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导读：这是一篇经济学专业的termpaper范文，讨论了凯恩斯主义宏观经济学。凯恩斯主义经济学从政策取向看，逐渐走向了对宏观经济进行微调，其背后是对市场机制的崇信。凯恩斯主义接受了自然率假设，实质上假定经济一般处于充分就业状态，经济政策主要是微调，在实践中更多是运用货币政策来调节，宏观管理是一种短期总量管理，而且是以调节总需求为主的管理，主要是保持高度就业与价格的稳定，宏观政策均是短期政策，根据经济周期的需要进行相机决策，这在市场经济体制高度发达西方国家总体合适的。 The emergence of Keynesianism is the product of the Great Depression, from the phenomenon of persistent high unemployment and the substantial decline in production, Keynes from the lack of effective demand to explain the emergence of the phenomenon, breaking the classical macro-economy in the supply of automatic demand to create the laws of the Hanseatic. Keynes was soon modeled by Hicks, now the IS-LM model in macroeconomics, the most important innovation in Keynesian theory lies in the explanation of involuntary unemployment, which explains that involuntary unemployment is the direction of an anti-classical tradition, but a very direct problem is that if involuntary unemployment occurs, The labour market will be affected, if wages are flexible, wages will fall, so the total price level will also fall, and the overall price level will cause LM right to move, so the total output will increase, involuntary unemployment will be eliminated. 凯恩斯主义的出现是大萧条的产物，从持续高失业现象和生产大幅度下降，凯恩斯从缺乏有效需求来解释现象的出现，打破了经济的宏观经济供给自动要求创造汉萨同盟的法律。凯恩斯很快就被希克斯建模，现在是宏观经济学中的IS-LM模型，凯恩斯主义理论中最重要的创新在于对非自愿失业的解释，这解释了非自愿失业是反古典传统的方向，但非常直接问题是，如果发生非自愿失业，劳动力市场将受到影响，如果工资灵活，工资会下降，那么总价格水平也会下降，而整体价格水平会导致LM的权利移动，所以总产出将会增加，非自愿失业将被消除。 Obviously, the wage rigidity hypothesis can explain involuntary unemployment, which is also present in classical economics, although Keynes admits it, "but Keynes went farther than that, and he thought the nominal wage elasticity was not enough to bring the economy back to full employment". In particular, this is illustrated by the "liquidity trap" and the "interest rate elasticity of investment", because if the "liquidity trap" is present, the right shift of LM does not result in an increase in output, and the adjustment effect does not arise if the investment is inflexible on interest rates. From here, we can see that the early development of Keynesian theory seems to be very limited, because the liquidity trap is only a hypothesis, in practice, it is difficult to observe the liquidity trap, even if there is only the Great Depression exists, investment in the low interest rate elasticity is generally not realistic. 20th century 50, in the 60's, economists such as Samuelson and Tobin made a new classical synthesis of Keynesian theory, and if besides considering "Keynes effect", the theory of Keynes can only become a special case of classical economics, and involuntary unemployment must rely on the assumption of wage rigidity, while assuming the existence of wage rigidity, You can deduce a total supply line that is tilted upward. This total supply line intersects with the total demand line, the equilibrium point decides the equilibrium price and the total output, namely the Ad-as model, the macroscopic policy essence is compensates the salary rigidity the flaw as well as overcomes the market regulation slow, 1958, Phillips published about the British 1861-1957 years wage behavior research result, The Phillips curve, which was soon accepted by Keynesianism, became the standard interpretation of Keynesianism for a long time. In the the 1970s, Keynesian absorption of the concept of monetary doctrine, one is to introduce the assumption of adaptive expectations, the Phillips curve is improved to the additional expected Phillips curve, and the second is the introduction of natural unemployment, that is, if the workers in each period have a inflation rate of expectations, When the actual rate of inflation equals the expectations of workers, the level of employment is at the level of natural unemployment. When the demand shocks lead to higher output and higher inflation, the overall supply line can be moved by the adaptive expectation mechanism of introducing price. Even if there is no national macro intervention, if the time is long enough, the adjustment of prices and wages can make the economy to full employment, but the macro-policy is still effective, because the adjustment process is longer, so the main role of macro-policy is to make up for the slow pace of market regulation. In this way, Keynes, by combining with the monetary doctrine, is closer to the conclusion of classical macroeconomics, and can be expressed as the following dynamic Ad-as model: Keynesianism in the following aspects into a further development of Keynesian: one is to further improve the analysis of rigidity, neo-classical comprehensive more emphasis on nominal wage rigidity, keynesianism analysis of rigidity not only analysis of wage rigidity also analysis of price rigidity, not only analysis of nominal rigidity, but also the analysis of real rigidity, and explain the reason for rigidity. Some models combine nominal rigidity with real rigidity, which shows that the existence of real rigidity strengthens the effect of nominal rigidity, such as Bauer and Romer, the introduction of the real rigidity of the menu cost analysis, can get greater nominal rigidity. The second