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内容摘要
早在20世纪90年代，中国就成立了上海证券交易所和深圳证券交易所，由此开辟了中国的股票市场。在这之后，1999年，“证券法”开始实施，这标志着股市的良好运行并且监督体系的不断完善。近年来，股票市场已经对消费者的行为产生了极其重要的影响。股票市场需从宏观和微观两方面来分析，通过“财富效应”和“从众行为”等方面影响居民的消费决策。在本文中，通过收集1995年的数据从而建立了层次分析模型，股票市场将会影响消费者行为并细化，一步一步深入问题，再进行综合评价。在该模型中，将我国股票市场对消费者行为的影响作为研究对象，股票市场，证券经纪业务规范化程度，宏观政策指导，以及相关的法律法规在股票市场中都是最重要的衡量标准。从宏观和微观两个不同层次的目的来说，通过定量和定性的比较解决居民投资家庭可支配收入比例的股票的情况。另外，建立偏微分方程模型，同时结合行为金融学理论对层次分析模型存在的部分缺陷进行改进，从而得出股票市场是影响居民消费行为的最重要的因素，以及股票市场通过改变居民的可收入支配金额使投资股票的比例达到影响股票市场的结论。
Abstract
in the early 1990 s in China set up the Shanghai stock exchange and shenzhen stock exchange has opened up the country's stock market, then the implementation of the "securities law" started in 1999, marked the maintenance of the stock market tends to improve the regulatory system. In recent years, the stock market has become an increasingly important impact on consumer behavior. The stock market mainly from the macro and micro two aspects, through the wealth effect, herd behavior and so on influence on residents' consumption decisions. In this paper, by collecting data in 1995-1995, hierarchical analysis model is established, will the stock market's influence on consumer behavior refinement, the problem step by step a thorough, comprehensive evaluation. In the model to our country stock market's influence on consumer behavior as the research target, selection of stock market, securities brokerage business standardization degree JianQuanDu, macroeconomic policy guidance, and related laws and regulations in the stock market as one of the most important criteria, considering both macroscopic and microscopic levels of motivation, with quantitative and qualitative comparison matrix structure, solve the situation of the residents to invest in the stock of capital proportion of household disposable income. And partial differential equation model is established, and the combination of behavioral finance theory, the partial defects existing in the hierarchical analysis model is improved, it is concluded that the stock market is the most important factors influencing the residents' consumption behavior, and the stock market by changing the amount of disposable income of residents to invest in the stock proportion to achieve the conclusion of the impact. [1][2]
The introduction
From 1986 since the establishment of new China's securities market, China's financial market is developing rapidly. As the Shanghai stock exchange and shenzhen stock exchange in the early 1990 s opened one after another, and then, in 2005 started the pilot reform of non-tradable shares in China at the end of April to work, and in the same year has issued a newly revised "securities law". The development course of the series of the basis of perfecting the Chinese stock market system, running mechanism and related laws and regulations, so that the stock has become an indispensable part of household financial assets in China. [3]
Stock is a larger liquidity and profitability strong financial assets, with most of the residents' propensity to consume in our country. But because of its high risk, affected by the financial market volatility, the consumption behavior of the stock market and the residents of the intimate contact. After the reform of non-tradable shares, the influence of the Chinese stock market wealth effect on consumption behavior has become increasingly apparent. [4]
Chinese stock market is not yet mature but full of potential, and the scholars of our country stock market's influence on consumer behavior research mainly from the theory analysis, and then introduces the empirical analysis, and using the statistical data, mostly, and less study on intrinsic motivation. This article mainly from the Chinese stock market, and degree of regulations JianQuanDu, perfecting securities trading analysis of the stock market, with a half quantitative and qualitative way to stock macro market combined with the inner drive of residents' consumption, and hierarchical analysis model is set up to explore its influence on consumer behavior.
