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导读：数量经济学assignment不会写？这篇文章是初级数量经济学这节课的 (Intro to Econometrics) 教材，是 Damodar N. GUjarati的 "basic econometrics"。本研究的目的是根据中国网购者的电子信任水平对其进行细分。根据调查结果，本研究将为电子企业和政府提升网上购物者在中国的电子信任度提供一些有益的建议。
Abstract摘要
B2C电子商务在中国目前的繁荣阶段并不像预期的那样。消费者信任缺失被认为是制约我国B2C电子商务进一步发展的主要障碍。本研究以网购者的网购体验和收入为基础，探讨网购者不同的电子信任水平。这项研究证明，中国网购者的高信任水平更有可能具有更高的购买力。根据中国消费者的需求，为电子商务公司提出最有效的营销策略，以吸引和推广他们的第一次网上购物体验。此外，中国中产阶级已被证明是主要的网上购物。能够获得信任的电子公司最终将获得更大的利润空间。
B2C e-commerce in China is not as expected in the current stage of prosperity. The lack of consumer trust is considered to be the main obstacle to the further development of B2C e-commerce development in China. This study section online shoppers different e - trust level based on their online shopping experience and income. This study proved that online shoppers e - high trust level of China is more likely to have higher purchasing power. Suggest the most effective marketing strategy for a e-commerce company, according to Chinese shoppers to attract and promote their first online shopping experience. Further, the Chinese middle class has proven to be the main online purchase. E - Firms who can gain their trust will ultimately more profitable network space.
Introduction介绍
中国电子商务市场自20世纪末问世以来，取得了长足的发展。令人惊讶的是，在2010年之前，中国的经济并不像人们预期的那样繁荣。从图1可以清楚地看出，2010年中国在线业务增长的总交易量相对缓慢；但从2014年的2010年开始，这一增长量大幅增加。根据《中国电子商务年鉴》（2005），2005年电子商务总贸易额约为6500亿元人民币，约813亿美元。许多研究表明，消费者信心不足可能是阻碍电子商务进一步发展的主要障碍（Ba、Whinston和Zhang，2003年），虽然2014年的贸易总额已达到13.4万亿元人民币，但笔者发现，为什么开始几年的缓慢增长缓慢令人感兴趣。这可能是维护和探索我国当前电子商务繁荣市场的关键。2013年末，中国电子商务市场规模达到10.2万亿元，比2012年增长8.5万亿元，增长29.9%，电子商务各细分市场中，2013年B2B电子商务占80.4%，交易额达到8.2万亿元，增长31.2%。网络零售贸易规模占市场份额17.6%，交易规模18851亿元，增长42.8%（中国电子商务研究中心，2015年）。
Since its debut around the end of the 20th century, the e-commerce market in China has made considerable progress. Surprisingly, it is not as prosperous as it is expected at the beginning years, namely, before 2010. From Figure 1, it is clear that China's total transaction volume of online business growth was relatively slow in 2010; however, from 2010 in 2014, it has dramatically increased. According to the China Electronic Commerce Yearbook (2005), e-commerce in 2005 the total trade volume is about 650 billion RMB, about 81.3 billion US dollars. Many studies have shown that lacking of consumer confidence can be a major obstacle to further progress in e-commerce and development (Ba, Whinston, & Zhang, 2003).Though the total trade volume of 2014 has reached as much as 13.4 trillion RMB, the author finds the reason that why the beginning years of slow growth slow interesting. Since it could be the key to maintain and explore the current e-commerce prosperousness market of China. In the end of year 2013, Chinese e-commerce market scale reached 10.2 trillion, 8.5 trillion up comparing to 2012, which achieves an increase of 29.9%.Among the various segments of the e-commerce industry, in the year of 2013, B2B e-commerce accounted for 80.4%, trading volume achieves as much as 8.2 trillion RMB, makes an increase of 31.2%. The size of the online retail trade accounted for 17.6 percent market share, deal size reached 1.8851 trillion RMB, makes an increase of 42.8% (Chinese e-commerce research center, 2015).
