|
1. Explain what is a credit boom according to the authors and how do they define it in their research setup. (20 Marks)1。根据作者解释什么是信贷繁荣，以及他们如何在他们的研究机构中定义它。（20分）
作者认为，信贷繁荣是信贷快速增长的一个阶段，它造成了政策困境。更多的信贷意味着更多的融资渠道，以及对投资和经济增长的更多支持。但当扩张速度过快时，这种繁荣可能会通过宽松的贷款标准、过度杠杆和资产价格泡沫导致脆弱性。事实上，信贷繁荣与金融危机有关。历史上，只有少数繁荣在崩溃中结束，但其中一些崩溃是壮观的，有助于人们认为信贷繁荣充其量是危险的，充其量是灾难的前兆。信贷繁荣并不是一个明显的现象。但是，自20世纪80年代金融自由化和放松管制以来，在任何特定年份实行信贷繁荣的国家的做法都呈现上升趋势。
According to the author, the credit booms is episode of rapid credit growth, which poses a policy dilemma. More credit means increased access to finance and greater support for investment and economic growth . But when expansion is too fast, such booms may lead to vulnerabilities through looser lending standards, excessive leverage, and asset price bubbles. Indeed, credit booms have been associated with financial crises. Historically, only a minority of booms has ended in crashes, but some of these crashes have been spectacular, contributing to the notion that credit booms are at best dangerous and at worst a recipe for disaster. Credit booms are not arecent phenomenon. But thefraction of countriesexperiencing a credit boom in any given year has seen an upward trend since thefinancial liberalization and deregulation of the 1980s.
2. Explain how, according to the authors, credit booms are linked to根据作者的说法，解释信贷繁荣与
a. Economic performance (10 Marks)经济效益（10分）
b. Financial crises (10 Marks)金融危机（10分）
首先，通过财富效应和金融加速机制，实际经济活动和信贷总量波动密切相关。毫不奇怪，繁荣时期的经济活动明显高于非繁荣时期。繁荣时期的实际GDP增长率平均超过了非繁荣时期的粗略百分比。私人消费在繁荣时期增长更快。但私人投资明显回升，与非繁荣年份相比，平均增长率翻了一番以上。这与许多国家银行在为房地产和企业投资融资方面发挥的重要作用是一致的，但也至少部分地反映了资本流入以外国直接投资的形式所发挥的作用。在信贷繁荣时期，股票和房地产价格都会飙升，在繁荣结束时失去牵引力。与非繁荣年份相比，GDP组成部分的差异更为显著：股票价格的实际增长率几乎是实际增长率的四倍。在非繁荣时期，房价平均年增长率在2%左右，但在繁荣时期，房价急剧上升，达到10%的增长率。与资产价格繁荣同步可能会给金融和非金融部门造成资产负债表漏洞，并对更广泛的经济产生影响。
信贷繁荣也可能与宏观经济长期表现挂钩。毕竟，金融发展通常以信贷与国内生产总值的比率来衡量，用来检测信贷繁荣的相同变量对经济增长有积极的影响。First of all, real economic activity and aggregate credit fluctuations are closely linked through wealth effects and the financial accelerator mechanism. Not surprisingly, economic activity is significantly higher during booms compared to non-boom years. Real GDP growth during booms exceeds the rate observed in non-boom years by roughlypercentage points, on average. Private consumption expands faster during booms. But it is private investment that picks up markedly, with the average growth rate more than doubling compared to non-boom years. This is in line with the important role played by banks in financing real-estate and corporate investment in many countries, but it also reflects, at least in part, the role played by capital inflows in the form of foreign direct investment. Both stock and real estate prices surge during credit booms and lose traction at the end of a boom. The difference from non-boom years is more striking than in the case of GDP components: equity prices rise at almost quadruple the rate in real terms. House prices, on average, grow at an annual rate of around 2 percent in non-boom years but accelerate sharply during booms to a growth rate of 10 percent. This synchronization with asset price booms may create balance sheet vulnerabilities for the financial and nonfinancial sectors, with repercussions for the broader economy.
Credit booms can also be linked to macroeconomic performance over the long run. After all, financial development—typically measured by the credit-to-GDP ratio, the same variable used to detect credit booms—has a positive effect on growth.
At the macro level, there is evidence of a systematic relationship between credit booms and economic expansion, rising asset prices, leverage, foreign liabilities of the private sector, real exchange rate appreciation, widening external deficits, and managed exchange rates. At the micro level, there is a strong association between credit booms and firm-level measures of leverage, market value, and external financing, and bank-level indicators of banking fragility.
Secondly, booms are sometimes followed by financial crises that are typically associated with sharp drops in the credit-to-GDP ratio. However, in about40 percent of the episodes, thecredit-to-GDP ratio seems to shiftpermanently to a new, higher“equilibrium”level. In fact, there isa positive correlation betweenlong-term financial deepening and the cumulatedcredit growth that occurred duringboom episodes.Balancing the benefits described earlier is the notion that credit booms are dangerous because they lead to financial crises. This is not just an underserved bad reputation due to a small fraction of episodes that were particularly bad. Credit growth can be a powerful predictor offinancial crises. In our sampleThe recent global financial crisis has reinforced this notion. After all, the crisis had its rootsin a rapid increase of mortgage loans in the United States. And it was exactly the regions thathad experienced greater booms during the expansion that suffered greater increases in credit, about one in three booms is followed by a banking crisis within three years of its end.
3. Explain the main insights of the research paper (40 Marks)解释研究论文的主要见解（40分）
As far as I am concerned, the main insights of the research paper include three aspects. First, this paper’s structure is very precise and compact. The whole paper divided into five parts, and each part has coherent relation with other part. Secondly, the examples and tables in this paper are very abundant and vivid. The theme is about the finance, so it can be proved and expressed clearly through these tables and examples. Finally, an excellent thesis or paper must has cited and referenced large amount of bibliographies, which also refect the author’s paintaking cares.
4. Explain what kind of weaknesses there might exist in their research setup (20 Marks)解释他们的研究设置中可能存在什么样的弱点（20分）
Maybe because I am the Chinese, I always pay much attention to Chinese issues. In this paper, I rarely read the Chinese economic performance and financial crises about the credit booms. We all know that China is one of the most important countries in the globalization, and she is the emerging economies around world. China has made great contribution to the world economic development in past and present. 2008-year financial crisis has also influenced China’s economy a lot. So if this paper add more analysis of Chinese economy information about the theme, it will be more perfect.
|
 |
|||
| 网站地图 |
