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中国农村改革的成就和未来面临的挑战
纵观历史，中国一直经历着动荡的时代和经济改革的变化。最突出的是1978年邓小平提出的经济改革。在这篇文章中，我们将围绕中国从最贫穷的国家开始改革以来的成就和不足进行论述，我国10亿总人口中大概有60％的人口生活在贫困线以下，并且每天收入低于1美元。这时候两个重要的变化发生了， 从农村到城市社会，从计划经济到市场为基础的经济的改革。虽然毫无疑问经济改革提高了中国的经济发展水平，如果这个成就是持续性的，我们还必须考虑到改革的成本问题。
关于1978年改革
改革的第一时期，1978年至1984年
1978年的改革，共产党在十一届三中全会决定开始一个新的经济改革，其重点是为了中国的经济发展，而不是为了政治问题。
Rural Reform Of China Achievements And Future Challenges
Throughout its history, China has been through tumultuous times and changes in economic reforms. The most prominent one is the 1978 economic reform under Deng Xiao Ping. In this essay, we will focus on the achievements and shortcomings of this reform, which transformed China from one of the poorest countries in the world, with 60 percent of the 1 billion of population living below poverty and earning less than $1 a day to the market economy it is today [1] . Two essential changes took place – from a rural to an urban society, and from a command economy to that of a market-based economy. Although the economic reforms have undisputedly improved China, we also have to take into account the costs of the reforms, those left behind by the reforms and if this achievement is sustainable.
About the 1978 Reforms
First Phase of Reform, 1978 to 1984
The 1978 reforms started by the third Plenum of Communist Party in China decided to embark on a new economic reform, whose focus was on economic development for China instead of political issues. There were many changes involved, such as in ideology, production and change in the collective farming communes but it was a gradual change. One of the most important change was the introduction of the Household Responsibility System(HRS). This system was introduced four times 1957, 1959–1961, 1964, and after 1978 respectively. The first three times it was enforced in poor regions like the provinces of Anhui and Sichuan, where it was meant to be an attempt to salvage the agricultural disasters in these places [2] . It was only after 1978, this system was implemented much more extensively, and spread throughout the country.
Prior to this system, farmers operated under a commune system. Agricultural production was organized by the production team, and the farmers were simply assigned to various labour units and then received different wages according to the units they were assigned to. This was done through the ‘Differentiated Workload System’, whereby farmers were grouped based on various factors such as age, sex, labour potential. Completed workdays are then recorded and they are paid accordingly. Besides, every member of the commune could not escape even if they wanted to. It was compulsory, even if the people in the communes did not want to farm or could not farm well. They were ultimately organized into communes of 4,000 to 5,000 households. [3]
Under the Household Responsibility system, also known as the 包产到户 (Bao Chan Dao Hu), the land that were formerly owned by the communes were leased out to individual households. In return, these households have to give a certain amount or quota of their agricultural production back to the production team. If they had produced in excess, they are free to keep those for themselves. [4]
During this period, the Towns and Village Enterprises (TVEs) also began to emerge. TVEs are formed when there is dynamic economic growth in a village to the point such that the entire village gathers to form a business together. These TVEs are allowed to sell their products at the market price, and thus could retain the profits, if any. They have been a colossal force behind the Chinese development all the way to the present times. In 1978, 1.5 million TVEs employed 28.2 million workers, whereas by 1996, 23.4 million TVEs employed 135.1 million workers. [5]
Second Phase of Reform, 1984 to 1992
During the second phase, China began adopting an ‘Open Door Policy’. Most noticeable is the existent of the dual-track economy that results. With the announcement of the Provisional Regulations on Expanding the Autonomy of Enterprises in May 1984, enterprises are now allowed to sell their products at a price different from the state plan, all the way up to 20% higher than the state price.
