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尼日利亚和安哥拉的贸易业绩与政策
为了分析安哥拉的贸易绩效和政策，我们选择尼日利亚作为一个基准，因为尼日利亚的特点与安哥拉非常类似。他们的经济都是以石油为基础，并且他们都是石油输出组织(欧佩克) 和世界贸易组织 (WTO) 的成员。此外，这两个国家都经历过内战，对它们的发展产生了负面影响。直到2002年，安哥拉经历了27 年的内战；同样，在 1999 年前, 尼日利亚也遭受了由于32 年的军事独裁统治而造成的政治不稳定、 腐败、 基础设施不足和宏观经济管理不善的境遇（美国国务部，2010 年 ；美国国际开发署，2010a、 2010b）。
根据中央情报局 （CIA） 2010a的资料显示，安哥拉2009 年的人口大约为 1300 万，占地面积 125 万平方千米，坐落在非洲大西洋沿岸。2002 年，安哥拉结束了长达27年的内战并重建了国家。经历了四分之一个世纪的战争，造成了约150万人丧生，400 万人流离失所，社会经济的基础设施已经遭到大规模的破坏。
Trade Performance And Policies Of Nigeria And Angola Economics Essay
1. INTRODUCTION
In order to analyse Angola’s trade performance and policies, Nigeria will be chosen as a benchmark, because characteristics of Nigeria is very similar to Angola. Both of them have petroleum-based economy, and they are members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Moreover, both of them experienced civil wars that had negative impact on their development. Angola had 27-year civil war until 2002; likewise, before 1999, Nigeria had been through political instability, corruption, inadequate infrastructure, and poor macroeconomic management caused by 32-year military dictatorship (U.S. Department of State, 2010; USAID, 2010a, 2010b).
According to Central Intelligence Agency (CIA, 2010a), Angola covers an area of 1.25 million km2 on the Atlantic coast of Africa, with a population estimated at nearly 13 million in 2009. Angola is rebuilding its country after the end of a 27-year civil war in 2002. In the quarter century of fighting, up to 1.5 million lives might have been lost, 4 million people have been displaced, and the socio-economic infrastructure has been massively destructed.
Since the end of the civil war in 2002, Angola has made progress in stabilizing the macro-economy, consolidating peace, and beginning the reconstruction of the economic infrastructure. However, economic growth still largely rely on the performance of the oil and diamonds sectors; relatively little progress has been made in the rebuilding of agriculture and industry, and there is a large informal economy. Additionally, there is still a serious shortage of skills; many markets are still distorted by subsidies, price controls, and large-scale government or parastatal participation; and lots of the infrastructure is still destroyed or damaged, with landmines remaining a significant hazard (WTO, 2006).
2. MICROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT & TRADE PERFORMANCE
Angola's overall economic growth rates which measured by increase in estimated GDP have varied considerably after 2002, falling from 14.4 per cent in 2002 (the year the civil war ended) to 3.4 per cent in 2003, then accelerating to 11.2 per cent in 2004. In the past three years, the rates are 21.1 per cent in 2007, 13.2 per cent in 2008, and -0.6 per cent in 2009 (Figure 1). Almost all of these changes were due to variations in the value of oil output (CIA, 2010a). In 2008, 9.6 per cent, 65.8 per cent and 24.6 per cent of GDP were contributed respectively by agriculture, industry and services sector (Figure 2). Even though consumer inflation declined from 325 per cent in 2000 to below 13 per cent in 2008, the stabilization policy proved unsustainable and Angola abandoned its currency peg in 2009 (CIA, 2010a).
Source: CIA (2010a, 2010b).
Angola’s exports make up about 77.2 per cent of its GDP in 2008, and are heavily dependent on oil and diamonds (Europa, 2009a). These two products have amounted to an average of about 93 per cent and 6 per cent of total merchandize exports, respectively, according to the World Bank (2009) and Integrated Framework (2005), and items such as stones, sand, fish, etc account for the remaining 1 per cent. With limited refining capacity, almost all exported oil is crude oil. China, US and France are three main export partners of Angola, they accounted for, respectively, 32.9 per cent, 28.7 per cent and 6 per cent of Angola’s export in 2008 (CIA, 2010a).