is to attach importance to Microcosmic Foundation: The main flaw of traditional Keynesian theory is lack of microcosmic foundation, which is not well combined with the most seeking benefit maximization in economic analysis, so it has been attacked by rational expectation school and neoclassical macroeconomics since the 1970s Since the beginning of the the late 1970s, Keynesianism from the basic assumption of microeconomics to establish the micro-Foundation for Keynesian economics, and the macroscopic analysis is more and more based on the most important pursuit of the micro-subject. Rational expectation hypothesis was once considered as one of the main characteristics of neoclassical macroeconomics, but through the efforts of Keynesian economists, we can set up the Keynesian macroscopic model under the assumption of rational expectation, even if we make rational expectation hypothesis, the macro policy is still effective, and the representative model such as Fisher's wage staggered adjustment model. The explanation of Keynesian price and wage rigidity has great limitations. Keynes was acutely aware that the Great Depression could not be explained by traditional classical economics, put forward the theory of demand deficiency, and explained the lack of demand by diminishing marginal consumption tendency, diminishing capital marginal efficiency and psychological flow preference, and Keynes thought that its explanation on involuntary unemployment could not depend on wage rigidity, It should be said that this idea is very creative, but it does use in the reality is difficult to observe the phenomenon of "liquidity trap", "investment of low interest rate elasticity" to explain, this has actually brought about the development of Keynesian theory hidden trouble. Because of the high value of price mechanism in interpreting macroeconomics, the development of Keynesian development is basically in the direction of neo-classical, so it is necessary to rely more on the "rigidity" hypothesis in explaining involuntary unemployment. Keynesian economics, from the perspective of policy, has gradually moved towards fine-tuning the macro-economy, behind which is the thrall to the market mechanism. From the previous analysis, it can be seen that Keynesian acceptance of the natural rate hypothesis, essentially assuming that the economy is generally in full employment, economic policy is mainly fine-tuning, in practice, the use of monetary policy to regulate, macro management is a short-term total management, but also to regulate the overall demand-oriented management, Mainly to maintain a high level of employment and price stability, macro-policy is a short-term policy, mainly according to the needs of the economic cycle of the camera decision-making, which in the market economy system highly developed Western countries generally appropriate, from the practice, the post-war period of the 1930s no "Great Depression", indicating that the overall macroeconomic stability, Such Keynesian fine-tuning is appropriate. Keynesian macroeconomics does not pay attention to the influence of economic structural factors on macro-economy. In general, Keynesian economics has a tendency to pay no attention to structure, because economic structure is considered as a problem of market regulation. For example, the income distribution structure with greater macroeconomic impact is rarely included in the mainstream macro-economic perspective, which does not mean that the bourgeois government does not attach importance to the issue of income distribution, and generally believes that the government's regulation of income distribution is a fair issue and one of the government's important responsibilities, In fact, the postwar capitalist government increased the intensity of the adjustment of income distribution, so that the influence of income distribution on macro-economic operation did not show, which can be reflected from the relatively small Gini coefficient in developed countries. Another example is the serious imbalance between investment and consumption in macroeconomics, which is not involved in Keynesian economics. In a word, the analytic paradigm of Keynesian macroeconomics distinguishes between long term and short-term problems, and divides short and long term relationships. In the present Keynesian model, the short-term model solves the problem of economic fluctuation and solves the problem of economic growth in the long run. This kind of research paradigm is reasonable under the condition that there is no system contradiction and structural contradiction in the developed countries, but the economic system with the problem of system and knot has to consider these factors both in the short-term sense and the long-term policy.