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要求：
1. 数据处理用SPSS
2. 在计算中，用SPSS计算得出的数据预测或者是回归分析的表格等等的都要放入appendix里。每一步的计算结果放入正文中
Data数据
The objects of this study are the high-tech listed companies acquired by the foreign companies in China. In this paper, the sample data is from the annual report of market research about the China M&A between 2000 and 2010. At the same time, the financial data of the sample enterprises is gathered from the online resources such as Sohu Business, Yahoo Finance and the Hexun.com etc.这项研究的对象是在中国收购外国公司的高科技上市公司。在本文中，样本数据来自市场调研关于中国并购及2000年至2010年的年度报告。同时，样本企业的财务数据从在线资源，如搜狐财经，雅虎财经和Hexun.com等云集
In order to avoid the subjective judgements in the selection of the sample data, the choice of the sample enterprises is based on the country’s top high-tech enterprises that are acquired by foreign capitals. Then, among these high-tech enterprises, 6 listed firms which have the same characteristics as the real options are selected to be sample in this study. In addition, the choice of the sample should also satisfy some other conditions. Secondly, the foreign M&A agreement must be signed at the time between 2002 and 2008. Also, the M&A events must involve the application of real options. Thirdly, before the mergers and acquisitions, the operating income of target firms (sample) must be showing a relatively stable growth in order to get the better predictions about the future profits. Also, after the signing of the M&A agreement, the acquired and target firms should complete the M&A, and there are existing price of the M&A events.为了避免在样本数据的选择的主观判断，样本企业的选择是基于被外资收购国内顶尖的高新技术企业。然后，在这些高科技企业， 6家上市公司具有相同的特性作为真正的选项被选中成为这一研究的样本。此外，样品的选择也应满足某些其他条件。其次，外资并购协议必须在当时签署2002至2008年之间。此外，并购活动必须涉及的实物期权的应用。第三，并购前，目标公司（样本）的营业收入必须显示，以获得对未来利润的更好的预测相对稳定的增长。此外，并购协议签订后，被收购和目标公司应完成的并购，并有并购活动的现有价格。
Research method
In this part, Free Cash Flow (FCF) Model and the Real Options Valuation based on the predicted financial data will be firstly used in order to calculate the value of the target firms in the M&A events. Then, this paper will use the FCF valuation model which is based on the practical financial data after the M&A to get the reference value for the rationality test.
First of all, according to the Brealey et al. (2005), when people take no account of the options, the firms’ value should be:
In corporate finance, free cash flow (FCF) is cash flow available for distribution among all the securities holders of an organization, the calculation formula is:
Afterwards, the mathematical software called SPSS will be used to simulate the mathematical models between the operating income and the time, which is based on the pre-merger historical financial data. These models are used to predict the future operating incomes after M&A. In order to test the rationality of the simulation model, MAPE will be used as follow:
Where, Y_(t )is the practical future operating income; Y ̂_t is the predicted future operating income.
If the MAPE≤10%, the accuracy of the simulation is high.
If the 10%≤MAPE≤20%, the accuracy of the simulation is medium.
If the 20%≤MAPE≤50%, the accuracy of the simulation is low.
If the 50%≤MAPE, the simulation is unsuccessful.
Then, this study use the linear regression model to estimate the relationship between the financial data (in the FCF formula above) and the operating income, in order to predict the future financial data. After that, the predicted free cash flows in all periods can be calculated.
Whereafter, the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) can be calculated by the formula:
Where:
= total market value
= cost of equity
= the total market value of one type of bonds
R_d=cost of debt
= corporate tax rate
In this WACC formula, the cost of equity should be getting from the Capital Assets Pricing Model, shown as below:
 
Where:
C= value of the option V’
= the price of the stock
X= the strike price of the option
= the annualized risk-free interest rate
= the volatility of the stock's returns; this is the square root of the quadratic variation of the stock's log price process
T= time to maturity
The V_1 and V’ can be obtained from the above formulations, therefore, in the case of considering the real options, the total value of the business under M&A events based on the Real Options model, is:
Thirdly, this paper refers to a value V as a frame of reference in order to measure the rationality of the traditional FCF valuation model and the Real Options model. The value for reference V can be calculated by using the Discounted FCF model based on the practical financial data of the business. These practical financial data is from the financial statements of the listed firms after the signing of the M&A agreements.
The last but not be least, regarding the V as the frame of reference, this study will carry out the rationality test of the valuation models. The first stage is to build up the reasonable test indicators, α and β:
More specifically, when (β – α) is less than 0, there is a relatively small gap between the V2 based on the Real Options model and the V. That is to say the Real Options valuation method is superior to the Discounted FCF valuation model in assessing the value of business under M&A events. On the contrary, when (β – α) is greater than 0, there is a relatively large gap between the V2 based on the Real Options model and the V. It means that the discounted FCF valuation model is superior to the Real Options valuation method.
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