1. Treatment of the EIA data
EIA的数据处理
Our marine fuel inventory uses a modified 1996 EIA bunkers data set [EIA, 1999], based on the following assumptions and modifications:
我们的船用燃料油库存使用修改后的1996年环境影响评估掩体数据集[EIA,1999年,基于以下假设和修改:
The United States bunker sales reported by EIA include international aviation, and is reduced according to the United States 1996 sales reported by Foreign Trade Division of the U.S.
Department of Commerce’s Bureau of the Census [EPA, 1999], i.e.:
美国燃油销售额由环境影响评估报告,包括国际航空,减去根据美国1996年的销售报告由美国外贸部,工商局政府环保局,1999年,即:
• Residual = 12.5 Mton
• Distillate = 1.6 Mton
The Russian bunker sales reported by EIA are too high (13 Mton only residual fuel) and are reduced according to1990 UNFCCC (1999) numbers (3.0 Mton) assuming the following distribution (assuming residual fuel oil accounts for 80 % of the sale, see Table 3-1 and
[UNFCCC, 1997/IEA statistics; Wright, 1996]:
• Residual = 2.4 Mton
• Distillate = 0.6 Mton
The Saudi Arabia and Hong Kong bunker sales reported by EIA may include some international aviation or other source in the reported sales, based on:
沙特阿拉伯和香港燃油销售额可能包括在销售一些国际航空或其他来源的基础上,由环境影响评估报告:
• An analysis between the relation of distillate and residual fuel 1996 data. Figure 3-4 shows that Saudi Arabia and Hong Kong (tow triangle points) differ from the other observations.
分析馏出液和残余燃料1996年的数据之间的关系。图3-4显示,沙特阿拉伯和香港(拖三角点)不同于其他意见。
• An analysis of the time variation of the sales by four countries, i.e. Japan, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, and Hong Kong. Figure 3-3 illustrates an approximately constant bunker sales from 1990 to 1996 by Japan and the Netherlands, while Saudi Arabia (1990 to 1996) and Hong Kong (1992 to 1996 http://www.ukassignment.org/uklunwen/ ) have in the same period an incredible increase in the sales of distillate. This study, therefore, replaces the Saudi Arabia and Hong Kong distillate 1996 sales with the 1990 figures (Japan and the Netherlands sales was approximately the same in 1990 and 1996).
分析随时间变化的四个国家,即日本,荷兰,沙特阿拉伯,和香港。图3-3说明了一个恒定的燃油销售额约1990年至1996年,日本和荷兰,沙特阿拉伯(1990年至1996年)和香港(1992年至1996年),而在同一时期有一个令人难以置信的销量增加-馏分油。
Figure 3-3 Distillate (upper) and Residual (lower) 1996 sales by Netherlands, Japan, Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, 1996 (EIA, 1999).
Figure 3-4 The relation between distillate and residual fuel, all countries, 1996 data. Upper Triangle indicates Saudi Arabia and lower Hong Kong (EIA, 1999).
图3-4馏分油和渣油燃料,所有国家1996年的数据之间的关系。上三角表示沙特阿拉伯和较低的香港(EIA,1999年)。
2. Estimate of international marine supply
国际海运供应估计
Based the on assumptions and modifications described above, the 1996 world–wide international marine bunker sales may be estimated to be 138 Mton, and separated as:
基于上述假设和修改,1996年全球范围内的国际船用燃油销售可能被估计为138 Mton,分离为:
• Distillate fuel: 38 Mton
• Residual fuel: 100 Mton
A breakdown of the annual international marine bunker sales (138 Mton) is made by country.
Table 3-5 shows the countries with the highest marine sales, supplying approximately 80% of the bunker usage world-wide. The United States was in 1996 the largest seller of international marine bunkers, followed by Singapore and Netherlands.
美国是1996年国际航运的最大销售商,其次是新加坡和荷兰。
These results are in agreement with bunkering ports statistic found by Det Norske Veritas [DNV, 1997] based on fuel oil statistics (not including Russia). Singapore, Rotterdam, Antwerp, Fujairah (United Arab Emirates), Houston, New Orleans, Panama Canal, Los Angeles, New York, and Tokyo are the major volume bunkering ports in the world.
新加坡,鹿特丹,安特卫普,富查伊拉(阿拉伯联合酋长国),休斯敦,新奥尔良,巴拿马运河,洛杉矶,纽约和东京港口是在世界上体积较大的加油站点。
This may also be illustrated by information on “major” ports (Fairplay, 1998) combined with the following trade area/rout information:
这也可以说明“主要”端口(Fairplay,1998年),结合以下贸易区/路径信息:
• Vessel traffic density (major trade area) based on weather observations from ships in 1996 (NOAA, 1999), Figure 3-8.
• Major Seaborne Crude Oil Trade presented in
• Figure 3-5, and the most important sea routes (Kunnskapsforlaget, 1988).
Figure 3-5 Seaborne Crude Oil Trade (1997), million metric tonnes and billion tonne-miles (parenthesize). Source: Fearnleys.
图3-5海运原油贸易(1997),万公吨亿每吨英里(圆括号)。资料来源:公司Fearnleys。
Table 3-5 Largest marine bunker seller by countries 1996 (EIA, 1999). International marine bunkers Countries
表3-5最大的海洋掩体卖家按国家1996年(EIA,1999)。国际海洋掩体国家
3. Conclusion
总结
An assessment based on several assumptions and modifications indicates the world international marine fuel sales as being 138 Mton in 1996. A breakdown of annual international marine bunker sales (138 Mton) shows that United States is (1996) the largest seller of international marine bunkers, followed by Singapore and the Netherlands.
基于几个假设和修改的评估表明,全球国际船用燃油销售在1996年为138 Mton。一年一度的国际船用燃油销售(138 Mton)的分项显示,美国是(1996年)最大销售商,其次是新加坡和荷兰的国际航运。
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