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导读:这是一篇经济学专业的essay范文，讨论了日本震后的经济复苏。日本东北部海域发生地震后，日经指数大幅下跌，全球主要市场都出现了大幅波动。灾后日本需要在建筑和公共建设工程方面投入大量资金，这在一定程度上也将成为日本未来三个季度的经济增长动力。虽然地震对日本经济产生了极大的破坏，但如果能有效凝聚日本国民力量，消除政治异见，反而将为经济注入新动力。所以，日本震后经济的复苏指日可待。 Essay题目：Japan's economic recovery after the earthquake The recent Japanese earthquake not only shocked the world with its magnitude, but also shocked the world with its economic and social impact. Speculation is rife about the state of Japan's economy after the earthquake. This paper mainly explores the impact of the earthquake in Japan on the global economy and analyzes the road of economic recovery after the earthquake. On March 11, 2011, an earthquake measuring 9.0 on the Richter scale struck off the northeast coast of Japan, triggering a massive tsunami that devastated industrial areas in the northeast. After the earthquake, the nikkei index, Japan glue fell sharply, and major markets around the world saw big fluctuations. The extent of the economic damage from the earthquake, the impact on the recovery of the world's third-largest economy, whether the global economy will be affected and whether international commodity price trends will reverse are raising concerns. One of the biggest concerns is whether Japan's economy can recover from the disaster. The Japanese earthquake occurred in relatively underdeveloped areas, so the impact on the Japanese economy is relatively limited. Still, the region, which accounts for about 8 per cent of Japan's gross domestic product, is also home to a number of important industrial plants, including cars, nuclear power, petrochemicals and semiconductors. Coastal counties such as aomori, iwate, miyagi, fukushima and cicheng account for 10.8 percent of Japan's GDP, and the actual impact is expected to be less than 11 percent. Japan's auto industry is by far the worst hit, with all of Japan's big three automakers -- Toyota, Honda and nissan -- closing 22 plants. Japan is a big consumer electronics industry, including big companies such as SONY, sharp, panasonic business institutions throughout Japan, there are part of the consumer electronics companies to determine the losses, including SONY, said the company has closed in northeastern Japan six factories, now the factory workers were evacuated, and are the earthquake caused widespread power outages and production facilities to evaluate the effect of destruction. Panasonic also has a joint venture to suspend production. Sharp, panasonic, mitsubishi and sanyo all closed some major factories. Most consumer electronics firms, however, said the damage was not serious at the moment, with factories in Osaka, home to giants such as panasonic and sharp, far from the epicentre. In 2009, domestic and foreign tourists spent about $270 billion in Japan, creating 4.06 million jobs in travel agencies and hotels, and raising government taxes by about $49 billion. The growth of tourism in Japan can be seen. Unfortunately, the earthquake coincided with the cherry blossom season, and the earthquake and tsunami had a huge impact on tourism. However, traditional tourist destinations such as Tokyo, Osaka and Hokkaido are some distance away from this disaster area. But if it does not recover soon, it will hit the tourist economy hard all year round. If the impact continues, there could be a sharp drop in the prices of hotels, flights and attractions in Japan in the future, further deepening the loss of its tourism industry. There is no doubt that Japan will focus on reconstruction after the disaster, which will involve tens of billions of dollars in private investment and government funding, but it will also provide a degree of stimulus that could spur and boost economic recovery. Reconstruction involves industries such as construction and energy, which were among the hardest hit by the earthquake. The bank of Japan also held a regular policy-making meeting soon, which is likely to further ease monetary policy to help rebuild after the disaster and boost economic recovery. Naturally, there are two schools of thought about Japan's economic recovery after the earthquake. Pessimists are not optimistic about the strength of Japan's economic recovery. They mainly believe that the tohoku region and kanto region, where the earthquake struck, are the industrial heartland of Japan. After the earthquake, many factories in the quake zone and the area affected by the earthquake suffered heavy losses and were forced to shut down, and it is expected to take some time to resume operations. That could hit Japan's nascent recovery hard in the short term. The east coast of Japan has a large number of key industries and pillar industries, such as steel industry, petrochemical industry, manufacturing industry and nuclear power industry. The massive earthquake and tsunami of November 11th affected industries along the coast. By midday on March 12, dozens of factories belonging to at least 21 large Japanese companies were shut down in areas affected by the quake, according to incomplete Japanese media statistics. The scale of production in some of these factories is significant. The chiba refinery at COSMO, the company's largest, has a capacity of 220,000 barrels a day. As many factories suffered substantial damage from the earthquake and tsunami, and some even suffered casualties, it will take a long time to reopen. Tokyo electric power co's fukushima nuclear power plant has been hit by the quake, and the utility of thermal and