In China, it is generally considered a low-trust society, which may be one of the major reasonsthatalmost 41.5 percent of Internet users who are not on buying on the Internet since 2007. Some research shows that if a netizen is to buy online from a vendor he or she never buys before, is basically out of trust. In this context, China's Internet users not willing to purchase online is due to general low confidence of online vendors. Therefore, e-trust is considered as one of the most important prerequisites for successful e-commerce (McKnight, Choudhury, &Kacmar, 2002). Online trading and exchange relations are not only characterized by uncertainty, but also on condition of anonymity, lack of control and opportunism, so that trust is one of the most important risks and a key factors in e-commerce (Tan, Tyler &Manica, 2007). Online transactions often do not involve the exchange of goods and money at the same time, because time and space separate exchange between partners are common. When a customer chooses to trust the online store, he or she may then continue to provide personal information, buy products, and use through a national, and even service providers in other countries in different regions, with a limit of history.However, he or she is very limited to know the prior transactions of the vendor.
Therefore, due to e-trust for online shoppers is essential to the success of e-commerce, it is crucial to study what factors influence the degree of customers’ e-trust, and furthermore, how they influence the online purchasing power. In order to reveal these factors, this paper will focus on examining two aspects of online shoppers’ key characteristics; income and online purchasing experience, and reveal their connections with e-trust level of online shoppers. Meanwhile, this paper will also examine the influence of e-trust on online shoppers’ purchasing power. Though the total trade volume of 2014 has reached as much as 13.4 trillion RMB, the author finds the reason that why the beginning years of slow growth and slow interesting. Since it could be the key to maintain and explore the current e-commerce prosperousness market of China. Therefore, this paper will focus on the e-trust study of the Chinese e-commerce market.
Literature review
In general, studies have been done in different categoriesof trust in e-commerce, but generally fall into other areas of technology, social and economic systems, as well as psychology (Chuan, Yen, & Tarn, 2007).
In technical terms, the trust is usually security-related. This is a reasonable observation. People tend to seek assistance network security technology disciplines to deal with more and more frequent e-commerce fraud. Some security technology to prevent trading fraud by a number of research and study before adoption in cyberspace (Andress, 2000). Confidentiality build trust in online transactions is the most important, but the development of electronic commerce in the face of the most challenging problems. Why is trust so important? Multi-million dollar deal and highly sensitive company files travel over public networks. Some companies allow business partners or customers to access information directly from their internal applications use the network as infrastructure. The sensitivity of these communications makes to ensure the authenticity, integrity and confidentiality of transactions is extremely important. Restrictions trust object of these studies, in cyberspace networking technologies, including hardware and software, which make up the Internet. From a technical standpoint trust in cyberspace, but there are also paid some attention to the associated economic and political issues. The same study also showed protection recommendations and other aspects of the evolving public telephone network and the Internet, to meet the urgent needs of the software, which will improve the credibility and contribute to social and economic factors trusted technology deployment. Stability of the site, information download speed, web design and advanced technology use, are considered to build consumer confidence in the effectiveness of e-commerce. In addition, Bauer et al. (2002) reached a similar conclusion. On the other hand, sociologists, economists and psychologists have found that many factors, such as agencies, third party, ability, familiarity and income will affect the amount of trust people place e-commerce.
Modern social and economic system built on trust related matters of important foundation. One example is the trust revision, such as the Contractor formal control mechanisms deficiency (NOOTEBOOM, BERGER, & NOORDERHAVEN, 1997). As a bottom line, the law will undoubtedly play a key confidence-building protection. Current e-commerce-related legal system cannot meet the online transaction protection, especially protection of privacy, which is widely considered to be one of the most important factors for building trust in e-commerce requirements. The presence of a third party can make the two parties to the transaction involved in mutual trust. In e-commerce, third parties can serve as a more prominent role, because the two parties involved cannot do face-to-face transaction.
