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概要
安全分析是创造既合理有又盈利的投资基础，股份价格是分析师安全分析的第一步。本报告将讲述摘选的四种股份价格趋势并调查影响价格趋势的因素。对于以后的股份价格的适当评估也要对股份额的利息与风险进行分析。为了对经济行业有个更好的了解，应该研究一下澳大利亚的利率趋势和交换利率的抉择。 1前言 先对选择好的四个公司进行安全分析。它们都是世界上的大企业，其中澳洲航空公司是一家总部位于澳大利亚的的航空公司，必和必拓公司是澳大利亚的的自然资源公司。甲骨文公司（oracle)是美国的软件公司，美国石油公司是一家国际石油和天然气公司。可以概括出美国30天和90天的利率。检测出澳元与美元和人民币的兑换率。可选择2-3年的政府债卷进行债卷分析。 Executive Summary Security analysis is the fundamental for creating a reasonable and profitable investment portfolio. And share price analysis is the first step of security analysis. This report will describe the price trend of four selected shares and investigate the factors impacting the price trend. The dividend and risk of the shares will be analyzed for proper estimate of the future share price. Trend and determination of the Interest rates and exchange rates of Australia will be researched for a better understanding of the economic environment.
1. Introduction
Four companies are selected for the security analysis. They are all giant enterprises in the world. Among them , Qantas Airways Limited (Qantas) is an airline company based in Australia, and BHP Billiton plc(BHP) is an Australian natural resources company. Oracle Corporation (Oracle) is an American enterprise software company. BP p.l.c. (BP) is an international oil and gas company. Australian interest rates of 30 days and 90 days will be described. Exchange rate of the Australian dollar to the US dollar and Chinese RMB will be checked. For the bonds analysis , government bonds of 2 years and 3 years are selected.
2. Security analysis
2.1 Price & dividend
Figure 1-4 shows the price trend of the four companies.
Figure1: price trend of Qantas from 2005 to 2010
Figure 2: price trend of BHP since 2005
For the two Australian companies, their share price trend has shown significant difference compared with the index of S&P/ASX 200. The share price of Qantas has fluctuated nearly the same with the index of S&P/ASX 200 since 2005, which means that the share performance of Qantas is close to the average level of the Australian stock market. On the contrary, the stock price of BHP has grown more quickly than the index of S&P/ASX 200, fluctuating between 50% and 150% in the last three years.
Figure3: price trend of Oracle between 2005 and 2010
Figure 4: price trend of BP since2005
The stock price of Oracle, like that of BHP, has risen steadily since 2005. And it went up more quickly than the index of Nasdaq. It has increased by 123.5% while the index of Nasdaq only 25.05%. BP has seen its share price exceeds the index of FTSE100 from mid-2006 to the third quarter of 2008 and then its share price fluctuated nearly the same with the index.
Figure 5 shows dividends per share of the four companies from 2005 to 2009.
 Source: Cited form Annual Report of Qantas, 2010,BHP,2010,Oracle,2010,BP,2010
Yakov Amihud& Maurizio Murgia(1997) pointed out that dividend is informative. Martin Feldstein & Jerry Green(1983) said that dividend was often desired by small investors. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler (2004) had indicated that paying dividend would cater to investors. The dividends per share of the four companies differ considerably. Qantas doubled the dividend paid in 2007. But it reduced the dividend by about 70% in 2009. BHP , on the contrary, increased its dividend by 17.1 % to 82 cents per share. Oracle, as a young high-tech company, has s strong demand for capital and we can understand why it never distributed dividends in the past four years. BP managed to increase its share dividends slightly in 2009.
2.2 Influential factors
The growth rate of Qantas has been slower since the beginning of 2008. The stock price decrease is partly ascribed to the financial crisis, of which negative influence has been shown in the financial report.
Figure 6 shows key profitability data of Qantas from 2007 to 2009.
Source: Calculated Based on Annual Report of Qantas, 2010
From the above table we can see that profitability of Qantas declined significantly in 2009. Operating margin was 14.14% in 2009 while it was 19.13% in 2007 and 20.50% in 2008. Besides, EBIT and net profit decreased much in 2009 and the net profit margin of Qantas was only 0.85%. The weak performance of 2009 was because of the loss of associates and jointly controlled entities and the large decrease in finance income.
