留学生关于货币供给的金融管理学论文_MBA Essay_ESSAY_ukassignment,英国作业|留学生作业网

股票市场在一个国家的经济增长中发挥了重要作用,证券交易所因为他们对经济活动的影响而在全球经济中发挥重要作用。例如股票交易所允许公司迅速地获得资本,由于游刃有余的交易来源。因此,证券交易所的交易活动在帮助发现宏观经济活动影响中发挥了重要作用。也有相当数量的著作研究关于股票价格的变动。可能是其中一个重要的主题得到越来越多经济学家,金融投资者和政策制定者的关注,这些活跃的宏观经济指针都对股票价格产生影响。宏观经济力量通过对预期未来现金流向对股票价格有着定期的影响。证券交易所的价格对于基本宏观经济指针非常敏感。经济的增长中不同的政策的影响可以通过证券交易所显示的价格增加计算出来(Abdullah, 1997)。

卡拉奇证券交易所是在巴基斯坦的卡拉奇于1947年9月18日成立的证券交易所,它从5所公司Rs.3700万的资本开始。它是巴基斯坦最大的和最古老的证券交易所,拥有许多巴基斯坦以及海外上市公司。其目前的前提是定位于卡拉奇商业区核心的证券交易所,卡拉奇证券交易所开始于50股指数。随着市场发展代表指数的需要。在贫穷的政治条件、社会问题、金融和其他问题下,卡拉奇证券交易所在巴基斯坦经济中扮演了至关重要的作用。KSE 100-指数显示有40.19%的回报率,并成为2007年最好交易市场第六名。最大的一个里程碑是在2008年4月20日,在卡拉奇证券交易所历史上第一次达到kse-100指数水平的15000点。另外,在2008年提高了7.4%百分点,这在所有新兴市场中是表现最好的。截至2009年6月1日在卡拉奇股市中有651家拥有市值264.8亿美元的上市公司,资本达到96.5亿美元。2010年6月19日,KSE 100-指数收于9645点。尽管在7月30日卡拉奇股市的总市值达到Rs2.95亿,大约350亿美元左右(Safi Ullah Khan and Faisal Rizwan, 2008).

货币供应和交易量-Money Supply And Trading Volumes

Stock market plays a significant role in the economic growth of a country. Stock exchange performance has an important role in global economics, because of their impact on economic activity. For example stock exchanges allow firms to acquire capital quickly, due to the effortlessness source of traded. Stock exchange activity, therefore, plays a significant role in helping to find out the effects of macroeconomic activities. The review of literature has considerable number of studies that look at the stock prices movements. Possibly one significant subject that has inward increasing interest from economists, financial investors and policy makers is on active effects of macroeconomic pointers on stock prices. Macroeconomic forces have regular influences on stock prices by way of their influences on expected future cash flows. Stock exchange prices are extremely sensitive to essential macroeconomic pointers. The effect of different policies on the growth of an economy can be calculated by the increase in stock exchange prices (Abdullah, 1997).

The Karachi Stock Exchange is a stock exchange situated in Karachi, Pakistan, established on 18 September, 1947 it started with 5 companies with a capital of Rs. 37 million. It is Pakistan's biggest and oldest stock exchange, with a lot of Pakistani as well as overseas listings. Its present premises are placed on Stock Exchange Road, in the heart of Karachi's Business District. KSE starts with a 50 shares index. As the market developed a representative index was needed. In poor political condition, social issues, financial and other problems, KSE played a vital role in the economy of Pakistan. KSE 100-index showed a return of 40.19% and became the sixth best markets in the year 2007. It gets a biggest milestone by touching of KSE-100 Index level of 15,000 for the first time in the history of Karachi stock exchange on 20 April, 2008. On the other hand, the raise of 7.4 percent in 2008 build-up the best performer in all the emerging market. As at June 1, 2009 there were 651 companies listed at KSE with market capitalization of US $ 26.48 billion having listed capital of US $ 9.65 billion. The KSE 100TM Index closed at 9645 points on 19 June, 2010. Although by 30th July total market capitalisation of the KSE reached Rs2.95 trillion, approximately around 35 billion dollars (Safi Ullah Khan and Faisal Rizwan, 2008).

Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index (KSE-100 Index) is a stock index acting as a standard to compare prices on the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) over a period of time. In formative representative companies to calculate the index on, companies with the maximum market capitalization are selected. On the other hand, to ensure maximum market representation, the company with the maximum market capitalization from each sector is also incorporated. Karachi Stock Exchange is the largest and most liquid exchange in Pakistan.

Money balances are merely one of a number of highly liquid assets which the individual may consider as part of his liquidity portfolio evaluated by the sum of financial and real assets. A steady rate of growth in the money stock matched with real growth in economic yield should generate no serious longer-run liquidity. One would expect the demand for liquidity balances to rise as real output and, in return, incomes rises. Under this situation, one may think as to the forces generating general asset price modification. Possibly such alterations would be associated to the economic viewpoint, emotional pressures, and altering inclination amongst investors for financial assets. In addition, these forces would be unlinked to money stock. When the economy's money supply rises, investors come across that the money portion of their assets is too huge and effort to regain the wanted portfolio mix by purchasing other assets such as stocks, compelling their prices to increase.

The understanding of the stock market has long attracted mutually the academician and the stock trader. Consequently, this area has produced a number of descriptive stock market models ranging from those based upon exact analytic frame works to doubtful intuitive reasoning .Money flow-whether money is flowing into or out of a meticulous security-is supposedly an indication of present excess supply or demand. That is, if uptick trades are supposed to be the buyer initiate and downtick trades are supposed to be seller initiate, a positive disparity between uptick dollar volume and downtick dollar volume match up to "excess demand." Furthermore, proponents of by means of money flow state that existing excess demand (supply) predicts future excess demand (supply) and, as a result, positive (negative) money flow forecasts stock-price raising in a falling trend (Gllent, Rossi, and Tauchen, 1992).

A several factors are attributed to the optimistic sentiment in Pakistan’s stock market throughout the last seven years (2000-07). These factors include: fast privatization practices of government owned enterprises, attract foreign investors in important organizations, like Pakistan Telecommunication Company Limited, Electricity Supply and National Refinery and so on, allowing foreign investors to send their funds without any constraint; decrease in the interest rates by the banks; continuous development in economic essentials and higher industrial growth. These aspects are attached with different rules and laws, were introduced mostly for the security of the small investors, and to get efficiency in trade by computerization and restriction insider trading. These methods were taken besides reinforcement the structure of the Security Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP). These significant developments and measures have put in to the extraordinary growth in Pakistan’s equity market throughout the last several years (Safi Ullah Khan and Faisal Rizwan, 2008).

The type of the link between money supply and common stock prices can be most defined as if a share of common stock is observed as an asset that produce its profits to the investor over time. When stock returns are linked to these better anticipations of money growth rates prior money terminologies drop practically all importance while present and particularly the next two months' money terms persists to show a obvious link to current stock returns. This is a proof that stock returns predicts future monetary disorders by utilizing of information as well as information of current and past growth rates of the money supply (Barro, 1977).

This study explored the relationship of Money Supply (M2) and trading volume of KSE - 100 Index that whether they have the positive or negative relationship among them. Hence following hypothesis is constructed in order to get the desired result. The data used in this research has taken on the monthly basis. Moreover Monthly Money Supply is taken as independent variable and Monthly Trading Volume of KSE - 100 Index as a dependent variable.

