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英国的房地产市场 介绍 自20世纪90年代中期，房价几乎翻了一番，这便造成了一个房主拥有万贯家财的局面。这些房主们努力攀上房地产这个阶梯，留下似乎不可能完成的目标。按揭贷款的收回使这些用户减负16年。 一年中一些新添的按揭贷款已降至20%，且根据经济学来看，押贷收取的平均利率比其前7年所收取的平均利率要低。在经济上供给与需求之间有一个法则：e=mc2。 在2008年早期，房价持续走低。这其中有许多原因，比如增值税增加，失业率上升，高利率等等。政府已尽最大努力去解决这些用户在付款方面的问题，银行将给予他们一个为期两年的窗口来拖欠归还，在未还清之前，这个窗口仍然存在。单单靠每月薪水，同时鉴于汽油价格，食品价格上升，对大多数人来说买一套远超150万的房子是不可能的，也是不可改变的。同样，那些众多搁置在一旁且有些时日的房子尽管依然在出售，但仅仅取决于市场的需求，什么样的人群有能力支付。 Housing market in UK
Introduction
Since the mid 1990s house prices have nearly trebled. This has left a situation where homeowners have seen tremendous gain in wealth. Where as those struggling to girt on the property ladder have been left with a seemingly impossible task. Mortgage repossessions lead for a 16 years light. The number of new mortgages has fallen by 20% in a year and nearly 6% the average interest charged on mortgage is lighter then it has been for nearly seven years according to economics, there is one law e=mc2 of finance on demand and supply.
Since early 2008 the house prices have constantly going down. There are many reasons for that such as vat increasing rise in unemployment higher interest rates etc. The government has also bent over backward to stop those now already in trouble with payments by leaving on the banks to give them a 2 years window to default in before taking any action this 2 years window is still in place as yet. The average wage alone tells you that there is not must changes of even buying a house for much over 150 k for most people leading has been tightened up so petrol prices food prices are set to rise . also had been for some time over pilled so house although always in demand are only worth what the market says they are and that means what people can afford to pay.
Housing Market (Last 3 years) 房地产市场（过去3年）
Average House Price
As we can see the graph , we can see that untiv the mid 2007s the average house price hasn't changes much but aften to Q3rd and Q4th of 2007we can see that has been a drastic change in the price of the house as we can see our slope has gone downward 15% by the of 2008. But with the start of 2009 we can see, the average change in the price percentage has increase and by the end of the 3rd quarter of 2009, here has been increase up to almost 5%.
Composing the graph of average price we can see that over the years of 2007, the average house of price stood near £180,000, but with the start of 2008 we can see where are a slight change in the price but the end of the years and the start of years 2009, the price has gone down to almost £ 150,000, but slowly with the midyear the price start to gain of around £160,000.
There are the key factors that determine house price in particular; it explains why house prices are so expensive in the UK. The main reasons for fall house prices are because of credit crunch it is difficulty of getting mortgage low affordability economics recession to buy when house price are going down.
Demand side factors需求负面因素
Interest rates:
Interest rates directly affectly affect on the housing market because interest rates are usually the biggest part of a home owner's monthly spending. As we know in the UK the majority of home owners have different mortgage that cost of mortgages rise that what deterring people to buy house. That way interest rates are a very important factor in the UK housing market if interest rates has change it has a big impact on cost of mortgages.
Demographic:
In last few years population of the UK boosting because of eastern Europe such as Egomania, Germany, France the number of households can rise faster than the population if the average family size decline and there are more single people living along. Another factor increasing number of households is demographic change such as
-rising divorce rates
- Children leaving home early
- An increase in net immigration from all over the world.
Economic Growth:
Economic growth and rising wages will definitely enable people to spend more on buying a house. Tradition ally, there was a mortgage ratio of their times your salary that means if you earn £10 k the building society would lead £30 k therefore rising wages enable house prices to rise. However in the past few decades the house price to incomes has increased showing that other factor are at work as well.
Other factors
Consumer Confidence
Confidence is vital for determining whether people want to take the risk of taking out a mortgage. In particular prospect towards the housing market are imperative; if people fear house prices could drop, people will defer buying.
Money Markets 货币市场
This is raised to importance in recent months as the credit crunch has made lending money harder. The top banks and building societies are pugnacious to raise funds for lending on the money markets. So, they have tightened their lending criteria dropping the number of 100% mortgages and rising their Standard changeable Interest rates.
1. Average Earnings / House prices & Interest Rates 平均收入，房价&利率
usually, average earnings and house prices have been taken mutually to produce an affordability relation, this relation has obviously in recent years shown itself to be flawed! Basically blemished. In that the ratio ignored in the past low interest rates as a function of earnings and house prices. A more perfect pointer would need to include interest rates, and so Market vision has constructed a new house price to earnings ratio which includes interest rates.
