留学生管理专业硕士作业范文参考-Sopwith Aircruiser

留学生管理专业硕士作业范文参考-Sopwith Aircruiser

 

Introduction

As a long tradition of aircraft manufacture –Sopwith Aircraft Industries (SAI) now is planning a new passenger aircraft: SopwithAircruiser 4 which may have a larger capacity and offer greater fuel efficiency than current SAC. There are two main options for this project: SAC4a and a lager model SAC4b. This report pays attention on the viable of SAC4 project from the view of schedule risk and financial risk. 作为一个悠久的传统，飞机制造–塔飞机工业（SAI）现在正计划一个新的客运飞机：sopwithaircruiser 4可能有较大的能力，提供更高的燃油效率比目前的囊。该项目有两个主要的选择：sac4a和较大的模型sac4b。本报告关注的进度风险和财务风险的角度sac4项目可行。

 

 

The procedure of new aircraft – SAC4

For this project, no matter SAC4a or the larger model SAC4b, there is a fixed procedure for most aircraft design and manufacture process. Once the project is confirmed, the aircraft procedure can be divided into three main phases: the design and prototype production phase, flight trials and testing phase, manufacture and delivery phase. 

Once the design concept is agreed, the aircraft procedure enters design and prototype production phase. The main elements of this phase include: specifying the engine with the chosen manufacturer and the manufacture of selected engine, the design of the avionics system and the production of a prototype, the design of the fuselage and the production of a prototype fuselage, the design of the wings and producing the prototype for use in the test aircraft, and some further discussions are needed in this phase with the potential airline customers and airports. 对于这个项目，无论sac4a或较大的模型sac4b，有固定的程序，大多数飞机的设计及制造工艺。一旦项目被证实，飞机的过程可以分为三个主要阶段：原型设计和生产阶段，飞行试验和测试阶段，制造和交付阶段。

一旦设计概念是一致的，飞机进入生产阶段的程序和原型设计。这一阶段的主要内容包括：指定的发动机与所选择的制造商和选定的发动机制造，航空电子系统的设计和原型的生产，机身的设计和生产原型机身，机翼的设计和生产中使用的试验飞机原型，并进一步讨论与潜在的航空公司和机场在这个阶段需要的。

 

 

Flight trials and testing are the essential phase for a successful design of the aircraft. As soon as the prototype of the main elements completed, the aircraft will enter the trail and testing phase. During this stage, a test aircraft will be firstly assembled, then the test aircraft will do its first flight test, some problems will be revealed after months of test; some design and modification will be done to solve the problems, and once the problems get their solution, the second flight test will be done to check the performance of the aircraft from different views and systems which also contain the problems which revealed during the first flight. Commonly, two flight tests are enough for a new designed aircraft; everything nothing is absolute, the third flight test will be done if there are much more problems revealed during the second flight test. 

 

 

The new designed aircraft passes the flight test means the new aircraft is mature enough for volume production. Safety certification must be the one of the last obstructs before the volume production. Once the new designed aircraft get safety certification, the aircraftprocedure will enter its manufacture phase. According to the capacity and orders, the new aircraft will produced and delivered to its customers. 

 

 

Table 1 the phases of an new aircraft procedure

Serial Elements Precondition 

1 specifying the engine with the chosen manufacturer

2 The chosen engine manufacturer produce the engine among the design requirement 1

3 The design of the avionics system and the production of a prototype

4 The design of the fuselage and the production of a prototype fuselage

5 Designing the wings and producing the prototype for use in the test aircraft

6 Interior design which pays attention on passenger comfort, safety and the efficient operation of the aircraft

7 Discussion with the airlines and airports to guarantee the compatibility with exist equipment

8 Assembling the first test aircraft 2 3 4 5 

9 First set of flight trials 8

10 Revised design and prototype aircraft adapted 6 7 9

11 Second set of flight trials 10

12 The design and build of the full scale production facility

13 Get the safety certification of the new designed aircraft 14

14 Construction of first production aircraft 11 12

15 Delivery the aircraft to its customer 13

 

 

Assessment of SAC’s financial, assuming no risk

According to some market research, if the new designed SAC4a fix a price of  £60 million, the likely demand is a total of 24 aircraft per year. And these sales are expected to continue for 8 years after full scale production begins, because after 8 years the next generation aircraft will be available. So the expect sales volume will be 192, and the total income will be  £11520 million. 

