发展中国家的汇率政策

发展中国家的汇率政策

 

作为发展政策或结构调整的工具，汇率策略可以用来追求最多样化的目标。本文将探讨提供给发展中国家的汇率政策有哪些。由于1973年国际货币体系坍塌，现在许多发展中国家都有各种各样可供选择的汇率制度而不再是像以前一样建立在固定汇率制度的基础上。然而，他们仍然面临着许多问题，如增加的国际收支逆差，贸易失衡的恶化，因此导致的出口收入负值，以及高失业率和通货膨胀的压力。

 

为了应对这些结构性失衡，建立一个合适的汇率制度非常重要。汇率机制（ERR）被定义为“一定程度上来说，由政府或是市场力量决定一个国家的汇率，政府可以在众多汇率制度中进行选择”（ Michael G. Hall, 2005,第三页）。

 

汇率制度的光谱由三个主要的政策组成，分别是固定汇率，灵活的制度（可调，灵活的汇率。Richard C. Barth 和 Chong-Huey Wong, 1994,第16页）或介于两者之间的汇率制度。

 

浮动汇率（由政府操纵的汇率浮动）制度包括“货币市场是汇率的主要决定因素，政府作为决定者，可以通过调整货币供应量来提高或降低利率或汇率，或通过干预货币市场来影响汇率。政府不一定会受已宣布的汇率目标的影响“（Michael G. Hall, 2005, 第5页）。

 

Exchange rate policies in developing countries

 

Exchange-rate strategies may be used to pursue the most varied objectives as instruments of development policy or of structural adjustment. The following essay will examine the number of exchange-rate policy options that are available to developing countries. Since the collapse of the international monetary system in 1973 which was based on a fixed exchange rate system, many developing countries today have a wide variety of alternative exchange rate systems available to them. However with this being said they are still faced with many issues such as increases in the balance of payments deficit, deterioration in terms of trade imbalances and thus negative export earnings as well as high unemployment and inflationary pressures.

 

To combat these structural imbalances it is important to have an exchange-rate regime in place. An exchange-rate regime (ERR) is defined by the "extent to which either government or market forces determine a countries exchange rates and the government can choose from a number of exchange-rate regime options" (Michael G. Hall, 2005, page 3).

 

The spectrum of exchange rate regimes consists of three main policies that constitutes" fixed regime (pegged exchange rates), Flexible regime (adjustable and flexible exchange rates" (Richard C. Barth and Chong-Huey Wong, 1994, page 16) or between adjustable peg rates and rigidly fixed exchange rate system.

 

The floating exchange rate (managed float) system involves "currency markets as the main determinant of exchange rates, but the government, at its discretion, may influence the exchange rate by adjusting the money supply to raise or to lower interest rates or exchange rates or by intervening in currency markets. The government does not necessarily commit itself to an announced exchange rate target" (Michael G. Hall, 2005, page 5).

 

The case for floating exchange rates is that it achieves internal balance as well as external balance without having to intervene in domestic objectives. As the government does not have to interfere in the market to maintain exchange rate stability, it can control one of the internal aspects e.g. money supply so that high employment and inflation is sustained.

 

Current account deficits are automatically eliminated by changes in the market for foreign exchange and also policy makers have more monetary flexibility and independence. This is also beneficial for the economies as the adjustment will be less costly, and can vary in order to promote domestic changes.

 

Of the developing countries that have floated successfully and independently on a sustained level have been Lebanon and South Africa. These were the exceptions from the many that did join the floating exchange rate system due to an increase in balance of payments deficit.

 

In Lebanon "maintenance of a floating exchange rate was seen as part of the country's commitment to an open and commercially free environment for trade and in South Africa to float its currency, at a time of relative balance of payments strength, was influenced at least in part by the desire to improve conditions for monetary control" Peter J. Quirk Benedicte Vibe Christensen, Kyung-Mo Huh ,T. Sasaki, 1987, page 4)

 

The fixed exchange rate system comprises of the single-currency peg and multi-currency peg and implies "that the monetary authorities set the value of the domestic currency with reference to another currency, or a basket of currencies" (Subrata Ghatak & Jose R. Sanchez-Fung, 2007, pg 187).