Literature review
Song Jinsong (2011) to personal disposable income as the most important factors affecting consumer spending, by collecting the per capita disposable income of urban households and urban family per capita consumer spending quarterly data and the Shanghai composite index during the same period, impulse response function model is set up, the study of non-tradable shares since the stock market wealth effect influence on the residents' consumer spending, and it is concluded that the eastern region of our country exists in the stock market wealth effect weak positive effect, at the same time consumption and housing consumption also has positive effect on car.
XiaoChengJian (2011) based on the existing relationship between stock market and consumer behavior theories, through the analysis of the wealth effect of stock on the mechanism of action of consumption, and the reform of non-tradable shares as a virtual variables, the data collected from 2001 to 2010, using the empirical analysis it is concluded that in the long run China's stock market before the reform of non-tradable shares is weaker, the wealth effect of the wealth effect of the obvious conclusion after the share reform.
Zheng Zhifeng (2010) using the expectations of the consumption theory in economics and behavioral finance theory, put forward the factors constraining consumption behavior in the stock market mainly securitisation rate, family stock wealth scale, market efficiency, etc., and then determine the transmission mechanism of stock market influence consumer behavior for the wealth effect, liquidity effect, the stock Q effect, etc. By collecting data from 1991-2010, by the method of econometrics bull market and bear market respectively establish error correction model, it is concluded that the stock market during the bull market impact on consumer behavior is greater than the conclusion of a bear market.
Ma Wei junwei (2011) to use monetary policy to represent the macroeconomic policy, studying the relation between macro economic policy and share price volatility, and argued that monetary policy on stock price volatility and price movements have a right to help investors, through to the Shanghai, deep both exchange motherboard market, small and medium-sized enterprise board market, the growth enterprise market is analyzed respectively, to study the level of the stock market under the macroeconomic guidance effect on consumer behavior.
The above documents can be summed up the current scholars analysis on this question mainly from the traditional consumption theory research of economics, emphasizing on the stock market wealth effect and herding effect, and then combined with the statistical data to carry on the empirical analysis, and ignored the study of factors on the stock market itself and the thoughts of intrinsic motivation for residents' consumption behavior. This article from other scholars did not consider expectations of behavioral finance theory and regret theory, this paper will be the Chinese stock market, regulations, JianQuanDu, improve the degree of securities trading as a criterion, with quantitative and qualitative analytic hierarchy model is set up to explore the influence of the parties in the face of consumer behavior of the stock market. At the same time, the residents' consumption behavior would be influenced by other consumer behavior, people will pay close attention to the information on the stock market, to determine their own consumer behavior, but at present our country scholars research is still blank, so this paper will establish a partial differential equation model to analyze the stock market information dissemination mechanism's influence on consumer behavior. [5]
Establish a hierarchy of the stock market impact on consumer behavior analysis model
The stock market's influence on consumer behavior has many factors, and residents' consumption behavior in addition to satisfying the rational economic man hypothesis, also strongly affected by the behavioral finance. According to the expectations of the most classic in the behavioral finance theory and regret theory analysis. Residents in determining investment behavior when consider the profitability of investment, and do not make the investment possible regret, namely will consider opportunity cost problem. In prospect theory reference and the data from 1995-2009, analyses the promoting residents to decide whether the stock market investment environment is the perfect degree of relevant laws and regulations and the standard degree of securities brokerage business. In reference to regret of behavioral finance theory, considering whether residents have regret on investment behavior depends on the expected return on the investment can bring people. Regret of behavioral finance theory in the stock market is shown as: embodied in the stock market under the background of the bull market, without timely intervention on their stock will regret it, early to sell shares of profit will regret; Under the background of a bear market, failed to timely stop out will regret it, the failure to implement points of interest, and then tied up also will regret it. So the consumer behavior is influenced by the stock market is serious, and the government's macroeconomic policy guidance will decide the direction of the stock market. In conclusion, according to the expectations of behavioral finance theory and regret theory, selection of the relevant laws and regulations and improve the level and standard of the economic business of securities companies, stock market trends, government macroeconomic policy support these four factors as influencing factors. [6][7]
(1) hypothesis of the model
1. The stock market there are many factors influence on residents' consumption behavior. Based on the above analysis, hypothesis, the securities brokerage business regulations and improve the standard level, stock market trends, government macroeconomic policy support these four factors are the most important factor, temporary not consider other factors,
2. To invest in the stock of capital accounts for the proportion of household disposable income according to the actual situation is roughly divided into five levels: 5%, 15%, 15%, 25%, 25%, 25%, 35%, 45%, 45%, 45%, assuming that most of the household consumption share of the country's amount accounted for the proportion of available funds included in the scope of above;
3. The residents in our country at the time of consumption are all meet the rational economic man hypothesis, namely the pursuit of self-interest maximization.
