内部和外部的平衡的财政政策分析

Internal and external balance内部和外部的平衡

Introduction介绍

So far we have considered the options open to government facing a persistent BOP problem verymuch in terms of a ‘laundry list’ approach. 到目前为止，我们已经考虑开放型的政府以一种“洗衣清单”的模式面临着持续的国际收支问题，包括内部平衡政策和外部平衡政策这样的财政策略问题。
In this lecture we look at these policies within a generalequilibrium framework developed by Meade (1951), where a government wishes simultaneously toachieve internal balance (IB) and external balance (EB). IB refers to domestic macroeconomicobjectives which we shall take for simplicity to mean full employment and zero price inflation. EB inthis context refers to BOP equilibrium, and in the absence of intentional capital mobility this comesdown to a current account balance在这种情况下，.EB是指国际收支的平衡和在资本人为操控流动的情况下，归结为当前的账户余额的行为。

The simultaneous achievement of IB and EB and the assignment problemIB和EB的同时实现和分配的问题

As in many areas of economics, the simultaneous achievement of IB and EB is likely to involve atrade-off between the two. Table 1 shows some possibilities. For example, in case A the economy issuffering from both recession and a deficit on the BOP. Hence, an expansionary policy is desired toincrease employment and achieve IB, but this will tend to make the BOP worse by increasing imports.Similarly in case C a contractory policy is appropriate to cure inflation, but this pushes the BOP out ofbalance by generating an even larger surplus. Only in cases B and D, therefore, will the policy for IBalso improve EB.

A further conclusion from Meade’s analysis is that for the achievement of both IB and EB it willusually be the case that two independent policies will be required, one for IB, and another for EB.This idea comes from a principle first stated by Tinbergen (1952) which says that if a number ofindependent policy targets are to be achieved with a number of effective policy instruments, thenumber of instruments will, in general, need to be at least as great as the number of targets. In otherwords, to achieve full employment and BOP equilibrium will probably require at least two policies. Itis possible for one instrument to move the economy in the direction of two goals, as in cases B and Din Table 1, but it is rare for only one policy fully to achieve both.http://www.ukassignment.org/cwgllw/

A diagram first developed by Salter (1959) and Swan (1960) demonstrates how these policies mightachieve simultaneous IB and EB (FIG 1). The vertical axis, R, represents an index of internationalcompetitiveness such that a rise in R equates to a devaluation of the currency, and a fall in R to arevaluation. If R is high it means that a given level of employment can be sustained with a low levelof domestic demand or absorption (A), since exports will be high relative to income. IB representscombinations of R and A that yield internal balance. Above the line there is inflation, and below thereis recession. EB represents combinations of R and A to achieve BOP equilibrium. Above the linethere is a BOP surplus, and below the line a deficit. Only at point E is there simultaneous IB and EB.We can the cases A-D from Table 1 within this figure, so that case A, for example, is depicted belowboth the IB and EB lines illustrating that the economy is experiencing both recession and BOP deficit.The policy combinations which could be used to move the economy towards E in FIG 1 aresummarised in Table 2. Note that we assume the exchange rate is fixed, but can be changed bydevaluation and revaluation, and that there are no international capital movements. Under theseconditions, to solve case A expenditure changing policies could be used to raise income andemployment and an expenditure switching policy (in the form of devaluation) to improve the tradebalance. In FIG 1 this is shown by following the arrows placed in the vicinity of A, i.e. raisingabsorption along the horizontal axis and simultaneously moving upwards towards E by reducing thedeficit through devaluation (increasing R). The policy mixtures for the other cases could similarly berepresented in FIG 1. Note that a move from point Z (internal balance with a deficit) would requireboth a successful devaluation and a policy of dis-absorption, otherwise the competitive advantagefrom devaluation would be eroded by inflation resulting from excess demand, and the economy wouldmove vertically up from Z rather than to E. This was the conclusion of the absorption approach in theprevious lecture.这是在前面的讲解中关于吸收法的结论。

So far we have shown how a mixture of expenditure changing and expenditure switching policiescould, in theory, move an economy towards its internal and external goals. But what if devaluationwere ruled out? Mundell (1968) suggested that if we introduce international capital mobility into themodel, it might be possible to reach point E by using monetary policy to achieve EB and fiscal policyfor IB. Table 3 shows how this could be done for our cases A to D.In case A, for example, instead of using expenditure switching policies to improve the BOP, theauthorities could adopt a tight monetary policy instead, to raise interest rates and attract foreigncapital. However, since high interest rates might also contract domestic activity and make therecession worse, fiscal policy is used at the same time to expand output and employment.然而，因为高利率可能还影响到国内经济活动，使用这样的财政政策的同时，可以扩大产出和就业。

In this way, the government can ‘assign’ various policy instruments to achieve the twin goals of IBand EB, but upon what basis do the authorities chose to use a particular policy for a particular goal?Mundell’s solution to this assignment problem was to suggest a rule which has become known as ‘theprinciple of effective market classification’. This says that the authorities should assign the policy tothe goal upon which it is likely to have the greatest relative impact. This ensures that the authoritiesmove in the right direction, and that the net costs of BOP adjustment are minimised. In case A, forexample, both fiscal policy and monetary policy could be used to expand output. However, followingKeynes’ assumption that fiscal policy is more direct and has less time lags, fiscal policy is taken tohave the greatest relative impact on this target and monetary policy on the BOP. This furtherillustrated in FIG’s 2 and 3. The EB curve is shifted to the right by an increase in exports caused bynon-domestic policies - for example, faster growth abroad leading to higher exports of UK goods andservices, or a relative improvement in UK competitiveness because of a relative foreign price rise orappreciation in foreign exchange rates.