Angola imports almost every kind of merchandise, including products that the country has a potential comparative advantage in producing. Its main imports partners are Portugal, China, US and Brazil who provide, respectively, 17.1 per cent, 15.2 per cent, 11 per cent and 10.2 per cent of Angola’s imports (CIA, 2010a). Merchandise imports accounted for approximately 22.6 per cent of GDP in 2008, thus trade account creates a large surplus averaging 55 per cent of GDP (Europa, 2009a). This is offset by payments for services related to investment in the oil industry and interest charges on large short-term external debt. The current account generates a deficit or surplus mainly depending on the price of oil (World Bank, 2009; Integrated Framework 2005).
On the other hand, comparing with Angola, Nigeria seems to have relatively steady real growth rate in GDP (Figure 1). After 1999, the rates for Nigeria rose from 0.94 per cent through 5.44 per cent, 4.60 per cent and 3.48 per cent, respectively in 2000, 2001 and 2002 to 10.24 per cent in 2003. In the past three year, the numbers were 6.4 per cent in 2007, 5.3 per cent in 2008 and 5 per cent in 2009 (CIA, 2010b; WTO, 2005). This relatively steady rate is mainly due to better GDP composition by sector. For Nigeria in 2009, agriculture sector contributed 33.4 per cent of GDP, and industry and services sector contributed 34.1 per cent and 32.5 per cent of GDP, respectively (CIA, 2010b). As show in the Figure 2, the average cross-sector performance resulted in the limited impact on GDP growth rate, which caused by floating price of oil price in the global market. Therefore, the method for Angola to reduce dependency on the booming sector and to make the country less vulnerable to external shocks is to promote diversification of exports. Nigeria’s exports accounted about 36.0 per cent of GDP in 2008, while imports made up 25.4 per cent (CIA, 2010b). The better trade performance is also owing to more diversified exports.
Source: CIA (2010a, 2010b)
3. TRADE POLICY
In Angola, protection of domestic production is foreseen during the phase of rebuilding the economy; it can help developing countries nurture domestic industry, but a protectionist policy is not considered by the authorities as valid in the medium-term.
The authorities note that this policy is designed as a response to the situation prevailing following the civil war, and to the transition from a largely State-controlled economy to a more open market economy. Angola has to overcome the effects not only of the civil war but also of consequent difficulties in attracting foreign investment, technology, and assistance; and inadequate financial and economic policies, especially for extending those industries other than the oil and diamond sectors.
3.1 Import tariffs
According to WTO (2010), Angola's trade regime has been greatly liberalised since May 1999, and is still in the process of reorganisation and modernisation. The customs tariff is Angola’s major trade policy instrument. All of Angola’s customs tariff is bound at ceiling ad valorem levels under GATT 1994 schedule. Applied tariffs remain greatly under the ceiling levels bound in the WTO. A revised operational Customs Tariff was introduced in February 2005, reducing the simple average most favoured nation (MFN) applied rate from 8.8 per cent to 7.4 per cent, by major sector, the average tariff on agricultural products is 10 per cent (a bound average of 52.6 per cent), and that on non-agriculture products 6.9 per cent (a bound average of 60.1 per cent). The maximum applied duty rate has been reduced to 30 per cent, with a six bands: of 2 per cent, 5 per cent, 10 per cent, 15 per cent, 20 per cent and 30 per cent. A maximum rate of 35 per cent was removed in 2005 (WTO, 2006).
The authorities' short-term goal is to encourage import substitution and development of local industry. Therefore, some duties have been imposed in 2005; more, many tariff concessions are applying for investors and industries, mitigating the effects of the tariff structure and increasing effective protection (WTO, 2006).
Nigeria has relatively higher tariff for the importation. Since 2003, its average applied MFN tariff has reduced from 29 per cent to about 12 per cent in 2008, with applied MFN tariff rates on agricultural and non-agricultural products averaging 15.2 per cent and 11.5 per cent, respectively. In general, tariff rates are widely dispersed, ranging from a maximum of 150 per cent to a minimum of 2.5 per cent; a total of 19 bands are applied (WTO, 2005).