Online shoppers can learn from past Internet provider's ability online shopping experience. Capacity is considered to be a trusted source one (Urban, Sultan & Qualls,2000). Consumers must almost exclusively on the basis of trust, so that these and many other online research and purchasing decisions. However, most of the website to provide consumers with confidence on the basis of its lack of information. Some online retailers start with little or no performance record. Some may be shaky financial basis, and cannot meet their service and delivery guarantees. Some secretly collect data on each client's Web activity, and then sell that information third-party marketing companies. Like AOL or even highly respected companies have suffered embarrassing security breaches, and auction sites such as eBay has been reviewing its failure to effectively police egoism "Customer Review" published sellers and their friends. It is no exaggeration to say, as consumers increasingly mature on Internet, trusted Web site will be the key difference that will determine many of the retail network's success or failure. Now, customers can use the price of the robot, such as DealTime.com, which shows the best prices for all products purchased full information on the Internet. A community sites like Deja.com may form consumers, it offers advice on consumer products ratings ways to exchange. Industrial buyers can use the site to cooperate, as VerticalNet.com. Consumers also can from vertical sites such as iVillage.com, providing specialized information for women peer input.#p#分页标题#e#
The Trust Fund will soon become the Internet currency. One need only read the daily Business News - full of security failures, to achieve the abuse scandal stories and customer information - the knowledge that trust, or lack of it, has become a problem, pay attention to the needs of senior managers. Want to do business in the online world by companies must learn to provide credible information, advice and services to communicate and sell their products and services. Consumers and suppliers will enter the exchange of information on the basis of trust and lasting relationships. They will give their loyalty, if they expect to be met. In addition, they will have to pay higher prices to their trust in the company. The real profits earned in the rough and chaotic world of Internet marketing company will sell the Trust generator can provide the best value in a full, fair, competitive product comparisons.
Therefore, this study focuses on Chinese Internet companies consumers trust the causes and consequences. This led to the author's research interests in the trust level will E- online shoppers research what kind of psychological impact, especially for the key attributes of online shoppers; that is, a shopper's online shopping experience, he or she income. Nevertheless, I do not oppose the importance of other factors, as discussed above, but that the psychological point of view can be explained by the Chinese consumer confidence in online shopping, because it focuses on the transaction.
There are three questions against effectiveness of customers online purchase power.
Question 1: Does the online purchasing experience of a shopper in China have an effect on his or her e-trust level?
Question 2: Does the income of an online shopper in China have an effect on his or her e-trust level? – Question 3: Does the e-trust level of an online shopper in China have an effect on his or her purchasing power?
In order to answer the three questions, four hypotheses are proposed as following.
H1: Those who have online purchasing experiences have a higher e-trust level than those who do not have. –
H2: Those who have more online purchasing experiences have a higher e-trust level than those who have less experience in online purchasing. –
H3: Those who have a high income (>3000 RMB/month) have a higher e-trust level than those who have a low income
H4: Those who have a higher e-trust level will pay more (buy more products or buy more expensive goods) in online purchasing.
Research methodology
Quantitative research is explained through the numerical data collection, analysis of the use based on mathematical method (particularly statistics). In the quantitative study, we collect numerical data. This is closely linked to the last part of the definition: based on the mathematical analysis method is used. In order to be able to use mathematical methods as the foundation, we must be in the form of digital data. This is not a qualitative research. Qualitative data is not necessarily or numerical normally, so can't through the use of statistical analysis. Therefore, as a quantitative study is essentially to collect numerical data to explain a particular phenomenon, seems to be immediately answer specific questions using quantitative methods.
Hypothesis is a preliminary explanation, accounting for a set of facts that can be further investigated. For example, we may want to test one hypothesis is that poverty causes low achievement, or there is a student of the relationship between self-esteem and their time spent on watching TV. Quantitative research design, enables us to test these hypotheses. We will collect the relevant data (for example, parents' income and academic performance), and use of statistical techniques to decide whether to reject or accept this hypothesis for the time being. Accept a hypothesis is always temporary; New data may appear to reject it.
When we collect the data of quantitative education research, we must collect someone or something. People or things, such as school) we collect data or from called units or cases. We are collecting the data from these units are called variables. Any characteristics of the variable unit we are interested in and want to collect (such as gender, age, self-esteem). Label "variable" refers to the fact that data are different between these units. Result will be the students and schools, for example, the difference between the different genders, between students and so on. If there is no unit between the difference, we are going to study, we may not be able to do any interesting research (for example, research students whether humans won't produce interesting findings).
