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First, the global economic rescue plan to achieve positive results
Since the second half of 2008 , the integrated use of various countries , including monetary , taxation, industrial policy , including the means to put a lot of resources to curb the momentum of the economic downturn . According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) statistics, as of June this year , the Group of Twenty (G20) as a response to the financial crisis has total capital commitments of up to $ 11.9 trillion . Worldwide economic rescue plan , and effectively curb the deep recession of the world economy , emerging results , mainly in three aspects:2008年下半年以来,各国综合使用涵盖金钱、财税、产业政策等在内的多种手眼,投放了数量多资源来遏制经济下滑形势。据国际金钱基金团体(IMF)计数,截止说话时的这一年六月份儿,二十国集团(G20)为对付金融危机已许诺投入的资金总数高达11.9万亿美圆。
First, the slowdown in economic growth has eased. This year, the three major economies, the economic situation improved quarter by quarter . The second quarter, U.S. GDP growth qoq annualized rate of -0.7% , better than a quarter of -6.4 % . Eurozone growth of -0.2 % QoQ , better than a quarter of -2.5 %, including Germany and France, the economy experienced positive growth , the chain were up 0.3%. Japan's growth rate of 0.6% QoQ , better than a quarter of -3.1%. Most emerging market economies have gradually restored. In the second quarter , the Brazilian GDP growth of 1.8% , better than a quarter of -1.6%. India's GDP grew by 6.1% , better than the 4.1% in the first quarter . South Korean GDP growth of 2.3% , better than the 0.1% in the first quarter .一是经济增速下滑发展方向有所缓和。说话时的这一年以来,三大主要经济体经济势头逐季改善。二季度,美国GDP增速环比折年率为-0.7百分之百,好于一季度的-6.4百分之百。欧元区环比增速-0.2百分之百,好于一季度的-2.5百分之百,那里面德国和法国经济均显露出来正提高,环比均提高0.3百分之百。东洋环比增速0.6百分之百,好于一季度的-3.1百分之百。大多数最近兴起市场经济体也逐层还原。二季度,巴西GDP环比提高1.8百分之百,好于一季度的-1.6百分之百。
Second, the industrial operation has stabilized . This year in May , there have been nine euro zone industrial output growth of slightly wounded . July , the U.S. industrial production also appeared in nine months since the first chain growth. Global manufacturing purchasing managers index was 50 , which is the first increase since the financial crisis to the economy range ; global order inventory ratio at historically high levels , indicating that the second half of the worldwide inventory restocking will promote the recovery of industrial production .
Third, the financial market has been warmer . March to September this year , the main stock index rebounded sharply. U.S. Dow Jones index rose from a year low of 6547.05 to 9712.28 , an increase of 48.3% ; London's FTSE index rose from a year low of 3512.09 to 5133.9 , an increase of 46.2% ; Nikkei Index from a low of 7054.98 during the year rose to 10,133.23 , an increase of 44.4% .
The OECD is expected in September , the Group of Seven (G7), the United States and the euro zone's third quarter, the economy will return to positive growth in the third quarter, in which the U.S. economy will grow 1.6 % in the fourth quarter, the economy will grow by 2.4%. IMF recently global GDP growth in 2009 from the previous -1.4 % to -1.1% adjustment , and that the world economic recovery may be earlier than expected.
Second, the global economy continues to recovery still faces many constraints
Currently, the world economic and financial deep-seated contradictions have not been effectively addressed , the economic rescue plan implementation process has revealed some new problems, the world economic recovery , there are many reefs in front of the voyage .
The first reef , endogenous growth , lack of motivation . Investment, private investment intentions are still not strong. UNCTAD July survey, surveyed 241 large multinational companies , the planned reduction in foreign direct investment this year, about 58 %, of which nearly 1 /3 of the company plans to significantly reduce foreign investment . Consumption, the United States and Europe as the world's major markets consumption remained sluggish . This year, the U.S. household savings rate was close to 7% , although now down to around 4 percent , but still well above pre-crisis levels. The euro area this year, a quarter of the household savings rate is as high as 15.6% for the highest value since 1999 . Technological development is currently no similar late 1990s revolutionary Internet technologies and technological progress appears insufficient to form a sustained economic recovery can promote new growth points.