The indicator precisely shows why house prices have continued to rise, as they are nowhere near the affordability of the early 1990's, off course the index could be extended to include other variables, like the level of new build construction, growth in households, employment levels so on. Till now fine-tune the trend. But basically in a simple 3 variable chart the Market Oracle House price ratio is able to explain that house prices ARE still affordable and thus the primary reason why they carry on to boost.
The chart shows why 2001 was a great time to buy as world interest rates fall, whilst IN 2001 there were innumerable economists suggesting that UK house prices were overrated and costly! When infract they were at their most reasonable level in a generation, and sparked a surge in house price increase.
Currently house prices are at the higher end of the range, which does suggest slower house price growth in the force able future unless interest rates higher l.
An interest rate rise to say 5.25% would put the index at 28, which would take house prices further than the new range, however still this is far lower than the high of the early 1990's
2. UK Money Supply 英国货币供给
Through the UK money supply running at the rate of 13%, it's no doubt the housing market continues to challenge gravity and chug along the highs. This surplus supply of money is causing price rises; it's called house price inflation and efficiently devaluing the value. The world's final hedge in opposition to inflation is Gold, and in gold terms the price of Houses has really fallen over the last few years as inflation reappears onto the scene. In Jan 2005 the price of an average house was £150,000 the price of gold in genuine was £204. Therefore houses average was valued in 735 ounces of gold. Today with gold at £317 and average house prices at £170000, the average house is worth 536 ounces of gold, a fall of 28% !!! So far this fact has had no effect on the UK consumer.
3. The UK Economy 英国经济
Is a significant factor in the continuing uptrend in UK house prices, the strength of the UK economy which continues to deliver year on year economic growth and wealth, this is an important contributing factor to the growth in house prices as the money earned is invariably plowed back into the housing market.#p#分页标题#e#
4. Immigration 移民
As a consequence of recent EU expansion, strong economy and liberal employment laws. There has been a large influx of migrant Labour in excess of 600,000 from the Accession States, this has supported the continuing demand for properties in the buy to let market.
Home Let has reported a surge of optimism among UK lettings agents.
The tenant referencing and rent pledge firm believes agents are more sanguine about the future of the rental market than they were under a year back, in spite of the stable lack of financing for buy-to-let mortgages.
study by the company found that in December, 98% of agents were expectant the lettings market to keep on the same, produce or grow significantly in the year further on, with the amount up by 12% on January 2009.
The trend reflects conclusion from the Association of Residential Lettings Agents (ARLA): throughout the ending three months of 2009, 41% of ARLA members reported more tenants than properties, compared with just 24% in the prior quarter.
In addition, ARLA consider among landlords revealed that 54%judge Britons are currently being forced to rent before buy.
Home Let managing director, John Boyle, says: "require for rental properties will stay strong over the next few years as first-time buyers carry onto find it difficult to find mortgage finance."
He adds: "self-confidence in the buy-to-let market is also expected to be buoyed by figures out by LSL Property Services which showed gains of 7.6% in the confidential rental sector over the last 12 months, and a gradual boost in buy-to-let lending as the year progresses."
LSL also reported that the characteristic landlord achieved a return of £12,740 per property in 2009, comprising £4,831 in capital increase and £7,909 in rental income.
The figure compares with a beating of £23,000 last year, as beating house prices were equalize by rental income of £7,900.
Reasons Given as to Why the Housing Market would not Fall:
Immigration - There had been a large entry of over 800,000 migrants from the Accession states who contributed in the direction of the buy to let market fizz.
Lack of Home Building - End of 2006 there had not been a building explosion in the UK housing market in the form of usual porch and semi-detached properties. but this hid the tentative boom going on in the construction of the off the plan flats and apartments that proceeded to change many city centre developments that were because of be completed between 2007 and 2008, this would get online a huge supply of more priced properties that would need extremely high rentals to prove profitable as frenetic property speculators revoltingly over paid for the flats.
Strong UK Economy - The UK economy at the centre of the worlds credit fizz continued to smash mainland Europe, which looked on with desire from the less elastic and more regulated European countries of France and Germany, though as we find out during 2009, not participating in the credit bang did not help them as many of the European banks turn out to be belatedly suckered into buying U.S. subprime mortgage backed noxious securitized debt as one the last to throw themselves onto the debt derivatives pyramid. By now dark clouds had early forming over the UK housing market throughout the summer of 2007(UK Housing Market Heading for a Property Crash).
The summer months afterwards witnessed the smash into UK house prices come round pass as house prices look set to full-fill the real forecast for a 16% fall well in advance of the real time line with the risks that in spite of soaring increase data, the housing bear market threatened about to happen devaluation, which has now more and more become the mainstream story which was originally highlighted in the examination of March 2008.