To test the above hypotheses, a survey was conductedfor this study. Based on the research model, questionnaires containing the measurements of a shopper areonline purchasing experience, income; purchasingpower and e-trust level were developed. All samplescollected were from Internet users. They eithershowed their interest in online shopping or prior onlinepurchasing experience. Because Internet users arewidely dispersed in China, this study used a quota samplingmethod defined by CNNIC (China Network InformationCenter)(http://www.cnnic.org) rather thanthe random sampling approach. 400 surveys weremailed out, and 224 completed and valid ones were returned.When all the data was collected, a reliabilitytest was conducted. The validity of the data was shownbecause the value of Cronbach α for all variables werelarger than 0.7 (the least coefficient is 0.7711, thelargest is 0.8058).
T is used to test the average population of the two population by comparison to standards or if you don't know the population standard deviation, when you have a limited sample (n < 30), and
A group of variance is used to compare two populations. Sample can be any size. It is the basis of analysis of variance.
In short, a general linear group for testing, and used for a simple linear test. When you have a complicated model, you can test your empty group and alternative hypothesis. If you have a simple linear model, then F - statistic will be exactly the same t statistic square (hence the group, and the t equivalent).
Usually use t test method of the difference between the two groups. In one experiment, for example, you can compare the overall control of the average group and control group.
However, if you have more than two groups, you should not only use multiple t error increases (see familywise error), so you increase your chances of finding an impact, it is not a (type I error). So when you have more than two groups of comparisons such as drug testing high dose, and low and the placebo group (group 3), using analysis of variance to check whether you have any group differences.
Check whether there are differences between the groups can use f value, it will substantially measure to improve the group means fitting model and the total average score for all participants and compare the residual error model, this is the difference between the actual scores and their respective groups. Therefore, a swarm system variance ratio: the systemic differences, so the higher the score, the better.
A little beyond your problem, an analysis of variance only tells you that there are differences between your groups, not theirs. So you will use a priori contrast test group or causal hypothesis test to check for the differences.
Data analysis
4.1. Findings related to Hypothesis 1
224 respondents were divided into two groups accordingto whether they have or have not had prioronline purchasing experience. Further, the variable“trust” was used to represent their e-trust level (i.e.,trust = 1 means the lowest e-trust level, and trust =4 means the highest e-trust level). An Independent-Samples T Test was performed and the result is significant(sig. = 0 < 0.05). Hence, it indicates thatthe e-trust levels between group 1 (those who have noonline purchasing experience) and group 2 (those whohave online purchasing experience) are significantlydifferent. Since the average e-trust level (2.91) of group2 is higher than that of group 1 (2.22), hypothesis one,which states that “those who have online purchasingexperiences have a higher e-trust level than those whodo not have”, should not be rejected.
4.2. Findings related to Hypothesis 2
In this test, all 224 respondents were divided intofive groups according to their online purchase times.
The five groups included the following types: times =1 (never purchased online), times = 2 (average lessthan once per two months), times = 3 (average lessthan once per month), times = 4 (average less thantwice per month), times = 5 (average more than twiceper month). First, the One-Way ANOVA was appliedto test whether or not there was a significant differencebetween at least two groups. Then, Post Hoc Tests wereperformed to find which groups were significantly differentfrom the others.
In ANOVA, F is significant (sig. = 0 < 0.05),which means that there is a significant difference betweenat least two groups. It is interesting to note thatthe e-trust levels of Groups 2, 3, 4, 5 were significantlydifferent from that of Group 1, but there wereno significant differences between Groups 2, 3, 4, 5.This finding means H2 should be rejected. It can beexplained that there is a trust threshold between thosewho have online purchasing experience and those whodo not have similar experiences. Since the e-trust levelis higher than the threshold, there will, consequently,be no significant difference. The research by Tan andThoen [36] also concluded that a trust threshold exists.
