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1is to know what we don't know) the old adage phrase reflects not only the production of new knowledge of the uncertainty, but the person for the unknown world of infinite pursuit.
1is to know what we don't know）这句古老格言反映的不仅仅是知识生产中新的不确定性，而是人对于未知世界无限的追求。
It is this nature of the achievements of the continuous progress of mankind for centuries. Until today's highly developed market economy, uncertainty remains on the progress of the whole society plays an important role. The principle which will attempt to explore further the rational use to promote economic development is of great significance.
正是这种本性成就了人类几个世纪不断的进步。直至市场经济高度发达的今天，不确定性依然对整个社会的进步发挥着重要作用。尝试探究其中的原理将对进一步合理利用从而促进经济发展有着重要意义。
One pair needs and motivations of inspection.
一对需求和动机的考察。
Mankind has always been the spirit of exploration and control desires, our ancestors in this uncertain world constantly discover and transform the environment, but also transform themselves. In modern society this uncertain economic environment remains the same, this seems to be human nature.
人类素来是具有探索精神和控制欲望的，我们的祖先在这个充满不确定性的世界里不断地发现和改造环境，同时也改造了自己。在现代社会这个充满不确定性的经济环境中依然如此，这似乎是人类的本性。
Uncertainty is generally considered object should escape more closely linked with risk and have a negative psychological effect. Indeed, the basic needs for security decisions people more dependent on the familiar things, controllable environmental factors to provide a stable mental state, thus ensuring the limited space to move freely in accordance with their wishes, but also release more The attention to the small new things to explore and pursuit. And this is not so much to explore and pursue the result of seeking safety, as it is the reason, people always tend to endlessly expand their awareness and control, but the process itself is also intertwined with people's desire for freedom of movement . Compared to a century ago that humans can influence and control of the area, and thus the field of freedom of movement has been greatly expanded.
It can be seen that human progress is not accidental. People always meet the basic security needs, has generated a higher level of demand for freedom of movement, and this part of the action itself is to continue to expand awareness and control areas, which in turn reinforces the sense of security, and in the process also gained self-realization of human satisfaction, and so on ad infinitum. It can be said, in a completely deterministic world, the results of any actions arising are so sure that people will lose all momentum.
Similarly, in the market environment, people avoid the uncertainty but also the pursuit of uncertainty, and its full of fantasy and hope. This motivation will become the market economy under the conditions of the main micro behavior of important factors.
Two uncertainties connotations.
When Keynes noted that the uncertainty of his time in the functioning of capitalism played a key role, he tried to distinguish between uncertainty and risk of these two concepts. Keynes, uncertainty is a state, in this state.
Individual actors found it impossible to choose a clear expected results give a reasonable probability (Keynes, 1937). In comparison, the risk can be calculated, therefore, in probability theory can match the range of risks is an ocean of uncertainty that can be controlled islands.
If the risk is the uncertainty in the likelihood of a negative event, then the corresponding, there is the possibility of a certain event, that derive revenue possible, but we can say that it is this part of the uncertainty in the market for the main micro The main source of excitation. However, this distinction seems to be difficult, in complex situations in which people are often difficult to determine the direction of development of the situation, or even to determine the positive or the general negative trend, which mixed a variety of unexpected events is obviously uncertainty is the greatest hazard lies, people's behavior will lose momentum or even completely stalled. So whether the end result is positive or negative, in the uncertainty occurs when the motives of human behavior is suppressed.
Another situation of uncertainty, are known to occur in the event, but can not determine the extent of its occurrence or assign a definite probability, which is equivalent to the uncertainty in defining a framework, or call within the corresponding rules, so that the parties may be required to deal with the situation more clearly. This uncertainty is more likely to trigger positive behavior under specific conditions motive, that the uncertainty of the market environment of the person generating incentives.
Thus, the former as unstructured uncertainty, and the latter is called structured uncertainty this classification seems appropriate.
Three actors on the market uncertainty arising from incentive effects analysis.
1. Structured uncertainty analysis.
Structured Uncertainty important feature is that it will embed the uncertainty of the specific rules or framework, so that the behavior and results with a specific link between, although the probability of their occurrence and intensity unknown. This uncertainty is still under behavioral outcomes orientation nondeterministic, can not for a variety of favorable and unfavorable situation the probability distribution of the corresponding clear before, that the perpetrator will suffer losses and the gains may be considerable, the parties will not to take action, or no further action incentives.
However, if further defined the structural uncertainty risks that may arise, the situation will change. As previously defined risk, the probability can match the range of risk can be calculated. And this may be sufficient to quantify the risk of behavioral people rich source of information and be able to conduct in-depth understanding of them, so that the uncertainty in the information contained in the positive and negative possibilities for information on the possibility of by the symmetry transformation is asymmetric information itself provides a safe utility to meet the security needs of people must act in order to further explore the unknown inspired its revenue motive. That is known to occur with respect to the possible loss of space, the gains may be much larger space. It is this positive unexpected gains inspired actors infinite incentive to increase its revenue actively explore different possibilities.
Incentive principle can occur simply attributed to the risk in the pursuit of controllable unknowable interests. Although this analysis is still no explanation beyond the scope of rational man assumptions, but is already implicit in some of the non-rational factors, such as caused by unrealistic hopes motivation.