假设-Hypothesis:

Money supply (M2) has a significant relationship with trading volume of KSE - 100 Index"

文献综述-LITERATURE REVIEW

Money Flow is assured as the disparity among upward and downward trading degree, has been used as an expertise pointer since the beginning of 1970s. Newly, however, the recognition of the rate has amplified radically. For instance, since October 1998, the Wall Street Journal is covering money flow for 4 main indexes and the 30 companies with the maximum and minimum flows on daily basis (Fama and K. French, 1997) Moreover much cyber investment investigating sites supply money flow statistics. Whether money is curving in or out of a specific security is supposedly a clue of present surplus supply or demand. That is, if upward trades are supposed to be consumer started and downward trades are supposed to be supplier started, an upbeat distinction among upward dollar volume and downward dollar volume relate to "excess demand." Likewise, proponents of utilizing money flow state that present excess demand (supply) forecast upcoming excess demand (supply), thus, positive (negative) money flow predicts stock-price raise (decline) (Brown and Brooke, 1993).#p#分页标题#e#

Trades that took place at a top (low) price than the prior trade were categorized as rising (declining) trades. Trades that happened at the same price as the prior trade do not put in to money flow and were deleted. The money flow linked with each lasting trade in the research is the dollar volume of the trade, declared positive if the trade took place on an upward and negative if the trade took place on a downward. These both money flows were aggregated to calculate the day to day money flow for each company. However money flow is also expected to have link to consequent money flow and return. Many reasonable settings are expected to upshot in such money flow determination (Barclay, 1993).

Most economists are in agreement today that monetary policy has selected significance in scheming the economy, there is petite agreement as to how vital it is, or which monetary variable is the main variable. Pre-Keynesian economists articulated that there was a conventional connection among the money supply and GNP. If the volume of money is doubled, for instance, for any basis, the interest rate would drop primarily. The abridged interest rate would rouse borrowing, investment and consumption while the reason to keep would be compacted. Total demand for goods and services would thus be raised and with a stable dynamic ability, prices would have to go up. Thus, once prices start to go up, the interest rate would go up again in answer to the equivalent drop in the "real" money supply. Prices would go up until they were doubled their initial level, thus tumbling purchasing power of the money supply to its earliest value and stability would be reinstated. The interest rate would also go back to its initial level, where saving and investment are alike. Economists first became cynical with this typical monetary theory during the depression for many good causes. For one thing, while the money supply about twice over between 1933 and 1940, prices risen up only a little and economic doings stayed in the depressions until the huge increase in government war costs lastly drawn the country out of the doldrums (Bollerslev, 1992).

In the quarter century since World War II, the reverse happening took place-the economy arouse at more than twice the rate of money supply growth. Most economists finally decided that, opposing earlier views, the link between the money supply and GNP was very floppy. In late 1940's, Keynesians measured money supply to be only one of the many factors which control the economy (Hossain, 1990).

Fiscal policy is deemed to be of little significance in scheming the economy, principally in contrast to money supply. In contemporary years, the Economics Department of the University of Chicago has become the core of a new quantity theory, alike the old one, but that the Chicago School analyze that money supply straightly influence spending, apart from the trend in interest rates. Both sides see eye to eye that a more quick monetary growth, with any given fiscal policy will arouse the economy. The variation is that Keynesians see the money supply as being a more inactive factor in the inflationary illustration. Both schools of thought have a same mind that at least in the short process, a rise in bank reserves will be liable to lower interest rates since the supply of loan able funds is risen up. The new monetary theorists analyze that the increase in the money supply is so accelerated to the economy and the demand for loan able funds that in the long process interest rates certainly go up to higher levels. The "cost of capital" relies upon stock revenue, interest rates and certain tax changes such as the 7% investment tax credit. The main source of short-term fluctuations in personal wealth, that is "wealth effect", is the oscillations in the stock market. They found "credit rationing" to be significant mainly for housing expenditures. When stock prices drop sharply, consumers reduce their spending because of the cut back in their personal wealth (Chan and Lakonishok, 1995).