(2) model of the symbol
1. The O stands for target layer;
2. C represent rule layer;
3. Use the P solution layer;
4. Use W represents the weight;
5. With r is for residents to invest in the stock of capital accounts for the ratio of household disposable income.
(3) the establishment of the model
Chinese stock markets affect residents' consumption behavior is through the internal factors of stock market and macroeconomic policy factors, and impact on consumer behavior is mainly manifested in the household will be the percentage of disposable income to invest in the stock. As a result, the stock market's influence on consumer behavior can be thought of as layers, namely, through the macroscopic and microscopic dynamics of the stock market to influence the consumption behavior of residents. According to the above ideas, establish a hierarchy of the stock market impact on consumer behavior analysis model, determine the target layer, criterion layer and layer, using qualitative and quantitative methods, to determine the system pass class structure, step by step a comparison and comprehensive analysis, to determine the stock market influence consumer behavior sort the factors important degree, so as to solve the problem. [8]
After the selected model of hierarchical analysis method, to determine the target layer is the problem: the study of consumer behavior in China stock market influence. Because of considering the Shanghai stock exchange in our country opened on December 19, 1990, the shenzhen stock exchange on July 3, 1991 officially opened, so that this 15 years 1995-1995 for the initial development stage of Chinese stock market. Determine the research problem for the Chinese stock market during 1995-1995 the impact on the consumer behavior analysis.
Moreover, suppose that referred to in the movements of the stock market, the securities company's brokerage business specification degree, national macroeconomic policy guidance, improve the degree of relevant laws and regulations are the important factors that affect consumer behavior, so will the above four factors listed as rule layer, study the effect of these four factors on the consumer behavior. [9]
Residents in our country have already mentioned in the assumption with family funds investing in stocks of household disposable income ratio as the stock market the degree of impact on consumer behavior standard, so will the index as a layer. Selection in the 15 years of the related data in 1995-2009 found in most households will hold stock this ratio control in 5% - 5%. , of course, because of age, level of education and degree of regional development difference, the influence of our country there are quite a number of residents not to stock as part of the family financial assets, the residents' consumption stock funds of disposable income ratio of 0. Here for a moment think that the stock market on the part of the residents had no effect on consumer behavior, so don't consider the crowd. Therefore, in the hierarchical analysis model is set up when the scheme layer will for residents to invest in the stock funds of household disposable income ratio respectively 5%, 15%, 5%, 25%, 25%, 35%, 35%, 45%, 45%, 45%, the five items.
According to the above statements, determine the hierarchical analysis model is as follows:
O target layer: the stock market to the influence degree of residents' consumption behavior;
Rule layer C: the stock market, the degree of specification of securities brokerage business, the national macroeconomic policy guidance, the relevant laws and regulations and improve the degree of (ordinal set to C1, C2, C3, C4);
Solution layer P: r were 5%, 15%, 15%, 15%, 25%, 35%, 35%, 35%, 45%, 55% (in turn set to P1, P2, P3, P4, P5).
The results of the analysis analytic hierarchy model
In the process of establishing and solving the model, through the collected data, determine the relationship between the weight of one by one, thus obtained the target layer to plan the stock market in China the influence of residents' consumption behavior decision result. In the analysis of the Matlab results.
(1) analysis rule layer C O the target layer of results
Have to solve the criterion layer on the target weight vector
W1 = (0.5534, 0.2796, 0.1133, 0.5534) T
Taken both rule layer of the influence of four factors on the target layer weights.
