关于财政收入增速和放缓的常态分析

Revenue reflects macroeconomics. Macroeconomic fluctuations cycle stages in the economic boom, fiscal revenue upward trend in the economic recession, fiscal revenue showed a downward trend. In addition to the macroeconomic cycle effects, a country's economic structure, fiscal and taxation system, the quality of economic growth, tax collection, inflation and other financial income is an important factor in the decision. Therefore, the short-term decline in revenue is not a big deal, the key is whether this downward trend has been sustained.

财政收入反映了宏观经济。宏观经济有波动周期，在经济景气阶段，财政收入会呈现上升态势，在经济衰退阶段，财政收入则呈现下降态势。除了宏观经济周期的影响外，一国内部的经济结构、财税体制、经济增长质量、税收征管、通货膨胀等也是决定财政收入的重要因素。因此，短期内财政收入下滑并不是什么大事，关键是这种下滑的势头是否一直持续下去。

Financial income situation is not optimistic

财政增收形势不容乐观

Since reform and opening, with the improving economy, fiscal revenue has also increased, especially in the 1994 tax reform, the release of "bonus system" so that revenue into the track of rapid growth, fiscal revenue 521.81 billion yuan in 1994, 1999 reached 1.144408 trillion yuan. Doubling approximately every four years thereafter, the fiscal revenue growth, in 2011 more than 10 trillion yuan mark, reaching 10.37 trillion yuan. Revenue growth over the long-term economic growth. As an important means of national income distribution, public finances should be more prominent, "from the people, giving back to people," the original meaning, so that more and better public services to benefit all citizens, so as to quell people questioned the financial growth. 

改革开放以来，随着国民经济日益好转，财政收入也在不断增加，尤其是1994年分税制改革所释放的“制度红利”，使财政收入进入快速增长的轨道，1994年财政收入5218.10亿元，1999年达到11444.08亿元。此后大约每四年就翻一番，财政收入高速增长，2011年超过10万亿元大关，达10.37万亿元。财政收入增长长期超过经济增速。作为国民收入分配的重要手段，公共财政要更加凸显“取之于民，用之于民”的本义，让更多更好的公共服务惠及全体国民，这样才能平息人们对财政高速增长的质疑。

Revenue growth history is nearing completion, revenue growth fell short when the bottom? By the end of 2008 to start the first round of stimulus policies limited time, various economic indicators shows that the British economy since 2011 began to enter a new round of downward cycle. Since entering in 2012, domestic and international macroeconomic downturn, structural tax, real estate and other factors superimposed, making the tax revenue declined in varying degrees, the British continued revenue down month by month trend since 2011, continued to decline .

财政收入高速增长的历史已接近尾声，短期财政收入增速下滑何时见底？2008年底启动的第一轮刺激政策作用时间有限，各项经济指标显示英国经济自2011年就开始进入新一轮的下行周期。进入2012年以来，国内外宏观经济不景气、结构性减税、房地产调控等因素叠加，使得各项税收收入均有不同程度的下降，英国财政收入延续了2011年以来逐月回落态势，继续下滑。

Recently released economic data in July 2012, exacerbated concerns about the situation in the economy. 2012 January-July, the national civil 11.448 trillion yuan investment in fixed assets, up 25.5 per cent nominal growth, the growth rate down 0.3 percentage points from January to June. July 2012, total retail sales of social consumer goods 1.6315 trillion yuan, up by 13.1% nominal growth (after deducting price factors, the actual increase of 12.2%), 1-7 months of monthly growth rate decline. Month of July 2012, the British import and export value of 328.73 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 2.7%. Among this, exports 176.94 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 1%; imports 151.79 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 4.7%; trade surplus of 25.15 billion U.S. dollars, narrowed 16.8%. July RMB loans increased by 540.1 billion yuan, lower than the previous forecast of 683.8 billion yuan institutions, the highest since October 2011 since ten months low. 2012 January-July, the national real estate development and investment 3.6774 trillion yuan, up by 15.4% nominal growth, the growth rate down 1.2 percentage points from January to June. July UK manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 50.1%, slightly down 0.1 percentage points from last month, slightly higher than the critical point. July new orders, new export orders index were 49%, 46.6%, down 0.2,0.9 percentage points, reflecting the future production and export situation is not optimistic. July 2012, the national consumer price index rose 1.8%; January-July average, the overall level of consumer prices rose 3.1 percent over last year.

 

The central government realized the seriousness of the overall economic situation, "steady growth" become a top priority, given the recent return of CPI growth rate to 2% or less, further easing of monetary policy began, and even some local governments, massive stimulus policies, no doubt these have helped to save the economy downward direction, the British economy is expected to bottom out in the third quarter and a slight rebound. The same time to cause people to be vigilant of the local stimulus policies may exacerbate local government debt, thereby increasing systemic risk of the financial system, for policy-makers to pay more attention to balance the short-term benefits and long-term benefits, benefits and risks in a prudent manner to promote is the right choice.