Farmers now receive a fixed acquisition price for the volume of agricultural products they have to give to the state. By producing beyond this limit, they are free to sell the remainder at market prices. The contract period for the lease of private plots has been extended from 5 to 15 years for annual crops and then in 1994, it was further extended to 30 years. [6]
Special Economic Zones (SEZ) began to spring up during the second phase as well as part of China’s ‘opening up’ to the rest of the world. By 1988, Hainan islands were the fifth and largest SEZ with a population of 6 million and an area of 33,920 km2. SEZs are essentially trade zones where the Chinese government opts to keep tariffs minimal so as to encourage foreign direct investment (FDI) and also promote trade. Science and technology was bolstered and encouraged to thrive. Furthermore, relatively flexible management at these zones aim to promote a export-oriented economy. Other successful SEZs include Shenzhen (2020 square kilometers) and Zhuhai (1687.8 square kilometers).
As price controls were lifted in this period, it brought about high inflation as well. Inflation was 17.8% in 1989, 3 percent 1991 and 27% in 1994. The price of many foods increased 60%. [7] In 1985, credit was expanding rapidly and prices were liberalized at the same time. With money supply increasing at a rate of 23.2% but prices rising at a rate of 7.4% from 1985 to 1987, further liberalization actions accelerated inflation to 17.8% 1989. The government then reduced its price liberalization, investment and tightened monetary controls, inflation was finally curbed to 1.4% in 1990. By 1991, the economy had recovered from the shock of inflation and GDP soared to 8% while investment grew by 18.8%. By 1993, growth rates had hit 13.4%. [8]
The control of foreign exchanges was gradually being relaxed. The Chinese yuan was devalued from 1.7 yuan to one US dollar in 1980 to 8.6 yuan in 1994, and the exchange rate was made equal to the market rate, making the Chinese yuan convertible for trade transactions. From 1995 to now, the exchange rate has remained approximately stable at 8.3 yuan to a dollar. [9]
The other component for open door policy is the encouragement of foreign investment. Foreign direct investment(FDI) increased from just 1.8 billion US dollars in 1984 to 41.7 billion in 1996, mainly from Hong Kong. FDI actually makes up for over 60% of China’s exports. This is extremely cardinal as it helps the transfer of technology, managerial skill and modern business practice to China as well as provides competition to state enterprises, making them more efficient and aiding further development.
At the same time, SOEs reforms began. Decentralization policies were used to make SOEs more viable. Firms were allowed to produce more than the plan quota like the farmers, and sell their excess production to make profits. SOEs were given more freedom in managerial decisions like the level of production, marketing and investment strategies and distribution of profits. This greatly increased productivity and efficiency like agricultural production. Firms were allowed to get involved with international businesses, and built joint-ventures with foreign companies, especially those in the coastal cities later on in the reforms. This was also known as the Contract Responsibility System. Under this system, a manager of a firm can sign a contract with a state agency. Although the manager had the right to decide on the operation of the firm in general, the firm is to be an asset of the state, hence the name State Owned Enterprises. [10]
In 1988, the government had another economic reform known as the Ten Year Reform Strategy. One objective was to encourage urban residents to buy their own houses, and to formulate housing finance arrangement and to restructure rents in the public sector. Central and local legislation and regulations on privatization of urban housing have been issued since then. Many houses were built by developers and designers from various countries and many public-sector institutions and enterprises have produced plans to privatize their housing stock through sales to existing tenants or employees. In 1979, private construction and sale by developers became legalized, and there was a shift towards the renting and selling of public housing. These resulted in an increase in the proportion of private housing in the total housing stock and also revived the development of private renting markets. [11]
Third Phase of Reform, 1993 to present
China’s financial reform from 1990s onwards was marked by the emergence of Shanghai as a financial centre. Shanghai, highly industrialized, became the link to the international market and financial hubs. Trade and entrepreneurship thrived during this time. By 1936, there were 28 major foreign banks that had set up branches in Shanghai and merchants used all the way up to 11 currencies for transactions, some of which were printed by local banks. Both the foreign and Chinese merchants started a new system called the “commission indent system,” which is an early form of trade credit which let enterprises and institutions to operate even with minimal financial resources. Also, the stock exchange in Shanghai actually became the largest in Asia during 1920s to 1930s. [12]#p#分页标题#e#
