 p. 82 [6] Luo Xiaokang. Discuss efficacy coefficient method in the application of long-term financial early warning system [J]. Journal of accounting friend. 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