 

 

Shift the sight to costs, there will be two main parts for the cost: the cost spends during the design phase and the cost which happen during the manufacture phase. The design process of a new aircraft is cost enormous process, to SAC4a there are 14 main elements had cost during the design and test process and the detail is showing the following table.

 

 

Table 2 the time and cost of design phase

No. Elements Time (month) Cost ( £ million)

1 specifying the engine with the chosen manufacturer 3 49

2 The chosen engine manufacturer produce the engine among the design requirement 3 18

3 The design of the avionics system and the production of a prototype 20 259

4 The design of the fuselage and the production of a prototype fuselage 13 138

5 Designing the wings and producing the prototype for use in the test aircraft 13 190

6 Interior design which pays attention on passenger comfort, safety and the efficient operation of the aircraft #p#分页标题#e# 11 45

7 Discussion with the airlines and airports to guarantee the compatibility with exist equipment 2 44

8 Assembling the first test aircraft 6 50

9 First set of flight trials 9 100

10 Revised design and prototype aircraft adapted 9 200

11 Second set of flight trials 6 70

12 The design and build of the full scale production facility 26 623

13 Get the safety certification of the new designed aircraft 3 3

14 Construction of first production aircraft 3 172

According to research, the annual operating costs for the production facility are estimated to be  £180 million, while the marginal cost of the labor, materials and the various components, including the engines, bought in from suppliers used in the construction of each SAC4a is estimated to be  £20 million. 

To sum up the total cost of 192 new SAC4a which will be sale in the following 8 years after it enter in the volume produce process is  £7241 million.Just as the following table showing, it is financial viability for the project with the assuming of no risk. 

Table 3 Revenue and expenditure for the new SAC4a expected

Items Amount Unit price ( £M) Subtotal ( £M)

Revenue Sales of SAC4a 192 60 11520

Expenditure Cost of SAC4a 192 20 3840

Annual cost 8 180 1440

Design and test cost 1 1961 1961

 

 

Net income 4279

Qualitative analysis of the schedule risk

Overview the whole design and test process, the design of the avionics system and the production of a prototype is the key phase before the assemble of the prototype aircraft, as it needs 20 months which much longer than engine specify, fuselage and wings design and prototype process. The assemble of the prototype aircraft, the first set of flight, the revised design and aircraft adaption, the second set of flight and safety certification are serial process for the design process. Then the design process can divided into design, assembly, flight trials and production, and according to history data of SAI, the first set of trials usually cost much time than expect. For this project, the expect time for first set of trials is 9 months; there is enough space for the delay. 

 

 

To sum up the schedule risk of the project is controllable. 

Quantitative analysis of the financial risk

To the financial of this project, as there is no schedule risk for the project, so the cost which happen during the design and test process will be fixed or fluctuate in small scale. The annual operating costs are estimated to be  £180 million; there is significant uncertainty about these estimates, a standard deviation of 10% might be reasonable, that is to say the annual operating costs may in the range from 162 to 198 million. To the worst situation, the IRR for SAI is even 18.4% which is much higher than SAI’s usually target 15%. 

 

 

To sum up the financial risk of the project is controllable.

Comparison between SAC4a and SAC4b

To SAC4b, the sale price can be up to £95 million; with the variable production cost would be higher at £25 million. In appearance, SAC4b has high profitability than SAC4a, but the development project would take about 50% longer and cost 50% more. With the 50% more cost during the design process, the total cost of design and test process will up to £10861 million, and with the high schedule delay risk, SAC4a is a better invest project than SAC4b.

 

 

Risk Assessment and Conclusionof the Project Proposal

There are some successful projects implemented by SAI, and this report is based on the collected data and with the help of correct analysis methods, the risk of this project proposal is controllable. 

 

 

All in all, as the SAC4a project can bring SAI stable income, with controllable schedule and financial risk during the design, test and production process, SAC4a is valuable project to invest for SAI.