In the hierarchical analysis model is established, the target layer is the influence degree of the Chinese stock market on the residents' consumption behavior, the rule layer of four factors of the stock market respectively, degree of specification of securities brokerage business, improve the degree of macroeconomic policy guidance and related laws and regulations. From solving the weight vector, the four factors on the influence degree of the target layer is put in bigger difference.
1. The stock market's impact on consumer behavior
Stock market is clearly all the factors caused the stock market in the most important factors influence on consumer behavior. From the point of solving the results, the impact of its accounts for 55.34% of the total impact, is mentioned in the model is the most crucial part of variables. The stock market is a basic index and evaluate the performance of the stock market. After a study shows that under the condition of the stock market is in a bull market and bear market the stock market wealth effect has a larger difference. In the results of solving the model is got fully certified. The change of the stock market will have a significant impact on residents' consumption behavior, this influence can be through the stock market wealth effect, herd behavior and so on. Stock market is a barometer of national economy, the residents will be through the Shanghai 180 index, the shenzhen 180 index and other indicators to determine the change of the stock market, to change their consumption by the stock market changes in stocks the proportion of funds. Mainly through the Chinese stock market's bullish put to influence the residents' consumption behavior. [10]
2. The degree of specification of securities brokerage business impact on consumer behavior
Can be seen from the results, the degree of specification of securities brokerage business accounting for 27.96% of the listed factors impact on the target layer, is second to the stock market influencing factors. Membership at present our country's securities exchange, the residents most investors need to be engaged in securities brokerage business of securities companies acting sale of securities, and securities brokerage business service level will affect the understanding of the degree of residents to invest in the stock market risk, will affect residents' consumption level of stock. The establishment of the stock market relatively late in our country, has a standard brokerage business of securities companies is gradually developed in recent years. When the study selected the 1995-2009 the 15 years of data, you can see from the data, of which 1995-2005 residents' consumption in the stock of money still is in a state of less, at this stage, the number of securities companies in our country and the kind of business is relatively scarce. But after 2005, as the stock market is increasingly perfect, the form of securities emerge in endlessly, in line with international standards in our country have established many new securities company, provides residents more securities companies to choose, at the same time the securities company to attract customers, innovation business varieties, to gradually improve customer service. Is one of the important measures: the China securities regulatory commission definitely require the securities company in 2007, full implementation of "customer funds pay third-party depository. This shift makes residents to invest in the stock market funds safety guarantee, at the same time maintained the interests of investors. That makes people more believe that investing in the stock market funds is transparent, safe, and strict management, can also let the original stock market investors invest more funds, and make the residents have not invest in the stock market's propensity to consume more stocks. #p#分页标题#e#
3. The macroeconomic policy guidance effect on consumer behavior
In the solving process of macroeconomic policy on the influence of target layer were weighted is about 11.33%, showed the macroeconomic policy to the stock market influence to the residents' consumption behavior is not decisive, but still can not be ignored. Macroeconomic policy orientation primarily through monetary policy to impact on the stock market and the residents' consumption behavior. In the country to the loose monetary policy, increase the money supply, stimulate consumption, make the residents have more good macroeconomic environment for stock investment. In loose under the guidance of macroeconomic policy and the stock market appears good posture, stock market wealth effect is able to fully manifests, makes residents due to harvest more interest in the stock market is willing to invest more funds, at the same time benefit groups and will pass this information to other consumers, make more consumers to become investors in the stock market. Residents' propensity to consume with the orientation of macroeconomic policies and change, this affects the stock market mainly by the macro policy of investment environment.