Back in the 1980s, the financial reforms took place outside the ‘Big Four’ banks that were state-owned, mainly of the financial intermediaries. From the 1990s, there was deregulation of the banking sector due to a large amount of commercial banks that were state or local government-owned springing up. Also, FDI increased sharply during this time. There was also a reform in the insurance industry, starting off with the entry of 4 foreign insurance branches setting up in Shanghai in 1992. By 1997, there were already 9 foreign banks that were granted access to the China market in Pudong, Shanghai. Inter-bank lending rate flourished, and bond markets began to rise in 1997. In order to curb the increase in money transactions, the central bank (PBOC) had used its reserves and interest rates as a means to manage the liquidity of the dynamic banking sector, like setting upper and lower bounds on deposits and loans so that commercial banks can choose their rates according to preference within the bounds. Moreover, the interbank lending rates were also converted towards a uniform system in 1996. [13]
The most significant event for China’s financial system in the 1990s was the growth of China’s stock market. Two domestic stock exchanges, the Shanghai Stock Exchange
(SHSE) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE), were established in 1990, and have experienced remarkable growth since then. However, the legal framework and institutions that support the stock market causes much lag. China’s first bankruptcy law was passed in 1986 for SOEs, but the formal Company Law was only effective in 1999. This Company Law governs all corporations with limited liabilities, publicly listed and traded companies, and branches or divisions of foreign companies, as well as their organization structure, securities issuance and trading, accounting, bankruptcy, mergers and acquisitions.
The Success & Reasons
The reforms has met much success in agricultural production, reforms in State-owned enterprises, the financial sector, tax system, FDI and macroeconomic policies and many other aspects. Since 1978, China had an average growth rate of over 9.4%, and exports growing at over 13%. Its modernization program has achieved an amazing feat. Despite the 1997?1998 Asian financial crisis, China still maintained its growth and consolidated its financial stability at the same time. [14]
The gradual transformation that China used rather than shock therapy like Russia has many advantages. Firstly, it allowed people to get use to the new system and reduces social instability. Ideology and way of life cannot be instantly transformed when people have already gotten used to a certain lifestyle. Especially for such a huge country, if China had adopted shock therapy, it would not work and if it does, it is simply a bubble.
Next, the existence of the dual-track approach and price reforms allowed prices of products to be gradually adjusted towards market prices and the state purchase price increased by 22.1%. The price adjustment policy is an essential reason for the large increase in agricultural production. At the same time, the annulment of the communes and the introduction of the HRS brought about higher increase in productivity and were widely accepted by most.
The main for its success is the incentive that the HRS has brought about to agricultural production. When farmers could keep the excess of their production to reap the fruits of their hardwork, there is much higher incentive to work and produce more so more leftovers can be consumed or sold. This raises efficiency levels by a great amount. The failure of the old system brought about famines, which is another push factor.
Piloting by a few villages was also a key point to success. When the new system showed promising potential and was first tested out by a few villages, it made others accept it more readily. Soon, the success of the HRS was spread to many other provinces and with its success in increasing output by 3 times, many were quick to accept it. 74% of the rural households chose the HRS. [15]
The opening up of china has brought about much FDI. Higher amount of foreign capital and technology results in greater economic growth, and also boosts the development of non-state enterprises, especially joint ventures and share-holding corporations. Thus, the industrial output value of the non-state sectors as a proportion of total industrial output value increased from 22.4% in 1978 to 51.9% in 1992. [16] Foreign trade had a stupefying increase from a meager amount below 10 % of GDP in 1978 to over 35% in 1996. Trade deficits in the 1970s and the 1980’s became trade surpluses in the 1990s following the reforms. [17]
Albeit a slow and tedious process given the large size of the economy and its tradition of corruption, reforms in legal and educational systems has been somewhat successful. However, many aspects of a modern legal system which have already been put in place, like governing business conduct and bankruptcy laws and having judicial courts to enforce them but much disputes are still settled partly by political influence, personal relations and bribery, which is a tradition and this still makes it difficult to do business in China.
