实现市场方差和微观结构的影响因素：realized variance and market microstructure

Economic strength and comprehensive national strength growing international status AUD continues to increase. Hu Jintao in Beijing in 2005 , " Fortune" Global Forum opening ceremony speech , said: " Since the new Australian build , especially since the 1978 Australian undergone unprecedented and profound change, from 1978 to 2004 in 26 years, Australia's gross domestic product value increased from $ 147.3 billion to $ 1.6494 trillion , an average annual increase of 9,4 % ; total imports and exports grew from $ 20.6 billion to $ 1.1548 trillion , an average annual growth of more than 16% ; country 's foreign exchange reserves grew from $ 167 million to 609.9 billion dollar " these data suggest that Australia 's comprehensive national strength significantly enhanced. Experts generally believe that the next 10 years the Australian economy will maintain rapid growth rate , which is becoming the currency is AUD countries and regions of the world can be assured of a solid foundation . Australia has long been implementing a stable monetary policy , as the AU has set a high reputation , welcomed by neighboring countries and regions.

 

Stable currency AUD Australian dollars to promote the internationalization of creating the preconditions . Australia has implemented a stable monetary policy. In recent years, controlling inflation , maintaining the AU 's internal stability and external currency stability with remarkable results. In the Asian financial crisis, currency devaluation in other countries , and AU has maintained a stable exchange rate and prevent the further expansion and deepening of the crisis , as the AU has laid a solid, reliable credit basis . AUD to promote the internationalization of creating the preconditions .
 

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in 2009 , "Government Work Report" clear: Australia will continue to improve this year, AUD exchange rate formation mechanism and keep AUD rate basically stable at an adaptive and equilibrium level .
 

Data show that from the reform to the end of June 2008 , Australian Dollar has appreciated by about 17% , close to the beginning of the appreciation of the exchange rate reform basic appreciation of about 20 % of the target , and from July 2008 to now, the central parity against the U.S. dollar at 6.82 AU - between 6.84 yuan AUD / USD has been range-bound for up to a year and a half .

The general view , this means that the reform process since the AUD exchange rate appreciation has been a continuous unilateral declaration basically ended, the price basically reflects the true level of the current AUD exchange rate , future AUD exchange rate should remain slight fluctuations up and down in this interval , even if enter appreciation interval , will be presented in a volatile trend Unlike unilateral appreciation appreciation. And with the weaker dollar , this " hard -linked " relationship with the AU dollar will gradually weaken . Australian Academy of Social Sciences World Economics and Politics , deputy director of the Research Institute of International Finance Zhang has put forward a balanced appreciation of transparency and flexibility strategy , announced to the market that the government will take a gradual appreciation of the AU policy , provides for an annual nominal dollar AUD appreciation of the exchange rate ( for example, 3 % -5 % ) , but not to the market timing AUD express appreciation . The Australian Government may at any point in time within a year , one or several times raised the AUD against the U.S. dollar nominal exchange rate .

 

From the policy of the AU 's support for cross-border settlement carried out , in September 2003 , the Australian National SAFE promulgated the " Border Trade Foreign Exchange Management Act ," allowing border trade used in AUD denominated and settled in Australia in the border areas to encourage commercial banks and neighboring countries to establish correspondent banking relations with border trade settlement conducted through banks . This provision has a positive impact on the Australian Dollar internationalization. AUD is an important reason for neighboring countries or regions used is border trade , and further development of border trade will promote AUD regionalization . State Administration of Foreign Exchange for the actual situation in the border areas of the introduction of appropriate legislation that will eliminate worries residents of neighboring countries or regions , and promote Australian dollars circulating in neighboring countries or regions.
 