2 unstructured uncertainty analysis.
As previously mentioned, a mixture of unstructured uncertainty of possible events in different directions, the parties will not be due to loss of judgment to take further action, because behavior and profitability are completely lost contact. This will generate human motives completely suppressed. Such uncertainty is the great obstacle to a market economy, but also the behavior of people who need to avoid the object, its people have a negative psychological effect, but also because of the complexity of the individual circumvention taken measures to increase the transaction costs of the entire market , reducing the efficiency of operation of the market.
Three uncertainty on market efficiency and economic development.
1 uncertainty on market efficiency.
Discussion of uncertainty leads naturally as part of the market economy that should play a role, and never deterministic perspective, how to build a rational and efficient markets. No uncertainty in the market can not be called market, and uncertainty in the market can not be called a healthy market. Market through the price mechanism in the rational allocation of resources, and also provides an incentive main micro possible, but the problem is how to define an effective market uncertainty due to market it as a measure of the efficiency criteria.
Solution to the problem depends on the operation of the system in the market should play the role of the system should be no doubt that the market economy will limit the range of uncertainty in the structured uncertainty within the scope of a major power, that does not act as a structural certainty in the framework and rules. The market economic system should effectively prevent opportunistic unstructured caused by the uncertainty of a mature market should rely more on the sound system brings a stable psychological expectations, established between the behavior and performance stability contact, so that individuals with higher micro-economic initiative engaged in economic activities, thereby enhancing the vitality of the market, to speed up the flow of factors of production, and strengthen effective allocation of resources.
From this perspective, legalization for the effective functioning of the market economy has an extremely important role, it will default that may occur on the market or the cost of limiting moral hazard in a controlled or at least knowable range, so that the perpetrator of the source active participants in other markets have security risks psychological bottom line, and thus actively engaged in more efficient production activities.#p#分页标题#e#
Another noteworthy aspect is that efficient market system should not restrict the freedom of rational economic behavior, institutional constraints on the one hand lead to undesirable behavior, while the risk, to prevent interference system on rational behavior, only market activity Participants give full play to their initiative, in order to improve the market in resource allocation efficiency.
(2) uncertainty and economic development.
First, uncertainty promotion and implementation of human capital accumulation. Human beings are constantly on the environment in the process of trying to explore and learn, so as to continuously develop and progress, which is also a human capital accumulation process, the production of modern economic activities, human capital has become an important economic growth can not be ignored factors, and human capital not only affects the efficiency of the use of non-human capital, but also affect the rate of economic growth, but also determines the market innovation activities and quality of economic growth, and ultimately have a significant impact on economic development.
Through the introduction of non-human capital can be increased rapidly, while the growth of human capital is a relatively slow process, in order to accelerate the accumulation of human capital, investment in education is of course essential, however, investment in education does not guarantee effective into practical productive forces, an important reason for the lack of human capital accumulation in endogenous momentum, and its power is rooted in the market, it is the uncertainty of the market has stimulated exploration and learning needs, this need for educational investment provided the correct orientation, while clear goals and a strong motivation will also improve the efficiency of human capital accumulation. In this sense, investment in education should be directly or indirectly in some way associated with the market in order to achieve fast and efficient accumulation of human capital, human capital, but also to make a smooth return to the market and realize its value. Out of touch with the market demand, investment in education not only improves the possibility of structural unemployment, also contributed to the workers in the market for secondary investments, resulting in a great waste of resources.
This shows that the realization of human capital lies in learning to apply the conversion efficiency, regardless of learning or application, should have a reasonable purpose and motivation, resulting in uncertainty in the market is the source of such motives.
Secondly, uncertainty increases the possibility of innovation. Facts have proved that the planning system in the known correct path of development on economic growth is more efficient, but this development is to rely more on existing experience of learning and imitation, the realization of the extensive mode of economic growth, when economic development to a certain extent, this economic growth will inevitably encounter a bottleneck, one does not rely on innovation can not break through the bottleneck, which is what our country is currently facing major challenges - the transformation of economic development mode, the key lies in innovation.
Innovation is the soul of a nation's progress is an inexhaustible motive force for national prosperity. This is an innovation for the importance of a country's economic development incisive summary. At the same time, innovation is also a highly complex intellectual activity on the environment and individuals have raised more stringent requirements. And innovation seems to be more dependent on the large number of individuals in different directions to explore and try to improve the probability of success possible, market-oriented just under uncertainty provides this incentive, so a lot of innovation activities in a typical market environment complete. It is difficult to rely on national power to achieve, because there is no established model of success and experience.
This is based on the endogenous innovation activities, incentives for innovation should be more oriented to establish a good environment for innovation and expand. The first is through the uncertainty of the market for innovative activities in an effective incentive, incentives and reasonable uncertainty in turn depends on the corresponding system specification. On the one hand, they can effectively control the market risk, on the other hand, can improve market flexibility, reasonable to reduce the restrictions on individual economic behavior, so that it is willing and able to engage in more aggressive exploration and innovation activities, and effectively improve the community as a whole level of innovation.
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