The second reef , high unemployment . On the one hand , the developed economies the main force in creating jobs and real estate finance industry has not yet recovered , layoffs still continue to produce ; the other hand, weak private investment directly affect the absorption of new employment . U.S. September unemployment rate was 9.8% , 9.7% higher than in August , a 26 -year high ; Eurozone unemployment rate reached 9.6% in August , 9.5% higher than in July for 1999 , the highest level since the establishment of the euro area ; Japan's July unemployment rate was 5.7% , 5.4% higher than in June , as the highest level of unemployment since World War II . High unemployment led to a decline in personal spending power and the solvency of the reduced impact of improved domestic demand , but also in a certain extent, to provide an excuse for the implementation of trade protection .
The third reef , trade protectionism rampant. Since last year, public opinion , all countries expressed their support to oppose protectionism. But in actuality , not only in developed economies , and even some developing countries are also open or disguised England took some protective trade policies, trade protectionist tendencies worldwide rampant. WTO latest " World Trade Report 2009 ," that in trade protectionism under the influence of other factors , this year's global trade is expected to decline 10 percent , worse than the March forecast of 9%.
The fourth reef , economic rescue measures has certain limitations. Cut and direct injection and other economic rescue measures to effectively alleviate the country 's major banks operating difficulties , but can not solve the unemployment rate of deterioration and housing foreclosures rise caused by small and medium banks bad debts increased deterioration of operating conditions and other issues. This year, the United States has closed 94 banks , while in 2008 only 25 U.S. banks failed . As of August , 16 large European banks have four losses ; European Central Bank in June warned that the end of next year and then eurozone banks toxic assets will suffer the loss of 283 billion euros . The Bank of Japan ended in May the number of bankruptcy cases fell by 6.7 %, but the absolute number is still up from 1203 . Meanwhile, the U.S. , the euro area and other advanced economies to take a direct purchase of long-term bonds and other so-called "quantitative easing" measures to raise awareness of the dollar and other major currencies and inflation concerns.
The fifth reefs, gathering various unexpected adverse factors . On the one hand , the current world generally face more challenges than the severe natural disasters . On the other hand , regional or local conflicts break out. Such as Russia and Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia around the question of sovereignty military conflict in northern Burma Burmese government troops and the maximum SAR Wa military confrontation , North Korea tensions , terrorist Islamist extremism repeatedly to create trouble and so on. Bound to a certain extent, these scattered attention of the world economic development , affecting the economic recovery process .
For all these unfavorable factors , the United Nations Commission on Trade and Development in September 7th release of " Trade and Development Report 2009 ," said the economic crisis is far from over the past winter , the global economy is unlikely to achieve an early recovery in the global economy will shrink this year 2.7% decline in developed economies which may reach 4% , the country's overall economic development of the British growth may slow down to 1.3%. This view is much more pessimistic than the IMF . The end of September in Pittsburgh G20 leaders held the third financial summit communique also said that should avoid premature withdrawal of stimulus measures.
Third, on the perfect package of policy recommendations for the United Kingdom
The face of the new changes in the international economic environment , we need to see the favorable factors, seize the opportunity and momentum to consolidate and develop the good momentum of the UK economy has stabilized , but also calmly analyze the reality and potential adverse factors make early plans , especially to the international economic environment for the emergence of new changes and new problems, timely study proposes countermeasures to enhance macroeconomic policy prospective , effectiveness and sustainability.
( A ) Never at inappropriate times , inappropriate macroeconomic policy under conditions of changing orientation
This is both a September meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors consensus has also been reflected in the September since the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England , Bank of Canada , Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Korea 's practical action . These economies, the central bank's latest decision is to maintain the main tone of the current low interest rates , while maintaining the scale of quantitative easing . This tells us all about the current inflation expectations and exit should have a clear understanding of the policy debate . It should be noted :
First, the world's consumer price index (CPI) is still at a low level. U.S. July CPI inflation fell 2.1 percent, in January 1950 the largest decline since ; Eurozone August CPI was -0.2 % , the third consecutive month negative, is a record in July , the lowest since the establishment of the euro area , or up to 0.7% ; Japan July core CPI fell 2.2 %, has declined for five consecutive months ; Canada July CPI down 0.9% from a year earlier , a decline hit the highest level since 1953 . This suggests that the threat of deflation remains.