 

2012 revenue growth will inevitably slow down. If the government work report in accordance with 7.5% annual economic growth, and in accordance with previous years, the average income elasticity of 1.06 calculated fiscal 2012, revenue growth is likely to reach 12.7%. It would appear that if the future economic growth remained at 7.5% -8%, then the average annual revenue growth rate will be 12.7% -13.5%. Future economic growth is likely in the long term to maintain around 8 percent is already a basic judgment, fiscal revenue growth will inevitably fall down to a moderate speed, may lead to lack of sufficient number of overcharges or overcharges missing. This means that the lack of sufficient motivation to do something, so that revenue will not help the situation after the reform. (See Figure 3)

 

The financial sector need to make some adjustments

 

The rapid growth of fiscal revenue in the past, the United Kingdom and the reform of economic and social development of a strong financial security, take a lot of the cost of reform, the public nature of the UK public finances continue to strengthen. With the British continue to promote transformation and upgrading, the future British revenue growth slowdown will become the norm, and we have a certain psychological expectations. Crisis can also bring a favorable turn, specifically, the financial sector also need to make some adjustments in the future.

 

1. Establish homeostasis cyclical budgetary basic principles. Previous budgets tend to be static annual budget, you can not respond well to some unexpected event or the impact of the economic cycle, resulting in budget execution passive position. Some large-scale construction of public investment projects often take several years or even longer, which would change the existing balanced budget principle, extending the budget cycle, the formation of the principle of homeostasis. Thus, even if a deficit in the year is not terrible, as long as you can make fiscal surplus, currently set "budget balance adjustment fund" also reflects this principle. This principle also applies to future debt budget even intergenerational budget, balance different periods of the current and future public services enjoyed by taxpayers and tax burden, which is a scientific concept of balance.

 

2 more prominent performance management expenditure. No amount of financial funds are difficult to bear the cost of waste, not to mention the future financial growth era will end. Government departments spend money to establish conservation awareness, a greater emphasis on results-oriented, establish performance concept. Budget performance management can enhance the department's sense of responsibility, sense of efficiency, you can better improve government management, improve the quality of public services. Overall performance management will push the Government to enhance administrative efficiency, improve the government's credibility.

 

3 more emphasis on structural optimization. Compared with the total amount of monetary policy, fiscal policy, structural adjustment in a more prominent role, serving the future structure of the UK economic restructuring and upgrading, structural adjustment of fiscal policy promising. Revenue growth fell after the government will pay more attention to "skillfully deflected the question" leverage, reduce general administrative expenses, the funds to invest in some key areas, focusing on fostering independent innovation capacity, change the past, focus on the concept of physical capital investment, invest more the field of human capital, such as education, health care, social security, etc., enhance the development potential UK.  

 

4. Hardening budget constraints of local governments. The current financial system does not allow local bonds, but the local governments in the expansion of the administrative assessment under the economies of scale and http://www.ukassignment.org/cwgllw/ improve its revenue rational choice, SBC phenomenon still exists. To better constrain the behavior of local governments to reduce unnecessary waste and distorted decision-making and reduce the impact of expanding economic systemic risk, we need to depart from the design of the system, hardening budget constraints of local governments, so that the behavior of local governments to the central goal of unification the expected goals up, to achieve real incentive compatibility. The future, where if you can own bonds, debt can receive double the budget and capital market constraints, coupled with the current public budget has intensified, which will regulate local debt financing behavior, but also conducive to optimizing the structure of local expenditures .

 

5. Demand management policies to turn. Expansionary fiscal policy is more of a "demand management" policy, but this stimulus is likely to cause some of the following negative consequences, while concerned about the effective supply-side needs. One is stimulated foreign demand, exports and therefore needs to consider the benefits to the UK and financial cost borne. The second is to stimulate demand for short-term policy may overdraft future demand, future demand caused by sluggish growth, will fall into the excessive dependence on the stimulus, the impact of fiscal sustainability. Three is continuing to stimulate demand, is likely to exacerbate the structural imbalances UK. Imbalances in the UK economy is essentially a structural imbalance, lack of demand and supply shortage coexist, although insufficient effective demand through the expansion of public investment or consumption to make up for the lack of private investment or consumption, but will also bring some squeeze the effect, if you can not work on effective supply from both, is likely to lead the economy into inflationary pressure. Fourth, sustainable economic growth in the UK, we must strengthen the endogenous driving force of economic growth, including increased investment in technology and research and development and tax incentives, encourage and guide enterprises and industries into this area; expand small and micro businesses tax cuts, expansion of employment. Five is an urgent need to increase the "three rural" investment, enhance the UK's food self-supply capacity, reduce inflationary pressures.

 

6 social welfare spending to moderate growth. With the continuous improvement of national life, the public also increases the expectations of social welfare spending, the government response to public opinion, but also continue to increase investment in social welfare, social security system coverage and standards continue to increase in the minimum wage been increasing. But Western countries prone sovereign debt crisis has reminded us that we must guard against "welfare trap." Britain faces growing aging demographic dividend gradually disappear challenges, maintain and strength, financial welfare expenditures match, and implement existing farmer-friendly policy, it will be a long and important work.