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choice of exchange rate regimes 各国汇率制度的选择 根据国际货币基金组织的报告在1970年以前，大约百分之85的发展中国家有固定的汇率安排，但在1970年初布雷顿森林货币体系垮台之后确定了汇率制度，发展中国家的汇率大幅变动。本文着眼于探讨发展中国家在决定采取什么样的汇率政策可能是最适合的，可以包括传统的固定利率（单一货币汇率制或多货币汇率制），独立浮动，中间制度（ 可调节汇率制，爬行钉住汇率制：以规则为基础或自由裁量）。一个发展中国家汇率制度的特点是经常带来账户赤字，贸易竞争力，控制通货膨胀，有高就业和获得微观经济效率实现收入水品最大化。但传统的常识认为，这些目标之间有权衡取舍。 According to the IMF approximately 85 percent of developing countries had pegged exchange-rate arrangements before 1970 but after the collapse of Bretton woods fixed exchange rate system in the early 1970 there was a sharp alternation of exchange rate by developing countries. The essay looks at the options available for developing countries in deciding what exchange policy might be most suitable for developing country to adopt that could include conventional fixed rate (Single-currency peg or Multi-currency peg), Independent Float, Intermediate Regimes (Adjustable peg, Crawling peg: rule-based or discretionary). The character of a developing exchange rate regime is to bring about a sustainable current account deficit, trade competiveness's, keeping inflation in check, to have high employment and achieve microeconomic efficiency in resources to maximize income levels. But conventional wisdom states that there will trade-offs between these objectives Floating exchange rate is where the government do not have an exchange rate target. It allows the economy to pursue an independent monetary policy strategy; such as inflation targeting and the exchange rate finds its level in the market. The strength of this regime is that it facilitates real adjustment. Exchange rate movements provide a natural cushion against real shocks that may arise from adverse terms of trade development. There are two types of floating rates available for consideration they include an independent float and lightly managed float. The difference between the two exchange rates is that independent float its operated freely with no intervention from the monetary authority and the exchange rate will determine the supply and demand but in light managed exchange rate system their will be occiotional intervention direct and indirect from the monetary policy to moderate excessive fluctuation. But both exchange rate movements provide a natural cushion against real shocks that may arise from adverse terms of trade development. In recent year's many developing countries have adopted market determine floating system. "They include Uganda in mid 1982, Uruguay in late 1982 that was followed by that was followed by Dominican Republic, Bolivia and Zambia in 1985". Milton Friedman's (1953) argument in favor of flexibility still holds much water: if prices move slowly, it is both faster and less costly to move the nominal exchange rate in response to a shock that requires an adjustment in the real exchange rate than to wait until excess demand in the goods and labor market pushes nominal prices down. There is also an argument against floating know as "fear of floating" that causes exchange rates to often too quickly in developing countries, these movements are unrelated to fundamentals, causing undesirable movements in real exchange rates. Inflation targeting under floating system is problematic given fiscal dominance, the frequency of supply shocks due to weak financial infrastructure that is appropriate for floating exchange rates in developing countries. Fox example Brazil faced problems in inflation targeting under floating exchange policy due to the volatility nature in exchange rate bought as effected by external shock and expectation's. Its currency in January 1999 deprecated from R$ 1.20 to R$ 2.06 at the end of February. Another example is of Indonesia, Korea, and Taiwan display considerable instability in the 1970s and 1980s. These fluctuating widely are caused by volatility of the nominal exchange rates, which in turn may be caused by the increased volatility of capital flows. As the diagram below shows Another policy available is fixed exchange rate policy, where central banks will protect its exchange rate; it is where they will values of currency within certain band limit with reference to other country or basket of currency, that is usually their leading trading partner. It is seen as an anchor against inflation that is important for a developing country that have tendency to hyper inflate. Furthermore if nominal shocks prevail in an economy fixed exchange rate regime can accommodate money demand or supply shocks while minimising output volatility in a country. That helps to bring a more stable environment for international trade and also benefits from investment due to absence of a currency risk premium. For example China operate operate under a fixed exchange rate regime has benefited as its foreign exchange reserves have increase to 514.54 billion due to currency being undervalued by 40% and has not being allowed apprentice by the monetary authority due to controls by Central Bank making their good cheaper to US dollar. The drawback from a fixed exchange rate is that central bank will lose last resort lending power. Central bank lending activities will only be effective only with the backing of a credible institutional setting. Therefore, even if adopting a regime that allows the central bank to print money, a non-credible banking rescue operation will likely trigger inflationary expectations and increase the probability of observing a devaluing currency, due to exhaustion of reserves and collapse of the fixed exchange rate system implying a big political cost for the policy makers as evident by Bretton wood fixed exchange rate system collapse in 1970.For example Given the disadvantages of both permanently fixed and independently floating exchange rates, it is not surprising that many developing countries have tried various intermediate regimes in an effort to combine the advantages of the two systems. It is where country can either use adjustable peg system or crawling peg regime that both defend the peg but the only difference is that under adjustable peg monetary policy can alter the exchange rate and crawling peg reserves the right to change the peg in steps which are small but discretionary in size and timing. The pegs allow country to maintain stability and competiveness on the bases peg is credible, help to keep the interest rate low and allows high inflation countries to reduce inflation by moderating inflationary a problem faced by many developing countries. It regimes might faces problems such as currency crisis if the country is open to international capital markets and it seen to encourages foreign debt. For example during the mid 1960s to deal with structural feature of high inflation The passive crawling peg regime was implemented by Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Colombia. Due to this regime countries managed to relax the balance of payment constraint and experienced an acceleration of economic growth. Negative aspect associated with crawling pegs is behaviour of inflation as evident in Argentina that saw inflation around 30% per year and Colombia who's inflation around 5-10% before crawling pegs to 25% after crawling pegs was implemented by the late 1970s and early 1980s. Conclusion总结 An important consensus on the choice of exchange rate regimes is that no single exchange rate regime is best for all countries or at all times (Frankel 1999, Mussa and others 2000). The choice would vary depending on the specific country circumstances of the time period in question (the size and openness of the country to trade and financial flows, structure of its production and exports, stage of its financial development, its inflationary history, and the nature and source of shocks it faces), and the country's policy objectives which would involve trade offs. The ultimate choice would be determined by the relative weights given to these factors. |
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