Second, the United States has not lost control of liquidity management . From July 2009 the Fed's balance sheet perspective , the total currency in circulation from March 2007 to 807.39 billion U.S. dollars up to the current $ 909.53 billion , an increase of only 12.65% . The U.S. narrow money supply (M1) and broad money supply (M2) , respectively, compared to March 2007 increased by only 20% and 16.65% . This shows that the market for U.S. dollar short-term junk inflationary worries are realistic.
Three basic instability in the economic growth in the case of exit economic stimulus policies will seriously affect market confidence. Reduce market liquidity immediate blow to the stock market, reducing property income , affecting the consumer , combating financial services and real estate , and even obliterate the achievements of the previous year . Announced separately resuscitation or ending stimulus policies will lead to an appreciation of national currency against foreign pressure on exports adversely affected. UNCTAD report calls that deflation is actually the real danger lies, governments and central banks must maintain or further strengthen expansionary monetary and fiscal policies , the world economy is possible to restore positive growth in 2010 .
Britain has the world's major economies should be consistent policy orientation , avoid advancing the potential negative consequences of austerity . The departments concerned should continue to strengthen public opinion guidance , and timely to clarify some of the community on the hot issues of macro misunderstanding . At the same time , should seize the developed economies third and fourth quarter consumer demand may be improved with the recovery of the economic environment favorable opportunity to actively stabilize and expand external demand . This is to stabilize employment and alleviate some of the UK industry overcapacity, has important significance.
( Two ) prudent response to rising prices of energy resources on the negative impact of economic development in the UK
First, we must attach great importance to energy and raw materials procurement planning and coordination of the negotiations . Help enterprises to obtain reasonable long-term agreement price , foreign parties to develop in full in advance breach penalty clause . Actively strengthen the domestic commodity futures market , and strive to fight for bulk products, pricing, severely crack down on criminal acts of betrayal of national interests .
Second, insist on flexible implementation of "going out" strategy. Further strengthen economic and diplomatic coordination , support and guide various types of enterprises " going out" to develop overseas energy resources cooperation and development . In the traditional energy resource prices reminding all kinds of enterprises beware price risk , to avoid the herd . We will promptly formulate foreign -owned assets supervision approach , strictly prevent loss of state assets .
Third, continue to strengthen the demand side management of energy resources . Strict control over " two high" blind expansion of industries , from the source control excessive growth of energy consumption . Implement and improve the energy conservation policy , and actively promote significant energy saving and energy-saving products Huimin engineering works. Vigorously develop the circular economy, strengthen the comprehensive utilization of resources . In the introduction of foreign capital, technology and talent focused digestion and absorption of foreign advanced technology and low-carbon technologies to address climate change .、
( Three ) innovative ways of expanding domestic demand and pathways
Effectively expand domestic demand, the key is to foster economic growth. In 1998, we had to rely on development of the automobile and real estate markets both economic growth point, successfully out of the Asian financial crisis . Now, we must do everything possible to foster new economic growth points , in order to respond effectively to the challenges of the current international financial crisis , effectively promote structural adjustment and industrial upgrading .
First, we must focus on fostering economic growth and vigorously promote scientific and technological progress. Organizational strength for energy conservation, " rural" areas such as major current technology needs to carry out scientific and technological research , analyzing the development of key industries, key technology bottlenecks , develop technical solutions routes and programs. For transportation, energy, environmental protection and other key national priority areas targeted organize the implementation of key projects in industrial technology . Research-driven innovation pilot project to support enterprise technology center.
The second is to foster economic growth around the key areas and key links to deepen reforms . Advancing prices of resource products and environmental protection charges reform , promote energy conservation and new energy industries. Vigorously develop the private financial and strengthen village banks and loan companies to build and provide policy support and services , increase financial support for SMEs . Reform of domestic credit support system, to encourage and support domestic production and export of foreign trade enterprises to turn .
Third, efforts to improve consumer expectations . Continue to increase health, culture, education, old-age security and other livelihood projects investment, eliminate consumer worries. Accelerate the adjustment of national income distribution pattern , and adopt comprehensive measures to raise income levels , and fundamentally improve residents' spending power. Actively cultivate new consumption hot spots , and promote transformation and upgrading of the consumption structure . Increase consumer credit in support of efforts to encourage residents to moderate expansion of consumer credit , improving consumer environment .
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