hydroelectric power has been partially damaged. Tokyo electric power company announced Thursday that the power supply will be unable to meet demand due to severe damage to power plants caused by the earthquake. Power shortages are likely to become more pronounced after the 13th, with tepco systematically imposing rolling blackouts in some areas. Moreover, Japan's economy has stagnated since the fall of 2010, and the earthquake forced many companies to stop production, which will lead to a decline in business efficiency, affect workers' income and reduce their willingness to consume. This would further exacerbate deflation and would be extremely detrimental to Japan's current weak economic recovery. "The shutdown of many parts factories will have a significant negative impact on production in the auto industry, semiconductor industry and other industries," said yasushi hijin, chief research officer at nomura. Damage to road and port facilities directly affects living and production activities such as transportation, logistics and material distribution. The loss of production capacity and the decline of export capacity will inevitably affect the operating profits of enterprises and further affect the willingness of enterprises to expand investment, increase employees and raise salaries. "Japan's economic growth in the second quarter of 2011 will be severely affected by the magnitude 9.0 earthquake," he said. The quake, the largest in Japan's history, could have an economic impact similar to that of the hanshin earthquake in 1995. But the earthquake affected the country's extensive road network, power stations and other infrastructure. In the short term, therefore, the impact of the quake will be much greater than that of the hanshin earthquake. From the perspective of consumers, the deterioration of employment and income environment will lead to less willingness to consume, which will further worsen the sales and profits of enterprises in the future. The economy almost ground to a halt in the hanshin earthquake valley of 1995. And the nuclear radiation has again greatly hampered Japan's agricultural and electronics exports. For pessimists, even with Japan's ambitious post-disaster reconstruction efforts, growth in the first six months of the year is unlikely to be as rapid as had been predicted. So reconstruction will not boost Japan's economic recovery. On the contrary, the other camp's predictions of future Japanese economic recovery are far more optimistic. They are optimistic that the impact of the disaster will be less severe than previously thought, and that rebuilding infrastructure could create jobs and spur economic growth. The damage from the hanshin earthquake was much smaller than in January 1995. Takatoshi ikeda, a senior economist at nomura, a Japanese consultancy, says Japan's economy recovered in six months after the hanshin earthquake. Lawrence summers, the White House economic adviser, said reconstruction would provide jobs and the disaster could spur Japan's economy. David hensley, an economist at jpmorgan chase, says the San Francisco earthquake of 1989 and the Los Angeles earthquake of 1994 helped boost California's economy. Here, the author takes the hanshin earthquake of 1995 as an example. The hanshin earthquake severely affected Japan's manufacturing and transportation industries, and caused losses to Japan of $200 billion, or 2.5% of Japan's GDP at that time. Despite such heavy losses, Japan's economy actually performed better than expected and recovered quickly. Driven by strong reconstruction demand, real GDP grew 1.2 per cent in the first quarter from the previous quarter, rebounding from a 1.5 per cent fall in the previous quarter, and accelerated to 5.1 per cent from the previous quarter. What's more, the Japanese government changed its monetary policy substantially after the disaster to reduce global liquidity, the yen returned to the country, and tens of billions of dollars of government and private investment focused on the reconstruction after the disaster, which strongly stimulated Japan's economic development. In this regard, the San Francisco earthquake of 1989, the Los Angeles earthquake of 1994 and the hanshin earthquake of 1995 are good reminders of the adverse effects of post-disaster reconstruction on economic recovery. In terms of damage alone, the damage from this disaster is clearly much worse than that from the hanshin earthquake. There are cars, there are ruts, bad things can turn into good things, rebuilding can provide jobs, or it will stimulate Japan's long sluggish economy.#p#分页标题#e# Overall, the post-earthquake reconstruction is both an opportunity and a challenge. Japan's economy may suffer in the short term, but in the long term, positive post-disaster reconstruction will provide new impetus for growth. Japan needs to invest heavily in construction and public works after the disaster, which will be part of the growth engine for the next three quarters. While the earthquake has caused great damage to the Japanese economy, it will inject new impetus into the economy if it can effectively consolidate Japanese national strength and eliminate political dissent under the common desire of "jointly resist the disaster and revitalize the Japanese economy". Therefore, Japan's economic recovery after the earthquake is just around the corner. We should also be ready to help them and be ready to meet the challenges ahead. |
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