4. The relevant laws and regulations of JianQuanDu impact on consumer behavior
Relevant laws and regulations as to reflect the soundness of the developed degree of the stock market and the national concern, the stock market to protect the interests of residents, maintaining the safety of residents investment is of great significance, the residents of consumer behavior in the stock market has a direct impact. Found in the solving process, relevant laws and regulations of JianQuanDu influence on target layer were given a weighting of 5.37%. The results show that our country residents of consumer behavior in the stock market will be affected by the relevant laws and regulations. In 1998 our country issued "securities law", for the operation of the stock market played a role in specification. Before that, the state of the stock market regulatory gaps, the interests of the residents cannot fully guarantee, so the investors of the stock market is not much. In 2005, the original "securities law" was revised in our country, perfect the management aspects of the stock market, the investors about the rules in the market at a deeper level and all-round understanding, so as to make the Chinese stock market investors are increasing, the amount of investment also increases gradually.
In conclusion, it is the rule layer in the stock market, securities brokerage business specification degree, macroeconomic policy guidance, relevant laws and regulations JianQuanDu these four factors as the target layer of the study of Chinese stock market's influence on consumer behavior analysis of weight between the two relations.
(2)The results of solving the P C the criterion layer
The above analysis, have made it clear that the influence factors of residents' consumption behavior and information dissemination mechanism, and the inhabitants consumers according to the degree of investment into several categories. Stock market investment profit is established degree D = (t - h)/a model. T in the actual values of investment profit degree, h is investment reasonable range of caps, a is the average of the investment profit rate.
In the stock market information dissemination threshold for E. When D p E, investment in the stock market will spread to gain information. Speed depends on the lambda, and propagation velocity affected by consumer groups own easy degree of investment. By the analysis of the model, the consumer groups transformation relationship is as follows:
Willingness to invest in stocks lower than investors to invest in stocks will higher, he is ready to invest in stocks of investors - good by the stock market, investment to gain information, stock market investors, the stock market become saturated, in short supply, reduce profit opportunity - give up stock investment.
1. The investment stock investors intend to lower the L and willing to invest a high conversion between residents H
Investment will lower than investors is affected by other people invest in stocks to get news from profit, increase their willingness to invest in stocks is through the stock market is good news propagation, completed from the L group to the transformation of the H group. Set each investor in the stock market profits of news every day to influence of the number of investors to lambda (t) L, NH investor can make a day on average lambda (t) LNH a lower investors willing to invest the L H, for investors willing to invest a higher reason has:
N dL/dt = - lambda LNH, namely the dL/dt = - lambda LH
2. The investors willing to invest a higher R transformation between H and the stock market investors
The spread of the stock market investors invest in stocks will lead to earnings information will greatly affect the low investment of investors, and smaller amplitude of high investment of investors, which normally doesn't has the desire to invest group would be more influenced by stock market profit situation and change. Due to the spread of the news, the number of consumers of the stock market, stock market supply and demand gap, share price began to fluctuations, some investors will therefore out of the stock market. Therefore, are:
DH/dt = lambda LR - epsilon H (t)
Epsilon representatives to spread information by investors willing to invest a higher transmission rate.
3. And willing to invest in the stock market investors R higher conversion between the investors H
Per unit time the number of investors in the stock market to reduce the amount for stock investors to investment will higher than the number of investors, w on behalf of investors, dropout rates, reason has:
Dh/dt = wR
The above content is the reference of the behavioral finance theory, combined with the residents' consumption behavior is influenced by other investors profit level of psychological factors and the analysis of stock market information dissemination mechanism, a partial differential equation model is established and improved the previous rule layer factors in the hierarchical analysis model of partial defects, improve the stock market's influence on consumer behavior analysis of this problem.
Got in the process of solving scheme of criterion layer results are shown in table 2, the influence of that scheme of residents to invest in the stock fund proportion of household disposable income is affected by the four factors in the criterion layer.
See from the results, the residents invest, the greater the more vulnerable to the impact of stock market. When r value of only 5%, 5%, the residents' consumption behavior is influenced by the stock market weight only 6.18%, and when its r value of 45% - 55% of the long, this kind of consumption behavior of residents affected by the stock market change weight 41.85%, residents can say at this point in the consumer behavior of the stock market is mainly decided by the stock market.