The negative returns over weekends to transfer in the broker’s shareholder balance in decision to buy & sell. During the week, investors, too busy to do their personal research, tend to follow the advice of their brokers, advice that are skewed to the buy side. On the other hand, on weekend’s investors, free from their personal work as well as from brokers, do their personal research and tend to reach decisions to sell. The outcome is an internet excess supply at Monday’s opening. It is supported by proof showing that brokers do tend to make buy recommendation, by proof that odd-lot dealings tend to be net sales, and by data showing that odd-lot volume is mainly high and institutional volume is mainly low on Mondays. Thus, individual investors tend to sell on Mondays when the shortage of institutional trading decrease liquidity. An additional explanation for the negative weekend effect is that share prices close “too high” on Fridays or “too low” on Mondays. One alternative attributes uncommonly high Friday closing prices to settlement delay. The delay among the trade date and the settlement date charge an interest-free loan until settlement. Friday buyers get two additional days of free credit, creating an encouragement to buy on Fridays and pushing Friday prices up. The decline over the weekend reflects the removal of this incentive. Friday is the day with the best volume and with the mainly positive stock returns. KSE is termed as high-risk high return market where investors seek high-risk premium. During early nineties the non-informational factors apply greater pressure on stock market activity in Pakistan (Hossain, 1990). The primary cause for stock market declining with tight money and high interest rates, apart from the final effect on corporate earnings, is the fact that all financial assets are substitutes, at least to some extent. All the other things being alike, Increase in interest rates will give some investors opportunity to sell stocks and buy fixed income securities. The function of the stock market, in put out modifications in monetary policy to the "real" variables in the economy, is becoming broadly acknowledged among economists of both schools of thought. It is a concept worth deliberating in shaping investment timing strategy (Barclay and Warner, 1993).

The variations in the rates of expansion of the private sector's stock of money may affect that sector's want to exchange money balances for other financial assets. This exchange, in return, may cause pressures heading to variations in the prices of these financial assets. Given these links, two common situations can be found:

(1) Raise in the rate of expansion of the money stock may cause liquidity surplus. This imbalance may stimulate the private sector to exchange excess money balances for small liquid financial assets such as corporate stocks. This exchange may head to increase buying pressures on these small liquid financial assets. Strengthened buying pressures, in return, may provoke price level rising up with respect to these specific assets.

(2) A drop in the rate of growth of the money stock may cause a shortfall liquidity situation. This imbalance may cause a transmission from less liquid financial assets into money. The conclusion of the private sector's effort to acquire liquidity balance may cause selling pressures on these less liquid financial assets which may generate general price dropdown (Granger, 1996).

Conversion of money into near money holdings will not alter the private sector's money stock. Movements of funds into such nonbank financial intermediaries as Savings and Loan Associations just transfer the holdings of money balances i.e., from individuals to nonbank institutions-but do not modify the dollar amount exceptions. It should be observed, however, that currency with-drawls (transfer from demand deposits into currency) by individuals will trim the reserve base of commercial banks and thus restricting their offering capacity. If no counter policy is commenced by the Federal Reserve System, the capacity of commercial banks to make loans and, in return, increase the nation's money supply, will be diminished (Chan and Lakonishok, 1995).

Some proposals about the stock market are broadly accepted, most of members of the financial community possibly agree that alterations in Federal Reserve Board monetary policy tightly affect changes in stock prices. Since past 10 years, the significance of the rate of money supply expansion to the economy and to the stock market has been increasingly acknowledged. For many stock market analysts, money supply movements are now handed as advanced indicators of trends in central bank monetary policy and are regularly deduce as proposing updates about future stock price movements. Margin requirements, the discount rate, federal funds rates, reserve requirements and statements by Fed officials are broadly conveyed in the financial press and are recognized indicators of whether monetary policy is "tapering" or "slackening," with the anticipation that a tighter monetary policy will be linked with falling stock prices and a simpler monetary policy with increasing stock prices. Business cycle turning points are linked with previous alterations in the rate of growth of the money stock (Rosa, 1999).#p#分页标题#e#

