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Passive appreciation of the renminbi against the euro, does not result in China's exports to Europe hit hard. Because the depreciation of the euro within the EU market competitiveness of Chinese products is very limited short-term impact, China's export growth to Europe adverse effects than expected to be small.
人民币对欧元的被动升值，不会导致中国对欧洲的出口遭遇重创。因为，欧元贬值对欧盟市场内中国产品竞争力的短期冲击十分有限，中国对欧洲出口增长的不利影响也比预期要小。
2010 RMB exchange rate has experienced two prominent changes: First, in the past six months time, the euro depreciated by 20%, resulting in passive appreciation of the RMB; two in the next 6-12 months may be active appreciation of RMB 1% -3 %. Accordingly, the market exchange rate will affect China's exports expressed concern. However, I believe that these two changes on the future impact of China's export growth is rather limited.
2010年的人民币汇率经历了两个突出变化：一是在过去半年时间里欧元贬值了20%，导致人民币的被动升值；二是在未来6-12个月里人民币可能会主动升值1%-3%。据此，市场对汇率会影响中国出口表示担忧。不过，笔者认为，这两个变化对未来中国出口增长的影响相当有限。
Because, since 2010, the European debt crisis pushed the euro depreciated, and cause significant passive appreciation of the renminbi. In November to December last year, the peak and the trough between June this year, the euro against the dollar more than 20%. During this period, the RMB exchange rate pegged to the dollar, the yuan and the U.S. dollar appreciated sharply against the euro together. According to Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a newer data show nominal effective exchange rate has appreciated since last November by 4.8% this year, between April and May is the rapid appreciation of 2.4%. This indicates that the passive one yuan appreciation feature is very obvious.
因为，自2010年以来，欧债危机推动欧元大幅贬值，并导致人民币的大幅被动升值。在去年11月至12月份的峰值和今年6月份的谷底之间，欧元对美元贬值超过了20%。这一期间，由于人民币汇率盯住美元，人民币与美元一起对欧元大幅升值。按国际清算银行（BIS）公布的较新数据显示，人民币名义有效汇率自从去年11月以来升值了4.8%，今年4月至5月之间更是快速升值了2.4%。这表明，这一轮人民币的被动升值特征十分明显。
Sharp depreciation of the euro, so that people worried about China's exports to Europe will suffer a heavy blow, coupled with the recent re-launch of the RMB exchange rate reform, but also to deepen this concern. In fact, the depreciation of the euro within the European market competitiveness of Chinese products is very limited due to short-term impact, not serious blow to China's exports to Europe. The reason why such a view, the following main reasons.
First, from the Chinese Customs announced 21 categories, 99 chapters, thousands of products (four-digit codes) import and export data can be seen in China and the EU, almost every product is "come and go "The. However, the comparison can be found in number and amount of import and export, EU exports to China's product price than most Chinese products exported to the EU price several times higher. This shows that, in most segments of the product market, Chinese companies and European companies are located in high-grade and low-grade products market ends are not mutually obvious competition. Chinese exports to the EU many of the products produced within the EU has long refused. Even if import prices doubled, the EU has already withdrawn from the market maker will not return to prostitution. Thus, the euro is unlikely to reduce imports of Chinese products on the EU market share.
Further analysis of depreciation of the euro against the impact of falling purchasing power will be passed on to the reduction in the number purchased, and thus indirectly reduce imports, but the impact on luxury goods than the large low-grade goods. This is because the depreciation of the euro, leading to the EU market prices of imported products, imported inflation occurs. In the name of the purchaser under the same budget, the price rise will lead to decline in real purchasing power of buyers, and their actual purchase amount will be reduced. Under normal circumstances, will result in lower real purchasing power of all purchasers reduce the number of items purchased. Among them, reducing the number of luxury goods purchased more, and reduce the number of low-end goods to buy less. In extreme cases, the buyer may reduce the purchase of luxury goods at the same time, increase the purchase of low-grade products (so-called "Giffen goods").
Secondly, the Chinese enterprises in the EU market competitors encountered mainly from China similar stage of development in developing countries, especially those located in some of China's neighboring countries and regions. Sharp depreciation of the euro against the yuan in the course of the euro against the currencies of these countries and regions, the depreciation rates are similar. Thus, the euro did not change China's export enterprises and export enterprises in neighboring countries and regions in the EU market, competitive advantage, there is no change in their respective market share.
Not only that, even the modest initiative RMB appreciation, the impact will not be one hundred percent delivered to China and its neighboring countries and regions, changes in relative prices of export products on. In the past 10 years, the scale of growth, China's economy is rapidly increasing with the neighboring countries and regions of the contact, the RMB exchange rate against neighboring countries and regions have significant impact on currency exchange rates. If the appreciation of the renminbi, the currency of neighboring countries and regions will follow the rise. A noteworthy phenomenon is that in the People's Bank of China announced to restart the first trading day exchange rate reform, the RMB has appreciated by 0.43% against the U.S. dollar, the neighboring countries and regions, the magnitude of currency relative to the U.S. dollar even more than the yuan.
From the long-term data, if the RMB in the next six to 12 months active appreciation of 1% -3%, China's exports will not be seriously affected. The current exchange rate of the euro against the yuan about the level of 8.38 was observed, which is not far from the most severe cases. From historical data, at the end of 1999 the first three years, the euro against the yuan exchange rate has been lower than the current exchange rate, the minimum had twice touched 7, is lower than the current exchange rate of nearly 20%. In addition, in May this year, the nominal effective exchange rate of 116.21, the highest level is not considered.
According to the analysis, the current RMB exchange rate changes (mainly RMB appreciation against the euro sharply passive) for Chinese exports to the EU increased adverse effects is still quite limited.
The latest PMI sub-index shows that in June, the new export orders index was 51.7%, down 2.1 percentage points from last month. Sub-sectors, 20 industries, there are five sectors less than 50% of the critical point.
New export orders in April were flat with March, May 2 consecutive months since the fall, which indicates that China's exports continued to show signs of slowing down the momentum of recovery.
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, Cai Jin, vice president, told reporters that, in general, as a leading indicator of foreign trade PMI new export orders index has two month lag. Since May, the index has begun slowing down trend, which means that, starting in June, July, export growth will begin to decline.
In fact, in terms of leading indicators or the recent introduction of the policy, have not supported the rapid growth of exports. First, on June 19, the central bank decided to further promote the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform, enhance RMB exchange rate flexibility, the RMB exchange http://www.ukassignment.org/yjfflw/ rate "loose" sign. Since the financial crisis was seven times raised the export tax rebate rate has also recently been canceled. Coupled with increased labor costs, trade friction, the European debt crisis and other factors gradually appear superimposed, analysts generally believe that the May export growth has reached a high point of the year, since June after exports will begin to truly enter the "high to low "half of the track.
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