The overall tariff structure shows mixed escalation, owing to the high tariffs on agricultural goods. However, a number of industries are protected through positive escalation. Similar to Angola, several industries also benefit from tariff exemptions and concessions on imports of inputs and raw materials, that conducted by authorities. Within the context of its subregional integration efforts, Nigeria has expressed its commitment to bring significant liberalization and simplification to Nigeria's tariff regime (WTO, 2005, 2006).#p#分页标题#e#
3.2 Import prohibitions, licensing & contingency measures
Both Angola and Nigeria claims no quotas, tariff quotas, or tariff preferences, and their import prohibitions and licensing under “special import regimes” are applying for some particular products to be in place for health, security and safety purpose. Nevertheless, Angola has no anti-dumping, safeguard, countervailing or competition legislation, while Nigeria has. It has not submitted any notifications on anti-dumping or countervailing duties until 2004; reference was made to the need to protect local industries from dumping and unfair competition within the framework of remedies provided for by the WTO and regional trade agreements. A bill on anti-dumping and countervailing measures is currently under preparation. Nigeria was reported to have been in the process of enacting legislation on safeguard measures. However, there are no formal domestic legislative procedures for safeguard actions as provided for by the WTO Agreement on Safeguards. In January 2002, Nigeria notified the WTO Committee on Safeguards that import prohibitions on wheat flour, sorghum, millet, and kaolin were in place for safeguard reasons (WTO, 2005). In this case, it is still a long way to go for Angola to improve its trade regime, so they can avoid the injuries cause by inappropriate trade acts, such as dumping, export or domestic subsidies which can cause distorted international prices.
3.3 Export taxes, charges and levies
As WTO (2006), Angola’s export taxes are levied on: raw/tanned hides and skins (20 per cent); and worked ivory, bone, etc (10 per cent). The authorities claim that these taxes are levied for purposes of environmental protection, particularly of flora and fauna, although Angola is not a signatory to the Convention on International Trade in Wild Species of Endangered Fauna and Flora (CITES).
In Nigeria, the export amendment decree of 1992 prescribes that all raw material or unprocessed commodities, whether mineral or agricultural, may be subject to the payment of an export levy as may be prescribed, from time to time, by order of the Export Promotion Council (NEPC). In this case, an administrative levy of US$5 per tonne is applied to exports of cocoa, and of US$3 per tonne to exports of other raw materials (WTO, 2005).
3.4 Export prohibitions, restrictions, and licensing
In Angola, there are a various export prohibitions and licensing procedures for specified goods under special export regimes, including the Kimberley process for diamond. Export duties of 10 per cent and 20 per cent are taxed on exports of unprocessed ivory, and hides and skins, respectively. It does not prohibit import or export of endangered species (WTO, 2006).
Under Nigeria's Export Prohibition Act, certain exports are banned for purposes of domestic food security, value-added considerations, and preservation of cultural heritage. Nigeria's food safety regulations require export licences for unprocessed food products; in certain cases, the Minister for Agriculture is empowered to prescribe grades and standards of quality for these products (WTO, 2005).
3.5 Export promotion
There are no export-processing zones (EPZs) in Angola, and it has no export subsidies as well as no official export promotion body (WTO, 2006).
In contrast, there is various incentive schemes available to exporters in Nigeria might reduce the anti-export bias resulting from the protection of domestic markets by high tariffs and import bans. They reflect the authorities' awareness of the inconsistency in the objective of promoting processed exports based on highly protected local raw materials. Export incentives can be a very effective measure for Angola to promote development and diversification of exports, together with the import substitution by domestic production.