Predictive form of the monetary portfolio model describes how modifications in growth rates of monetary accumulates heading changes in the prices of stocks (and financial assets) and lead amendments in prices of consumer goods and services. The monetary portfolio model sees investors as holding portfolios of such assets as stocks, bonds, durable goods and money. Investors decide the fraction of wealth they desire to hold in the form of money. When the economy's money supply rises, investors come across that the money portion of their assets is too huge and effort to regain the wanted portfolio mix by purchasing other assets such as stocks, compelling their prices to increase (Karpoff, 1987). Sprinkle outlooks this chain as consuming enough time that one can foretell stock price alterations given information of precedent money supply movements. His main propositions are that as an indicator, the money supply sequence heads stock prices and that the sharp investor can avail this leading indicator to gain above-average profits in stock market investment. These statements have gone greatly unbeaten. Certainly, though that monetary change leads to stock price change using money data which they state is more returnable than a corresponding-risk, naive policy of buying-and-holding stocks. Thus there is a upright body of view that consider the money supply as an indicator by which movements in stock prices can be predicted (Michael, 1974).

The capable market model also offer a clarification for the markdown of future proceedings by the stock market. If information goes up in current that has implications for future stock prices, investor activity will change the current price level so that the predicted proceeding is marked down in today's price. Since discounting can happen with respect to uncirculated as well as circulated information, the stock market can be competent with respect to uncirculated information; that is, prices may wholly show uncirculated as well as circulated information. In the occurrence of money supply movements, a situation can simply be pictured in which knowledge (published and unpublished) becomes accessible which permits investors to predict (correctly) preceding money growth rates. Thus, in a competent market, it would not be at all shocking to uncover that stock prices alteration in prediction of money supply changes if investors bring into play the substitute sources of information to estimate the heading course of the money supply. Also, market onlookers may extract implications about future money supply growth by viewing money market rates and present and predicted Treasury financings (Bollerslev, 1996).

If investors deem money supply data to be positive for stock prices and if the stock market is competent, then struggle by investors aiming to use stated information about alterations in the money supply will upshot in a level of stock prices. A statistical technique that beats these problems and offers a potent test of the power of money supply modifications on stock prices is linear regression. This scheme gives a clear measure of the fraction of the change in stock prices linked with prior changes in money growth rates. Moreover, with this statistical technique, a testimony can be made of the probably that any pattern shown in the data could have happened by chance (Brown and B. Brooke, 1993),

The short of a association among stock returns and prior money data is at first glimpse an upsetting outcome for monetarists (those economists who have emphasis the main role that the money supply plays in changing the price level). Though, the similar linear regression method that shows the trivia of prior changes in the money supply to stock prices demonstrate that the current or consecutive money supply change is fairly important. The monthly money data in the phase since World War II, for example, can reveal about 4 to 10 per cent of the change in stock returns once the current money data is considered.

Variations in monetary growth rates are solidly linked to the stock market once the current changes are taken account for, a outcome that pact with the monetarist view of Sprinkle and that monetary policy have impact on markets. But there is no proof of long delays in stock market response, therefore, of any possibility of returnable expecting stock prices, using variations in monetary policy; prior data has been wholly showed in stock prices of past periods, So cannot help to guess future movements. In addition, a non-expected form of the monetary portfolio models appears to turn the facts while a predictive form does not.

That information may be accessible to the stock market that allows an precise review of upcoming money supply growth and that current stock prices reveals this information. At a minimum, if past money supply growth offers a sign of future money growth, the inference of past money growth for upcoming money growth would be marked down in a capable market (Wang, 1990)

Further than, present data on the monetary base, money market situations, etc., may offer a foundation for consistent foretells of future money growth. If the stock market unfailingly and precisely predicts upcoming monetary growth, it is anticipated to one look a link among current price changes and future recognized money supply variations. To examine for this link, we summed up upcoming variations in money growth rates to the present and prior terms by now present in the linear regression explaining present stock returns. On a monthly footing, in all periods and sub periods and with numerous meanings of money, the outcome is a remarkable and progress in the relationship between stock returns and variations in money supply growth. In the era of 1960's, for example, the influence of the money terminologies to describe stock returns leaped from about two to 16 per cent once we add up upcoming money changes. This numerically important link reveals that a significant fraction of the changes viewed in present stock prices can be associated to following variations in monetary growth rates. The link is also a positive one; more than usual stock price rises are linked with subsequent more than usual money growth rates (Karpoff, 1987).