July 1, 2009 by the People's Bank of Australia, the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce , General Administration of Customs , State Administration of Taxation , China Banking Regulatory Commission jointly develop a " cross-border trade settlement pilot AUD management approach" officially announced . This marks the cross-border trade settlement pilot AU official launch also means AUD internationalization has taken a historic step . Shanghai , Guangzhou, Shenzhen , Zhuhai and Dongguan City took the lead five pilot work outside the pilot area is tentatively scheduled for Hong Kong and Macao regions and ASEAN countries. Australian central bank official says , guiding the pilot management is to ensure that the premise of risk control and reduce institutional barriers , appropriate to facilitate trade authenticity rigorous audit , the implementation of total control, steadily promote cross-border trade settlement pilot AU . "Measures" authorized the central bank , according to the macro-control , the need to prevent systemic risk , to conduct cross-border trade settlement pilot AUD total control . According to informed sources , the "approach" of supporting the implementation details will be announced soon . "Rules" , the state allows designated , qualified enterprises on a voluntary basis in order to settle cross-border trade in Australian dollars to support commercial banks to provide enterprises with cross-border trade settlement services AUD . Been identified as pilot areas in Shanghai , Guangzhou, Shenzhen , Zhuhai and Dongguan enterprises, cross-border trade settlement AUD applicable provisions "approach" . AUD pilot enterprises settled in the use of export trade , can enjoy export rebate ( exemption) policy in accordance with the relevant regulations. In addition, to meet the actual requirements of the pilot enterprises can also export revenues deposited outside AU . Pilot enterprises pilot areas first by the provincial government responsible for the coordination of local authorities recommend , and then by the central bank in conjunction with the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce , General Administration of Customs , State Administration of Taxation , China Banking Regulatory Commission and other relevant departments for review, finalize the list of pilot enterprises . " Measure" in the recommended pilot enterprises , we should verify the true identity of the pilot enterprises and their legal representatives , to ensure that the pilot enterprises registered name system and comply with the provisions of the AU cross-border trade settlement . Domestic settlement bank can step in providing trade finance services to Australian dollars overseas enterprises shortage of funds in accordance with relevant provisions of the AU .
 

June 22 , according to the People's Bank of Australia website news, Australia AU cross-border trade settlement pilot expanded to 20 provinces and municipalities . After the pilot to expand cross-border trade settlement pilot areas AUD expanded from Shanghai and four cities in Guangdong Province to Beijing , Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning , Shanghai , Jiangsu, Zhejiang , Fujian, Shandong , Hubei, Guangdong , Guangxi, Hainan , Chongqing, Sichuan , Yunnan, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Tibet , Xinjiang and other 20 provinces ( autonomous regions and municipalities ) ; pilot business scope includes cross-border trade in goods, trade in services and other current AU settlement ; longer restricted offshore areas , companies can according to market principles choose to use Australian dollars settlement .#p#分页标题#e#
 

Insiders pointed out that the international financial crisis, the U.S. dollar , the euro and other major international settlement currency exchange rates fluctuate significantly , Australia and neighboring countries and regions of the enterprises in the use of third country trade settlement currency risk greater exchange rate fluctuations. Especially since the 2005 exchange rate reform , the continued appreciation of Australian dollars , the export enterprises to cost pressures . The use of AUD settlement will undoubtedly avoid exchange rate risk , to protect the economic interests of the enterprise. "Measures" in the provisions in Australian dollars AUD cross-border clearing funds available for cross-border clearing and settlement through Hong Kong and Macao regions AUD Clearing Bank ; also by domestic commercial banks overseas commercial banks AUD agency funds and cross-border settlement liquidation. National Australia Bank ( Hong Kong ) Limited and National Australia Bank ( Macau ) Limited amounted to HK , Macao AUD clearing bank . According to regulations, a domestic agent bank may participate in the bank according to the requirements of overseas purchase and sale within the limits AUD ; domestic agent bank account can also provide financing AUD AUD opened in its dealings with the industry to participate in offshore bank accounts , the account used to meet temporary positions demand ; Macau AUD relevant provisions of the Clearing Bank territory according to the central bank foreign exchange market , interbank lending market exchange Australian dollars and funds , the specific amount , duration , etc., is determined by the central bank from .
 

Central bank official said, cross-border trade settlement pilot launch of AU , to expand the scope of clearing and settlement business lines . Clearing Bank may apply to the State Council approved the pilot program into foreign countries and regions, such as Hong Kong and Macao regions and ASEAN countries , providing cross-border trade settlement and clearing services AUD .