Securities company's brokerage business, by contrast, the scope of standardization degree and solutions in the r almost no connection. Households in the value of r in different range of investors when deciding their consumption behavior, only 17.35% - 22.93% of the weight is affected by the factors. Can be understood as, securities brokerage standardization degree of residents to decide whether to invest in the stock market has a great influence, and little influence on the proportion of investment funds.
In contrast to the stock market impact, the residents money accounted for the proportion of household disposable income and macro economic policy in the opposite direction. Among them, the value of r is 5% - 15% of the consumption of small investors behavior affected by macroeconomic policies, and the value of r in 45% - 55% of households have only 6.05% of the weight is affected by the macro policies. Can be understood as, investment proportion is less small investors are using the stock market speculation, they will according to the orientation of macroeconomic policies to choose short-term speculative direction and goals, so the consumption behavior of the investors mainly depends on the policy guidance of the country's economy. The investment large amount of investors are mostly long-term stable investment in the stock market, the residents of long-term goal is to obtain funds income maximization, so rarely because short-term macroeconomic goal oriented to choose their own consumption object, but according to their investment market and the overall stock market trend to decision-making and their consumption behavior.
Relevant laws and regulations of JianQuanDu and macroeconomic policies affect the outcome of the plan layer, residents to invest in the stock market funds accounted for the proportion of household disposable income and related laws and regulations JianQuanDu into the opposite direction role relationship. Investment amount less families more considering the soundness of securities regulation, while investment larger proportion of residents' consumption behavior is only about 6.16% is affected by the degree of progress in related laws and regulations.
(3) the solution layer P and O the influence of the target layer #p#分页标题#e#
Chinese stock market's influence on consumer behavior mainly by four factors such as the stock market, and the result of the influence by residents to invest in the stock market funds accounted for the ratio of household disposable income. By establishing a hierarchy analysis model and the analysis of its results, can be summarized out of the stock market is the stock market influence consumer behavior the most important means, and all the changes in the stock market, through the wealth effect and herding effect caused by the mechanism of action on consumer behavior is the influence of the residents will according to the shape of the stock market to determine the amount of money to invest in the stock market the proportion of household disposable income, but the proportion of main distribution between 5% - 45%.
Hierarchical analysis model is improved
Stock market's influence on consumer behavior in China this problem, the hierarchical analysis model was established, the stock market is one of the most important of several factors on the influence of residents' consumption behavior. Exists but the analysis method of criterion layer selection of several factors of subjectivity, only considered the four factors such as stock market impact on the residents' consumption behavior of the defect, and residents' consumption behavior in reality has universality and complexity, summed up in the above several factors the influence of the stock market exists partial defect. In the process of model improvement, through the establishment of a partial differential equation model, the reference of the behavioral finance theory, the increase of residents' consumer psychological factors analysis and transmission mechanism of stock market information content to overcome the one-sidedness of the hierarchical analysis model.
Conclusion
Based on the stock market on the level of the consumer behavior analysis model is established and the partial differential equation model, on the basis of combining the theory of behavioral finance, the stock market is obtained through the stock market, macroeconomic policy guidance, the degree of securities brokerage business norms, regulations JianQuanDu on residents' consumption behavior, the stock market is the most important factors, the influence of other factors to some extent, and by determining its investment in the stock market funds accounted for the proportion of household disposable income to achieve the conclusion of the impact. At the same time, to see whether people invest in stock profits depends on the stock market for relevant information. Through the influence of stock market information dissemination mechanism, our country present a constant state of mutual transformation between people and people.
The author thinks that, our country residents should pay attention to the following: when investing in stocks, pay attention to the stock market to new information. The stock market should be the most important factor of consumer behavior, residents can from Shanghai stock index and other indicators to judge feasibility of investment. Second, the spread of the residents to other information about the stock market should be paid attention to when the trade-off. The investment behavior of residents in our country mainly influenced by other residents investment behavior, but this kind of information can be misleading sometimes, people should be careful to use. In conclusion for this paper, according to the research conclusion of the proposed policy recommendations.
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