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4.3. Findings related to Hypothesis 3
Grouping the respondents who have an income lessthan 2000 RMB per month in Group 1, and the respondentswho have an income more than 3000 RMBper month in Group 2, this study can analyze the findingsrelated to Hypothesis 3. An Independent-SamplesT Test was then performed. The result showed that asignificant difference between the e-trust levels of thetwo groups (sig. = 0.037 < 0.05) exists. Therefore,the e-trust levels between Group 1 and Group 2 are significantlydifferent. Because the average e-trust level(2.69) of Group 2 is higher than that of Group 1, H3 or“those who have a high income (>3000 RMB/month)have a higher e-trust level than those who have a lowincome (<2000 RMB/month)”, is supported.
4.4. Findings related to Hypothesis 4
In this test, all 224 respondents were divided intotwo groups according to their e-trust level – the lowertrust level group (trust_1 = 0) and the higher trustlevel group (trust_1). The variable “pay” was used torepresent a shopper’s purchasing power; i.e., (pay = 1means their purchasing power is less than 100 RMB inone online purchase, pay = 2 means their purchasingpower is between 101 to 200 RMB in one online purchase,pay = 3 means their purchasing power is between201 to 300 RMB in one online purchase, pay =4 means their purchasing power is between 301 to 400RMB in one online purchase, pay = 5 means their purchasingpower is more than 400 RMB in one onlinepurchase). Similarly, another Independent-Samples TTest was performed to test this hypothesis. The resultshows that there is a significant difference betweenthe purchasing powers of the two groups. Hence, thepurchasing power between Group 1 and Group 2 aresignificantly different. Because the average purchasingpower level (2.97) of Group 2 is higher than that ofGroup 1 (1.92), H4 or “those who have a higher e-trustlevel will pay more (buy more products or buy moreexpensive goods) in online purchasing”, should not berejected.
Case study
Similarly, Google complaints that China is decided toundermine its network services,the charge as before, the world’s largest Internet search engine does not provide a reliable evidence to support its statement.
Update on Wednesday in a blog post, Google said the secret activities originated in China targeted some users of Gmail, its E-mail service, designed to steal passwords and monitor email accounts.
This is the second time, Google China any finger at him. Last year, Google falsely accused the Chinese government supports hacking attacks, forcing China to give up the laws and regulations on the Internet by threatening to withdraw from the Chinese market.
Utopian complaints Google has become the obstacle in cyberspace to promote global trust between stakeholders.
No one will doubt that Google's dominant role on the Internet. Founded in 1998, Google more than 1 million web server running data centers around the world, and deal with more than 1 billion online search requests.
However, it is for the online giant is imprudent lashed out at others without reliable evidence to support it.
Last year, Google has invited the national security agency (NSA), a spy agency, help its investigation network attack, even if the cooperation is considered to be a serious threat to net neutrality.
And unidentified American security investigators said, their track attacker computer of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and landing vocational school in China, according to the New York Times.Report to many Chinese at that time the landing vocational school training chefs have enjoyed a high reputation in the local restaurants.
But the investigators believe that the school has the ability to stage, network attack, let the world search engine is affected. It's really hard to understand common sense of people.
In addition, it is not suitable for Google, profits, first, the Internet as a judge.
Google is not always following the business ethics. , US media reported in mid-May, Google didn't vigilant policing pharmaceutical advertising online, because they are so profitable. As a result, the Internet search giant distributed online advertising from illegal drugstore.In fact, individual criminals, not countries, is the main treatment of network security, some experts say the United States.
China, the United States and many other countries are the victims of hackers. In China, for example, about 60% of Internet users in the first half of 2010 experienced hacker attacks. More than 30% of Chinese Internet network account or password stolen.Urgent need for global cooperation is to ensure the security of the network.This is a real pity, Google's baseless complain of pain and mutual trust, efforts to build new global governance in cyberspace, let real cyber criminals to obtain illegal profits without being punished.
After allegations, German chancellor Angela Merkel (Angela Merkel) phone hacking, MS Kroes said clearly, believe now unaccounted for.
In CeBIT technology trade fair in Hanover, MS Kores said the future of the Internet is built on trust.
"Trust will not be taken for granted," she said.