Also, educational system in China has been greatly improved. Topics like Modern economics and management education has been introduced into tertiary education and special training programs have been taught to officials especially those in charge of banking and financial affairs. However, we must take note that due to sheer size of the Chinese population, there are still many areas to be improved on. [18]
The Shortcomings, Future Challenges & How China dealt with them
Even though the rural reforms have undoubtedly brought about much success and urbanization as seen by the huge increases in GDP, there are still many setbacks and challenges to a sustainable economy, but China must bear these costs.
HRS meant that many farmers could only own small pieces of land, and led to unequal distribution of land as well. As farming should be on a large scale, this makes it less efficient and also unable to take advantage of economies of scale. China however, has manufactured much agriculture technology to be used on small-scale farms. At the same time, the HRS is only for 30 years, and people only own the land for 10 years. This has a drawback. When people know that they will not own the land forever and only for a certain period of time, they will abuse it during their time as they do not need to consider long term usage. This leads to very myopic strategies.
The presence of a dual market that had resulted from the new system where there is a difference in control and market price makes corruption even more viable. This, coupled with increasing unhappiness of people with the new system has brought about the Tian An Men incident in 1989 [19] where students, intellectuals and workers began a demonstration in Tian An Men Square in Beijing. The main reason was because these people wanted to end corruption. Even though the reform was successful in general, it brought about much increase in public perception that corruption has become rampant as well. As a good can be sold for a higher price in the market than in the state plan, there are many officials who tampered with the state plan resources and pocketed the profits. This was known as “guan dao”. Corruption had ranged from 8% of GDP in 1980 to 11% in 1988. The government has taken steps to reduce by pursuing an anti-corruption campaign targeted at both the public and private sector. The anti-corruption campaign has led to the exposure of many corrupt business deals and is expected to help deter potential corruption offenders. With the legal framework for curbing corruption being improved and the campaign, China has seen improvements in this area. [20]
Globalization has resulted in unequal income distribution between regions. The income disparity perhaps is largest between rural areas and developed cities, like the eastern and coastal regions. This is a huge problem as it will eventually lead to social unrest since the poor will be unhappy with such disparities and will seek ways to ‘correct’ it. With the instability of the HRS, there is further uncertainty in terms of village community transition. At the same time, the poor in the rural areas all move towards the big cities and coastal areas (urban regions) and this results in disorganization of the rural community. [21] The elites leave for better job opportunities and those left behind in the rural areas are usually the vulnerable and unskilled. This in turn makes the income disparity even larger. As a result, the rural areas become less developed in terms of infrastructure, education, technology and many other aspects.
Another side effect of the dual economy is that of surplus labour in the rural areas. It is estimated that the surplus labor from rural area in China could be 120 million. The surplus labour who are mainly farmers living in the rural places have to be handled, otherwise it could lead to further social problems.