The Export Expansion Grant Fund scheme (EEGF) offers cash inducement to eligible exporters who have exported a certain amount of processed products. The aim of the scheme is to stimulate domestic producers to expand the volume of exports, and diversify their export product and market coverage (Manufacturers Association Of Nigeria, 2005). The main support to exporters through banks is the Re-discounting and Re-financing Facility (RRF) scheme. It is designed to assist banks provide pre- and post-shipment finance in local currency for non-oil exports. The facility provides exporters access to the expanded export portfolio of banks at preferential rates.
Additionally, the Tax Relief on Interest Income Scheme provides for tax exemption on interest accruing to banks from loans for export activities. A drawback scheme allows for levies charged on raw materials used in the manufacture of products to be refunded upon the export of the final goods. The objective of this scheme is to encourage manufacturing for exports. The law enabling EPZs was enacted in 1992 and supports the establishment of industries and businesses within demarcated zones, principally for export purposes. EPZs are also being used to address the infrastructural and regulatory deficiencies inhibiting export-oriented companies in Nigeria (Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, 2005).
4. TRADE AGREEMENTS
4.1 Multilateral agreement
(i) World Trade Organisation
Angola became a Member of the WTO on 23 November 1996, qualifying as an original Member of the WTO, and accords MFN treatment to all its trading partners (WTO, 2006). It reiterates its commitment to the liberalisation of trade and the Multilateral Trading System, which is deemed to be beneficial for development, growth and wellbeing. It deems that the WTO could play an key role not only in improving the reputation of the trade liberalisation process by making it more organised, flexible, and diversified but also in carrying out a plan based on the rules of world trade.
Agriculture sector is essentially important for Angola's economic development. According to Integrated Framework (2005), in terms of the dependence of the economies of the developing countries on both exports of primary products and imports of food goods, as in the case of Angola, it is necessary to ensure the fulfilment of the commitments undertaken in favour of the developing countries (DCs) and least developed countries (LDCs) in order to facilitate duty-free market access without quotas for LDCs products and greater moderation and flexibility in the implementation of sanitary and phytosanitary agreements (SPS) and other agreements relating to technical barriers to trade (TBT).
For non-agricultural market access (NAMA), Angola is seeking greater freedom of manoeuvre to pursue its development objectives, in light of the need to create the right conditions for its diversification and the industrialisation of its economy (Integrated Framework, 2005).
The service sector is an important economic part in most of country, either developed countries (OEDCs) or LDCs. Angola is tending to expand its services sector, since it realised that service can effectively make a positive contribution to its economic. Therefore, Angola is in the current negotiations relating to the service sector (Integrated Framework, 2005).
(ii) Other multilateral agreements
As WTO (2006) stated that, since Angola is a member of the United Nations (UN), it joined the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), and other relevant UN agencies. It is also a member of the Community of Portuguese-Language Countries (CPLP), International Coffee Organisation, Common Fund for Commodities, and International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT).
Angola, as a LDC, benefits from those agreements in particular in UNCTAD: as a member, it is eligible for preferential conditions under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), which is, with the OEDCs, and the Global System of Trade Preferences (GSTP), among DCs (WTO, 2006).
4.2 Regional agreements
(i) Southern African Development Community (SADC)
Angola is a co-founder of the SADC that aims to create a common market among the member States by 2015, according to SADC (2010), it has accepted the SADC Trade Protocol, and is actively engaging in negotiations for an EPA both within SADC and in broader negotiations with the European Communities (EC). Also, Angola is actively participating other trade-related areas of SADC – like infrastructure; trade and investment; and agriculture, food security and natural resources. It has approved the SADC Memorandum of Understanding on Standardization, Quality Assurance, Accreditation and Metrology (SQAM). The SADC secretariat has assisted Angola to establish a schedule for implementing the provisions of the Trade Protocol.
(ii) African Union
Angola is a member of the African Union (AU) that is expected to be an economic and monetary union. Ongoing AU activities are including: increased sub-regional integration programmes, peace keeping, the establishment of an African standby force, and harmonisation of education policies (WTO, 2006).
(iii) Other regional agreements
Angola is a co-founder of the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS/CEEAC), but has not signed any regional trade agreements yet. However, it has had individual agreements with some members of the Community, such as Congo-Brazzaville, Gabon, etc (WTO, 2006).