#p#分页标题#e# In particular, the following several aspects determine that Keynesian macroeconomics can not be applied well to our macroeconomic: Keynesian first is to explain the phenomenon of unemployment, and China's labor market is very different. In view of the development of Keynesian macroeconomics, although inflation, economic growth and unemployment are all important phenomena of Keynesian macroeconomics, the primary solution of Keynesian macroeconomics is the problem of high unemployment in the economic system, especially the early Keynesian, which mainly explains the problem of high unemployment, And China's unemployment rate as an important macroeconomic observation index, has obvious limitations, because our country's labor force employment is mainly agriculture, and there are a large number of floating population, when the urban demand for labor increased, they entered the town for full-time or part-time work, but in the town can not find a job, They returned to the countryside for production; Meanwhile, the proportion of employment in agriculture in China's labor force is still higher than 40%, so if the demand for agricultural labor is increased, the labor force transfer is faster, so the change of employment structure of labor force is far more significant than the simple unemployment rate. On the other hand, there is no perfect unemployment statistic system in our country at present, there is a big difference between the registered unemployment rate and the unemployment rate in Western countries. Therefore, one of the most important observational indicators in deciding what macro policy to implement is not available in our country, and the macro policy of expanding or tightening depends mainly on price, which makes our observation possible to have a certain one-sidedness. Can be seen from the data of table 1, even in the 1998, 1999 deflation period, China's urban registration rate is very low, and in the high economic growth of 2004, 2005, the unemployment rate showed an upward trend, which is contradictory with the general macro-theory, The key reason is that, on the one hand, the unemployment rate in our country can not well explain the main problems of macro-economy, on the other hand, unemployment statistics is not in line with international, in this sense, the applicability of Keynesian in our country is greatly reduced. Keynesian economics focuses on the interpretation of all kinds of rigidity and analyzes its macroeconomic consequences, without revealing the main contradiction of China's macro-economy. At present, macro-management is based on the rigid analysis, here, we are not denying the existence of price and wage rigidity in our country, China is the market economy system country, from this point of view price and wage rigidity have influence on our macro economy, but not the key factor. Many people think that China's macro-control is based on Keynesian theory, even that the positive fiscal policy since 1998 is the biggest practice of Keynesian in our country. Some scholars in our country look at the macro economy, like in the brain to strengthen the economic cycle of the model, in the realization of macro policy, like the direction of change, a temporary expansion, temporary tightening, a steady, in fact, this is affected by the macro-control of the western countries, the author believes that China's macro-control can not be separated from long-term policy and short-term Fundamentally, China's macro-economy is affected by structural and institutional factors, especially the widening of income distribution gap has a profound impact on China's macro-economic operation, expanding domestic demand is a basic policy of China's macro policies, 2005 Central Eleven-Five plan proposed "to further expand domestic demand, adjust the relationship between investment and consumption , to enhance the consumption of the economic growth of the pulling effect "is the combination of China's actual very scientific strategic decision, which shows that although the short-term significance of China's macroeconomic camera decision-making is very important, but the basic macroeconomic adjustment direction is to expand domestic demand, expand domestic demand in China has a certain medium and long-term, This requires that the macroeconomic adjustment can not be one-sided according to the economic situation to adjust. Many institutional environments in the Keynesian model do not exist in our country. For example, real wage rigidity in explaining the phenomenon of unemployment is very important, China's macro-economic existence of real wage rigidity? There are some representative models in the model of real wage rigidity, which are related to the system environment that trade unions play an important role in wage negotiation, China is a typical country of dual phenomenon of urban and rural, there is no phenomenon that the trade unions decide wages in Western countries. The labor supply of our country is shown as the unlimited elasticity of labor supply under the fixed wage level, and the wage of peasant laborer is almost unchanged for 20 years. Another example is in the Fisher wage staggered adjustment model, the assumption that a wage signature usually has a relatively long period of time, in this period wages staggered adjustment, this is not in general accord with the reality of our country. In short, many of the institutional environment in the Keynesian model does not exist in our country, which determines the limitation of the theory to our country. |
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