Besides, the pollution that resulted is large. The rapid development also drains china’s resources like land and water. In the midst of urbanization and clearing land for space, there is also the problem of loss of agro-biodiversity. There is a huge discussion for environmental and energy sustainability in China. However, China has been researching on new technologies to efficiently produce greener energy for sustainability and has emerged since 2007 as the world’s leading builder of more efficient, less polluting coal power plants, mastering the technology and driving down the cost. [22] Not only so, China is embarking on a large investment plan for solar energy, in Gansu where China is expected announce a package of hundreds of billions of incentives from the government's 4trillion yuan of stimulus fund. Gansu has recently accepted bids to build a far bigger solar PV plant that has been approved at Dunhuang. With a 10 megawatts capacity, it aims to be one of the biggest in the world. This is China’s strategy for long-term energy. [23]#p#分页标题#e#
Also, one other critique is that that many SOEs were inefficient especially on the management levels, where corruption is strife. The share of SOEs in deficit is about 43% in 1998. [24] In the mid 1990s, SOEs reforms had actually resulted in major problems. Firstly, the corruption of firm managers and state officials were rampant as they had rights over the operations of the firms. Many managers pocketed profits, making them rich and bankrupting the firm. State officials also request funds from the firms, for their own private motives and agendas. Another problem is the draining of state assets. As managers are on contracts, they tend to be myopic and try to make as much profit as possible, neglecting the future of the firm. These problems led to firms being in debt to banks. As banks are under the control of the government, they would have to loan the firms so the firms can continue operations even though they are unable to return even the interest of their loans. Lastly, firms became in debt with other firms as well, also known as the “Triangle Debts”. [25] Another problem is that of SOEs are involved in investments with fixed assets, but with very low interest rates and causes sinking of large amounts of capital. A low sales-to-production ratio also results in overwhelming inventories in stockroom. This result in the state government having to intervene by loaning them money through the banks again. [26]
Another big problem is that of the housing reform failure. Housing policy and housing market regulation has resulted in high housing price and most serious corruption in this field. China's house prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities had went up to 9.5% in January 2010 from 2009, the fastest growth in 19 months. Although there are much variations in internal design, construction materials, external layouts, and improved neighbourhood and communal facilities and a much wider choice of housing and much better quality now available, but the housing bubbles has been a great problem. For example in Hainan islands, housing prices tripled in a month. In the long run, it will eventually lead to social instability. Housing becomes a tool to distribute wealth, as the rich can afford to buy houses and sell them to make more money while the poor have even trouble finding a roof above their heads. However, the government aims to solve this by investing 63.2 billion yuan ($9.25 billion) on low-income housing in 2010, an increase of 8.1 billion yuan, or 14.7 percent over last year. [27]
One last problem I will touch on is that of medical care provision. There is high concentration of medical resources in large hospitals only, and grasswood services are extremely inadequate. Besides, medical costs increase too quickly. From 1978 to 1997 the medical expenditure for staff increased from RMB 2,700 million to RMB 77,370 million. For some hospitals, the drug income is more than a half of their gross income, and smaller hospitals it can be 70-80%. The high speed of medical cost increase brings about a heavy pressure and burden for employers and workers. Moreover, public medical institutions have bad management and operation systems. The staff lack ownership spirit with no awareness to provide quality service in a sector as important as healthcare. This result in low efficiency and medical and nursing staff are not sufficiently qualified. Lastly, the operation of drug manufacturing and distributing enterprises has poor structures. In China, there are 6000 drug manufacturing enterprises, 16000 wholesale and 120000 retail ones. There is a difference in the products of all these enterprises which leads to disorder and non-uniform medication. The presence of so many firms also causes a bubble from price setting and high sales commissioning in drug promotion, directly leading to high drug costs. Incidents of counterfeit and low quality drugs are not rare. Thus, strengthening of drug monitoring and legislation is highly important now. [28]
For this prevailing problem, China has also taken steps through Strengthening Health Sector Training in Chamdo Prefecture-TAR China. The project is co-financed by DGCS and ASIA, by a grant of 774,685 Euros. The project aims to improve the quality of medical help in Chamdo by developing the technical ability of the medical staff and setting up of the Health Training Centre of Chamdo. Another step taken is provision of basic Health Intervention and support to the Derge County Hospital in Kanting, Sichuan. It is sponsored by the same organizations for 1,301,000 Euros. This other project hopes to improve the sanitary conditions of the population and make healthcare more accessible by building 2 village clinics and increasing the supply of basic medical equipment. [29]
Conclusion
It can be seen that although China has achieved an unmistakable success in its reforms in terms of economical growth, there are many setbacks to it in terms of social and environmental problems. We cannot deny the success – it has transformed china from a poor and destitute state to the rising dragon it is today. If not for the reforms, perhaps the social welfare might be even worse than it is now. Globalization comes with a price, and China is the epitome of it. All China can focus on now is simply on better technology to remedy the damages to its society and environment that has incurred while urbanizing in order to maintain a sustained global power. Whether its success can be sustained depends on the policies it is undertaking now to solve the problems that I have mentioned earlier, and curb the worries that have plagued the nation for decades.
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