 

"An obvious advantage of fixed exchange rates is that transaction costs within the monetary area will be lower. This will be much less true if there remains a separate currency with a currency board as opposed to using a foreign currency, and even where there is a single currency the experience of the euro indicates that the benefits can be slow in materializing, but the benefits are relatively certain.

 

Economists (e.g. Franklin 1999) customarily cite the provision of a nominal anchor as the other great benefit of a fixed exchange rate. They rely on the postulate of zero-degree homogeneity to argue that if one locks in the foreign price level by a fixed exchange rate, then this will guarantee that the domestic price level approaches a determine equilibrium level.

 

Fixed rates tend to stimulate international trade and especially foreign direct investment (FDI) as exchange rates stay on the same level, importers and exporters can trade without the problem of currency fluctuations in transactions. Furthermore fixed exchange rates make manufacturers more efficient i.e. they will be more aware to maintain the quality of the goods and services as well as keeping the costs of production down in order to stay competitive with international firms. The risk of inflation is greatly reduced and stabilises money supply within the economy. However a fixed exchange rate regime does impose one main disadvantage that being the high vulnerability of the system to speculative attacks. When a developing county e.g. Argentina experiences excess amount of demand and supply within their foreign currency and the central banks are unable to cover the gap between the existing resources and demand, this will reduce positive effects and decrease the credibility of the currency as rates will not change.

 

Though it could be said that "given the disadvantages of both permanently fixed and independently floating exchange rates, it is not surprising that many developing countries have tried various intermediate regimes in an effort to combine the advantages of the two systems" (Oxford review of economic policy, Exchange rate policies in developing countries, Vijay Joshi, 3/01/11).

 

There are two basic types: adjustable peg and crawling peg. "Under the adjustable peg system, the country undertakes an obligation to defend the peg, but reserves the right to alter the exchange rate to correct a fundamental disequilibrium. Under the crawling peg regime, the country undertakes an obligation to defend the peg, but either commits itself to moving the peg in small steps in accordance with a pre-announced rule-the rule-based crawling peg-or reserves the right to change the peg in steps which are small but discretionary in size and timing" (Oxford review of economic policy, Exchange rate policies in developing countries, Vijay Joshi, 4/01/11).

 

The underlying principle behind the adjustable peg system and why many developing countries have implemented this system is that it secures exchange rate stability and avoids changes in the exchange rate in response to shocks and provision of inflationary measures.

 

The main issue with the adjustable peg and is often criticised for is that it leads to delayed response and adjustment of the exchange rate. This results in governments having to control balance of payments with a fixed exchange rate for a prolonged period. This has adverse implications for macroeconomic balances.

 

A crawling peg system allows "As far as internal and external balance are concerned, the advantage of crawling is that corrective changes in the nominal exchange rate are carried out frequently and automatically and real exchange rate misalignments arising out of differential rates of inflation are not allowed to build up. It allows a country to have a different inflation rate from its trading partners without adverse effects on output, clearly a consideration of great importance in countries which have a history of rapid inflation "(Oxford review of economic policy, Exchange rate policies in developing countries, Vijay Joshi, 4/01/11).

 

My conclusion from an informal point of view is that floating exchange rates have a strong advantage over fixed exchange rates, at least in the absence of common currencies.

 

In this current climate, where we have witnessed the growing economic, political and social integration of developing countries as well as rapid development of international trade and economic specialization, the advantages of a fixed exchange rate regime in relation to other systems do not sufficiently cover the losses. Developing countries still have the problem of a weak banking system as well as poor economic policy and so I believe that a floating exchange rate system are the choice, as it brings about economic stability, as well as flexibility and monetary and fiscal independence to a large extent.

 

Many international economists believe that the future is promising and there may be greater perspectives for those countries whose financial system is based on the floating exchange rate system as the risks of instability will be eliminated. The level of financial liberty can be different for different regions of the world, and the policies that can lead them to economical growth can also be different, but the general belief is that the flexible exchange rate system offers better opportunities for successful economical development than fixed exchange rate system.