MsKroes, who is in charge of the European Commission (European appointed the digital agenda, is to give the audience the speech including chancellor Angela marcel and prime minister David Cameron (David Cameron).
"The Internet of the next stage will be data and connectivity - driven. Cloud computing, big data, Internet of things; tools support manufacturing, education, energy, automobile and more. The Internet is no longer about E-mail.
"Make" skip "this new world, reliability and trust is the premise. But when the prime minister's phone is not sacred, that trust will not be taken for granted. Not only that, obviously, for millions of Germans, and billions around the world, believe that now is gone," she said.
Refers to Angela marcel called for the European communication network security, MS Kores said, need to change the thinking mode, whether need to strengthen the protection work.
European citizens should have the right to determine their data, she said.
The European Commission (European appointed has proposed in a data protection directive, need to enterprise and the government is responsible for the data, she explained.
If the country is "seriously protect yourself", then the data responsibility voluntary approach is "not enough,", she warned.Some member countries, including Britain, said concerns about the commission's data protection plan, it may affect the management of the business for more.MsKroes said that the next few months the key to this instruction, she will try to finish it this year.
She also said that us intelligence leaked information Edward snow, the informant was a "wake-up call", people should not be "nap".
But it should not let people take their technology, she said. On the contrary, to protect Internet users "slogan" is the key to improve the future network security.
Vow’s chief executive, also held in this weekend, and called for the automobile manufacturers, to ensure that the connected car - those connected to the Internet, don't be a "monster" data.
"Obviously I promised big data, more secure and convenient, but without paternalism and big brother. At this point, the industry requirement is meet. We need a voluntary commitment of the auto industry."
Conclusion and future research
The objective of this research is to segment onlineshoppers in China based on their e-trust levels. Accordingto the findings, this study will provide someuseful suggestions for e-enterprises and government toimprove online shopper’s e-trust in China.In this study, the authors found that 41.5% of ChineseInternet users did not have online purchasing experience.According to the finding obtained in Hypothesis1, these respondents had a relatively low e-trustlevel. If they can be attracted or promotion for the first time shopping online rather than on the Internet, they will tend to e - trust, a higher level. In other words, it is suggested that the most effective marketing strategy in the Chinese e-commerce company's target customers is to promote and to attract and persuade consumers to buy their first online. However, it is important to understand that the customer may not want to a wide range of selection and choice and diversity and endless options, they just want what they want. In this sense, the first online shopping experience is becoming more important. Further, e - trust higher level, these customers will be more willing to buy and spend more money on the Internet to find the hypothesis 4. Despite the assumption 2 is rejected, the authors believe that encouraged to buy more improve e - the importance of trust level. The author points out that there is a threshold e - consumers trust level. Encourage consumers to buy more did help to keep this trust threshold. According to the findings obtained from test hypothesis 3, those with higher incomes tend to e - trust, a higher level. High income people (> 3000 yuan/month) usually belong to the young and professional organizations in China, are often receiving higher education or university degree. They are clearly in the middle class of China. E - firms can gain their trust will ultimately more profitable in cyberspace.
A limitation of this study is that the survey was performedin the Shanghai area, one of the biggest andmost developed cities in China. Indeed, other major areassuch as Beijing, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsuare very similar to Shanghai. According to the statisticspublished by the China Network Information Center,these mentioned areas house about half of the total#p#分页标题#e#
Internet users in China Therefore, the data collected inthis study is assumed to represent and characterize themajority of Chinese Internet users.Finally, there are two future research studies areplanned. First, the authors will conduct a comparisonstudy to observe the e-trust levels and financial performanceof an e-commerce enterprise before and aftercertain actions that were uncovered in this study aretaken. This extended study will help test out whetheror not there will be a significant difference between theconsumers’ e-trust levels before and after making someimprovement efforts according to the findings obtainedfrom this study, and whether or not a higher e-trustlevel can bring a better financial performance. In anotherongoing research, the authors plan to conduct acomparative study between China and the US in termsof the factors affecting online shopper’s e-trust. It is assumedthat because the cultural and managerial differences, consumers’ e-trust in different countries are alsoaffected by different factors to some extent.
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