4.3 Bilateral trade agreements
Angola has signed bilateral trade agreements with several other countries, particularly, those countries use the same language (e.g. Brazil, Mozambique, Portugal, etc.) or with which it has territorial (e.g. Namibia, Zambia, etc.) or political ties (e.g. Cuba). However, beside primary commodities such as fish, oil, timber, it has little to offer in exchange. A specific agreement signed between the European Community and Angola in 1987 has promoted the sustainable development of fisheries (WTO, 2006). It is important to notice that either regional or bilateral trade agreement might create trade diversions which make a country less efficient in terms of international trade.
5. TRADE POLICY DIRECTION
As noted above, Angola's international trade is inevitably very much influenced by two main factors. The first one, also the single most important one, is that Angola is a major oil exporter and these exports will inevitably dominate not only export performance but also the performance and stability of entire economy. Oil-induced macro-economic distortions are also the key factor conditioning the performance of non-oil exports that, though relatively less important in terms of percentage of value of trade, are very important in terms of poverty reduction. The second factor is that there are massive dislocation, death and destruction within the country after the decades-long civil war (Integrated Framework, 2005).
Looking forward, in Angola, the essential goal of economic policy is to accelerate growth and reduce poverty by restoring the diversity and dynamism the economy had before independence. This would require a well-planned and phased trade strategy that aims initially for import-substitution in sectors where Angola has proven comparative advantage and in sectors where Angola used to be a main producer before independence. Food security will be on the top of import-substitution agenda given Angola’s status as a low cost food producer is capable not only of efficient satisfaction of domestic needs but also as a competitive producer of food for the international market. It has to be noticed that Angola’s current need to engage in import substitution stems from the all non-economic reasons for its loss of domestic production capacity in the first place – the decades long civil war and its attendant destruction (Integrated Framework, 2005; WTO, 2006).
Looking forward, in Angola, the essential goal of economic policy is to accelerate growth and reduce poverty by restoring the diversity and dynamism the economy had before independence. This would require a well-planned and phased trade strategy that aims initially for import-substitution in sectors where Angola has proven comparative advantage and in sectors where Angola used to be a main producer before independence. Food security will be on the top of import-substitution agenda given Angola’s status as a low cost food producer capable not only of efficient satisfaction of domestic needs but also as a competitive producer of food for the international market. It has to be remembered that Angola’s current need to engage in import substitution stems from the all non-economic reasons for its loss of domestic production capacity in the first place – the decades long civil war and its attendant destruction (Integrated Framework, 2005).
In addition, the trade policy need to target at gradually restoring the capacity in non-oil exports once efficient import substitution takes hold. In Angola, the emphasis on eventual export-led growth is very important since with still large number of the population living under the poverty line (WTO, 2006). Angola’s domestic market is too small to sustain high growth in production and employment necessary to make a significant poverty reduction. Hence, export growth and diversification must be the focus for creating growth in the medium to longer-term in Angola.
Since Angola has massive natural resources, it has substantial potential to implement the strategy that initially emphasises on import substitution with the intention of eventually moving towards export-led growth within a diversified economy. Particularly, opportunities exist in agriculture (e.g. coffee, livestock, rice, cotton, etc.), fisheries, light manufacturing (e.g. wood products, leather products, etc.), and services (e.g. transit trade, tourism, etc.). This strategy could provide an effective poverty reduction program due to all potential import substitution and export-oriented activities, especially in the rural areas where about 75 per cent of the population live, are labour-intensive activities (WTO, 2006).
In order to effectively implement this strategy, significant improvements are required in trade policy. A comprehensive reform is also needed which might include eliminating overvaluation of the exchange rate, stabilisation of the macro economy, rehabilitation of infrastructure, strengthening of policies for specific sector, and the improvement in the private sector enabling environment to encourage private investment in import substitution and export oriented sectors and a more effective supply-side response to trade policies.
All policies with a major effect on trade, either direct or indirect, should be evaluated in the view of their ability to promote the broad based trade oriented and private sector-led growth that is needed.
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