BHP belongs to those “valuable and safe” stocks. It keeps a growing rate of more than 50% even in the background of the financial crisis. The excellent performance of BHP firstly comes from its monopoly position in natural resource especially iron ore. It is one of the three biggest iron ore merchants in the world, and they nearly control the price and supply of iron ore, which is the raw material of iron industry. The company made the best use of high-quality governance to deal with the crisis.
Oracle is the largest enterprise software company in the world and its exceptional performance comes from its increase in the market share of New Software Licenses and Database and Middleware Software. According to the annual report, the revenue of Oracle increased by 822 million dollars in 2009 and net profit increased by 72 million dollars. In recent years, Oracle has invested billions of dollars to acquire a number of complementary companies to consolidate its status in the software industry.
Owing to the decline of oil price, the operation results of BP in 2009 was not satisfied. Total revenue decreased by 33% and net profit went down by 23%. The revenue of the business segment of Exploration and Production decreased from 86170 million dollars to 57626 million dollars and the turnover of Refining and Marketing decreased from 320,039 to 213,050 million dollars.
2.3 Risk distribution
Security risk can be divided into systematic risk and unsystematic risk. Systematic Risk is the possibility of loss to all the investors resulting from interest rates, exchange rates, macroeconomic policies, and business cycles or other political factors like war. Unsystematic risk is resulted from the specific factors of the company itself and influences the price of a single company. It is in the form of financial risk, operation risk, liquidity risk, credit risk and so on.
Since September of 2009, the Reserve Bank of Australia has increased the interest rate five times, which means the financial risk of the company with a high debt ratio will be increased. The net debt of Qantas increased from 1,392 million dollars by 38.15% to 1923 million dollars in 2009. But the cash from operating activities has reduced by 52% in the past three years, which was only 1129 million dollars in 2009 and the cash flow could not cover the net debt. It means that the financial risk and credit risk of Qantas was larger, and the reduction in operating margin also implies that the operation risk is expanded.
BHP has a commercial bribery scandal in China and the demand reduction in China may have a very negative impact on its future performance because China now has contributed to 19.1% of its revenues. Besides, as a multinational company, BHP has many business segments in other countries, which can be negatively impacted by the local government policies. What’s more, BHP may suffer risk in its organizational forms, because it expands through acquisition and integrating the acquired companies may not be so easy.
Oracle , like the other American companies, is influenced by the effects of the current recession. In addition, the operation results of Oracle will be influenced by the currency exchange rate fluctuations. Oracle can suffer acquisition risk, too.
The operation of BP has been adversely influenced by the reduction of oil price but now the price and demand of crude oil is recovering. Thus the operation risk of BP is reducing. For the financial risk, the Debt to debt-plus-equity ratio decreased by 2%, and the cash increased by 141 million dollars in 2009.
2.4 Future expectations
The share price of Qantas is not so satisfying for a long time. It reduced its dividend paid by 69.19% in 2009, which is a sign for cash shortage and may future influence the stock price. BHP, with the other two iron ore producers, has decided to increase the price of iron ore by 50%. If this comes about, then the revenue of BHP will be largely increased and stock price should rise rapidly. Oracle Corporation has decided to charge the American customers of Microsoft office system for the ODF installed in the system. The fee is 90 dollars per customer. That will increase the revenue of Oracle and may cause stock price going up. BP now still struggles in the financial crisis while its competitors, Exxon Mobil has gradually got rid of the impact of the crisis. BP has decided to adopt strategies like layoffs, cost reduction to adapt to the changing environment. But the effectiveness of these strategies is not obvious now. And the stock price of BP will not increase too much recently.#p#分页标题#e#
2.5 The interest rates
Figure 7 shows the trend of season cash rate of 30 days and 90 days in the past five years.
30days 90days
The interest rates of Australia reached the top in 2008 and promptly decreased. The fourth quarter of 2008 is the knee point of the interest rates. And the reverse bank has increased the interest rates gradually since the third quarter of 2009.
