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印度央行印度储备银行（RBI），离开其关键利率在8%不变，这一令人意外的举动。大多数分析师和观察家们预测，随着经济增长放缓，银行将降低借款成本。印度的经济增长在一月和三月之间的年利率5.3%，九年来的最低水平。然而央行表示，降息会对物价施加压力。”中央银行在一份声明中说，我们对当前增长通胀动态的评估是，有几个因素导致了活动的放缓，特别是在投资方面，利率的作用相对较小。因此，在这个关键时刻，进一步减少政策利率，而不是支持增长，可能会加剧通胀压力。”
Indias central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), has left its key interest rate unchanged at 8% in a surprise move. Most analysts and observers had forecast the bank would drop the cost of borrowing amid slowing growth. Indias economy grew at an annual rate of 5.3% between January and March, its slowest pace in nine years. However the RBI said that a cut in interest rates would have put pressure on consumer prices. "Our assessment of the current growth-inflation dynamic is that there are several factors responsible for the slowdown in activity, particularly in investment, with the role of interest rates being relatively small," the central bank said in a statement. "Consequently, further reduction in the policy interest rate at this juncture, rather than supporting growth, could exacerbate inflationary pressures."
Delicate balancing act 微妙的平衡
不断上涨的消费价格一直是印度政策制定者在过去两年中最大的担忧之一。央行采取了各种措施，以控制价格上涨，包括提高利率自3月13日以来的2010倍。虽然近几个月通胀率略有回落，但仍高于其他新兴经济体。根据上周公布的数据，印度的批发价格指数，该国居民消费价格的关键指标，5月份同比增长7.55%。分析人士表示，经济增长放缓和高通胀的组合，使得央行很难制定政策。”央行显然认为通胀压力仍然太强，进一步放松货币政策从这里，”Jonathan Cavenagh说，这是一个微妙的平衡行为，因为增长势头很差，政策在我们看来仍然过于严格，特别是考虑到较弱的国际背景。
Rising consumer prices have been one of the biggest concerns for India's policymakers over the past two years. The central bank took various measures in a bid to control the rising prices, including raising interest rates 13 times since March 2010. While the inflation rate has come down slightly in recent months, it still remains higher than many of the other emerging economies. According to data released last week, India's wholesale price index, the key measure of consumer prices in the country, rose by 7.55% in May from a year earlier. Analysts said the combination of slowing growth and high inflation had made it difficult for the central bank to formulate its policies. "The RBI obviously feels that inflation pressures remain too strong to ease policy further from here," said Jonathan Cavenagh of Westpac. "It's a delicate balancing act though, as growth momentum is poor and policy remains too restrictive in our view, particularly given the weaker international backdrop."
Credit outlook 信贷前景的展望
Also on Monday, credit rating agency Fitch downgraded its outlook for Indian debt from "stable" to "negative". This follows a similar move by Standard and Poor's in April. Both agencies maintained India's crediting rating at BBB-, which is the lowest category of investment-grade sovereign debt. It is feared that the negative outlooks from Fitch and S&P are a precursor to a full credit downgrade. That would make India the first G20 economy to have its debt relegated to "junk" status, which denotes a high-risk or speculative investment.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the current level of interest rates [1] at 8% unexpectedly. Interest rates affect aggregate demand [2] (AD) and AD affects country two big economic issues: inflation [3] and economic growth [4] . An increase in the interest rates would lead to less borrowing and more saving, therefore less spending. Therefore, there is an inverse relationship between interest rates and the AD but the relation between the AD and the inflation and economic growth is complicated; table 2.1 shows this relation. Figure 2.1 shows that an increase in the AD from AD to AD1 would result in an increase in both the average price level (therefore inflation rate) and the economic growth in short-run. A higher inflation rate is harmful to the economy because it leads to a decrease in the purchasing power of income, fewer savings for investment purposes, and raised nominal interest rates. On the other hand, economic growth is not necessarily good for everyone and it may mean no actual improvement in the economy but it is still mainly regarded as positive. In this situation, to do the right thing, RBI should know the elasticity of demand and supply curves in the figure 2.1 and consider the opportunity costs before using any monetary policy [5] .
However, in long-run, economists are divided among two schools of thought: Keynesian and Neo-classical. In the Keynesian model, long-run aggregate supply (LRAS) is perfectly elastic at first because of the existence of the spare capacity caused by unused factors in the economy (figure 2.2 red part), then after a point, the spare capacity is started to used up so the LRAS is upward-sloping (figure 2.2 green part), and finally after the level of full capacity, it is perfectly inelastic (figure 2.2 purple part). On the other hand, Neo-classical economists do not believe in the relation between the potential output of the economy and the price level, therefore they think that the LRAS is perfectly inelastic (also figure 2.2 purple part). Firstly in the red part, an increase from AD1 to AD2 would only affect real output positively from Y1 to Y2 and have no effect on the price level (it would be still P1). In this case, since the outcome is positive, the central bank should increase the AD by decreasing interest rates. Secondly, in the green part, an increase from AD3 to AD4 would increase both the real output from Y3 to Y4 and the average price level from P2 to P3; the central bank should consider the factors that are already mentioned in the short-run, before making a decision in this case. Thirdly, in the purple part that represents both the Keynesian model last part and the Neo-classical model, an increase in from AD5 to AD6 would only affect the average price level positively from P4 to P5 and have no effect on the economic growth level (it would be still Y5). Because of the negative outcome, the RBI should use deflationary monetary policies to better the economy current situation.
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