The Government Starts to Panic -
House prices continued to drop into September 2008 as progressively more bankrupt banks started to topple over one after an additional as governments twisted with ever more panicking measures to prevent a fall down of the worldwide financial system. First came the ban on short selling of financial stocks, then nationalisation of Bradford and Bingley, followed by the panic interest rate cut of October 2008, and the extraordinary £500 billion bank assist package. As the financial markets continued to experience excessive instability by registering on a daily basis movements of as much as 10% that have not been seen since the days of the 1987 smash into, the Government efficiently took control of interest rates in all, However name away from the Bank of England which announced the panic interest rate decrease of 1.5% at the November MPC meeting that in fact brought home how rapidly the economy was falling off the border of the cliff and the succeeding emergency VAT cutting budget in an try to get consumers to spend right away which brings us up to the present.
Slow improvement in mortgage market
The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) predicts that, later than an very slow January, mortgage lending in the UK will lift up in 2010, albeit gradually.
The trade body reported a more muted start to the years than standard, however pointed out that this was mostly because of the end of last year's Stamp Duty Holiday attention people to do too quickly from side to side their property buy before December 31st. The CML says that after such a spike in action, it says, a lull was predictable. It believes that mortgage lending levels will stay miserable over the next couple of months, however start to get better later in the year.
CML spokesman Bernard Clarke says: "We are still in a market in which it is not as competitive as it was and that situation will only recover very slowly." Clarke also adds that the require of mortgage funding continues to intimidate the recovery and that additional process are essential to improve the supply of credit to mortgage lenders. One expert points out that doubt continues to pestilence the market, and the threatening election does not help the market. Timothy Lambert, head of consulting at property investment consultancy Ducalian, says: "With a change of government probable within 4 months, lenders are suspicious of fixed-rate mortgages as interest rates can only go single way and increase is starting to rise fast."
Lambert concludes that mortgage lending will get well in time, however only when assurance returns to lenders. But, Paragon Mortgages has carried out research representing that the majority of mortgage advisers think the lending landscape will increase this year, with 58% saying they expect an improve in the number of borrower enquiries they will receive in the first three months of the year.
IMPROVING THE UK HOUSING SYSTEM 发展英国房地产体系
A large number of comprehensive options for improvement of the UK housing system were discussed. It was not possible to give them the in-depth assessment that each one deserved. Therefore, they have been collected in this part as a basis for more discussion and suggestions for prospect changes in policy. The objectives for the housing system provide a framework that policy makers and decision taker can use to the question outlined. Would the suggestion raised help to achieve the objective that have been set out? In devising detailed implementations of ideas there is particular strength in considering the extent to which the objectives can be achieved through the use of incentives as these are often more publicly acceptable than measures of compulsion.
They are prepared in the following sections:
1. Finance of housing
2. Increasing supply finance and institutional change
3. Increasing supply land, training and structure
4. Existing housing stock
5. Enhanced tenure option and flexibility
6. Creating place/neighbourhoods
7. Research and the evidence base
The finance systems that make stronger housing systems have a major impact on the use of the UK's housing s stock. These systems consist of taxation, which can create incentives and disincentives to positive type of behaviour, mortgages that fund home purchases and safety nets to ensure the most susceptible in society can have enough money housing. Financial systems also condition of housing on an institutional level. These impacts addressed independently under the heading, "increasing supply finance and institutional change".
Increasing supply land, planning and construction
The current business model of the construction industry has led to circumstances where a small number of firms and other supplier are responsible for the supply of a significant proportion of new housing stock. The weaknesses of this situation have been emphasizing by the existing economic crisis where housing supply has fallen to the least since the Second World War. A more sustainable supply economy would feature a diverse mix of providers, with different providers building for different markets, based on different models, different financing structures and with different ownership options. How can we encourage a diversity of housing supply? beside less well-known types of organisations that might deliver housing, the possibility for more small builders to compete with the volume home builders would diversify supply and could have a positive on the optical character of housing. With pressures on finance, there is a need to look at the feasibility of projects on a case-by-case basis according to local condition. Lists of small pockets of delivery can add up to assist in meeting the large needs. Government will have a responsibility to play in heartening a range of various methods of housing provision to develop, part of which needs to be low cost housing. Reassuring the provision of low cost, good quality housing is one way of alleviating the damaging effect of house price instability. A variety of suppliers is also more likely to be able to meet the altering ecological and social needs.
Conclusion 总结
The recovery of the housing market is going to depend partly on how the credit markets adjust. Many lenders are now more willing to renegotiate loans for those facing foreclosure. However, the credit market can only do so much. We also need to restore faith in our financial system.
House prices will continue to be supported along the highs and maybe drift higher as long as the situation remains positive with regards all of the four above factors. Even a rise in interest rates to 5.25% is unlikely to effect the situation significantly. It would require an interest rate hike to above 6% before we are likely to witness a significant house price decline, as that would put the index far above the current range.
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