The interest rate is determined by liquidity, income and the inflation. When the market is of liquidity abuse, people borrow too much money for investment. And then the cost of borrowing money, interest rate, will be increased. When the market is of liquidity shortage, people have to reduce spending on the investment and interest rate can be reduced. IS-LM model is a classical theory put forward by Hicks in 1973, which is to research the income effect of interest rates. The real interest rate is a key intertemporal relative price, which increases when there is greater expected growth in real activity and falls when the economy slows.(RobertG. King,2000) Marvin Goodfriend(1993) researched the relationship between inflation and interest rates, and he found that interest rates could help reduce the inflation effects and then reduce itself ,too.
2.6 exchange rate
Figure 8 shows the trend of season exchange rate of the Australian Dollar to the US dollar and RMB in the past five years.
US dollar Renmingbi
-rates/2007-2009.xls
The influential factors of the exchange rate consist of BOP, inflation, trade factors, interest rate, exchange market expectations and reserve bank intervention. For the long term ,the price level will also impact the exchange rate. Edward (1989) organizes vast amounts of data on exchange rates - both real and nominal - and discusses their relationship with net trade balances, net asset positions, output growth, real wages, and rates of price inflation. The exchange rate movements, to a large extent, depend on a common set of international economic variables(Tim Bollersley,1990) Compared with the above table ,we may make a conclusion that when the interest rate decrease , the exchange rate decreases ,too. That is shown in the trend of the exchange rate from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the mid-2009.
2.7 Bonds
Figure 9 shows the market yields of trend of Australian government bonds of 2 years and 3 years from 2006 and 2010.
2 years 3 years
3. Conclusion
The four shares have shown significant difference in the price. The financial risk and operation risk of Qantas was increased in 2009 and the growth rate of its share price is still negative. There is no obvious signs that performance of Qantas will be largely improved this year. BHP, by contraries, is increasing steadily and BHP has strong profitability because of its status in the industry. Oracle has an exceptional performance. But this high-tech company may not be used to distribute dividends. BP has adopted strategies to improve its performance but its future development should be further researched. So far, this oil company can just catch up with the average level of the 100 largest companies in the British stock market.
4. Recommendations
We use invest portfolio to disperse the unsystematic risk of the stock, and Meir Statman(1987)concluded that the risk of a stock portfolio depends on the proportions of the individual stocks. That means that our invest portfolio should include those stocks with smaller risk and steady yields. Thus the share of Qantas should be excluded at first. BHP is an ideal choice from any aspect. Oracle can also be concerned for its growth and profit potential. As for BP , my suggestion is wait until there is good news of its profitability.
References
Qantas, 2010, Qantas Data Book 2008/09 ,
BHP , 2010 , annual Report2009 ,
Oracle, 2010, 10k-200,
BP, 2010, FOI_2005_2009 _full_ book ,
Hicks, John R. (1973)’Mr. Keynes and the Classics: A Suggested Interpretation’.
Econometrica, vol. 7, no.1, pp. 147–59.
Robert G. King(2000)’ The New IS-LM Model:Language, Logic, and Limits’
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly. Vol. 86, no.3 ,pp.45-103
Marvin Goodfriend(1993)’ Interest rate policy and the inflation scare problem: 1979-1992’ Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly Vol.79, no.1,pp.1-23
Sebastian Edward(1989) Real Exchange Rates, Devaluation, and Adjustment.
MA: MIT press
Tim Bollerslev (1990) ‘Modelling the Coherence in Short-Run Nominal Exchange
Rates: A Multivariate Generalized Arch Model ‘. The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 72, No. 3, pp. 498-505
Yakov Amihud & Maurizio Murgia(1997) Dividends, Taxes, and Signaling: Evidence from Germany. The Journal of Finance 52,(1) 397-408
Martin Feldstein & Jerry Green (1983) Why Do Companies Pay Dividends?
The American Economic Review 73,(1) 17-30
Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler (2004) A Catering Theory of Dividends
The Journal of Finance 59,(3) 1125-1165
Meir Statman (1987) ‘How Many Stocks Make a Diversified Portfolio? ‘ The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 22, No. 3, pp. 353-363
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