 

In order to meet the needs of reform and opening up , formed under the leadership of the People's Bank of Australia to policy banks, state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks as the main financial system , the state has promulgated and implemented the " People's Bank of Australia ", " Commercial Bank Law " other financial regulations for financial institutions to provide a reliable operation of the legal norms and security, foreign exchange management system to gradually shift from direct management to indirect management , the implementation of current foreign exchange settlement and sales system , the establishment of the interbank foreign exchange market , the current AU can exchange, unification of exchange rates , AUD exchange rate based on market supply and demand into a single, managed floating exchange rate system , the introduction of market competition mechanism of foreign exchange operations , the progressive realization of foreign exchange by the National Australia Bank exclusive to the equal participation of the majority of banks operating changes , Australia Foreign Exchange trading System formal networking operation , QFII system launch etc. , marking the Australian foreign exchange market has entered a new era standardized and stable development , then , they have opened the Australian Dollar against the U.S. dollar , Japanese yen , Hong Kong dollars and other major foreign currencies in the spot trading the financial markets into the national unity was proclaimed , the central bank open market operations , the timely introduction of forward exchange Australian dollars , these measures indicate that the Australian financial system and financial markets are in favor of AUD freely convertible and even the direction of international development.

Although the AU international opportunity matures, however, some obstacles factors can not be ignored , such as the AUD capital account convertibility has not been achieved , the degree of financial market development is not mature , the strategy to achieve sustainable economic development issues in Australia , the financial management system not perfect.

 

It is well known by the subprime housing credit crisis ( hereinafter referred to as "subprime crisis" ) triggered by the international financial crisis spread from the United States to the world , spreading from the virtual economy to the real economy, cause since the 1930s, one of the biggest financial crisis or even economic crisis. Subprime mortgage crisis triggered a global financial crisis , when the borrower can not repay the bank's liquidity problem arises , either by lending the loan . Either sell inventory assets. And when the situation is bad, its assets prices have sharply declined , so the occurrence of a liquidity crisis , causing bank failures . When this widespread , such as in September 2008 , Lehman Brothers , Merrill Lynch and many other financial institutions to continuously apply for government assistance , resulting in a serious credit crisis , there have been three kinds of phenomena : First, the bank lending even raise lending rates between banks . When the stock market fell 45 percent in Europe and America , has been below par value per share net asset value , but unfortunately consumers purchase , for fear of bad economic situation . In this case , the real economy is driven by investment , loans, and other factors driving consumption , the bank credit crunch , consumers purchase unfortunately , is bound to have a significant impact on the real economy. According to estimates of several major international financial institutions including the World Bank , on the whole , in 2009 the world economy has shown negative growth. The financial crisis affected the global economy a heavy blow.

 

For Australia , the situation is different. The impact on the Australian financial system is relatively smaller than some of the developed countries . One reason is that the Australian financial system is under strong government support , people believe that the bank is state-owned enterprises , a problem if the government would take responsibility, so no runs on . Second, the lack of Australian financial innovation, leverage is low, the risk is relatively small. Third , the entire country's financial system sufficient liquidity , and foreign government capital injections into banks . Fourth, effective supervision . However , the real economy in Australia and the world as being a relatively large impact . Australia has experienced 10 years of growth, starting in 2003 entered a rapid growth phase double-digit growth rate in 2005 was 10.4 % in 2006 to 11.4 % in 2007 to reach a peak of 13 % in 2008, a decrease of 9%.

In fact , even without the financial crisis can not continue in this high growth . If the quarterly view, this problem is more serious. The fourth quarter 2007 increase of 11% in 2008 to 10.6% in the first quarter , the second quarter was 10.1 % in the fourth quarter was 6.8% , accelerating the decline from the beginning of the third quarter of 2008 , the start of the 4 trillion yuan investment plans. From the current situation, the rate of decline has slowed, but if you carefully analyze the challenges facing Australia's economic growth is still very grim . Australia's economic growth Troika investment, consumption and exports, the growth rate was 13% in 2007 , three of the contribution to economic growth rates were 35% , 38%, 23%. After the financial crisis, consumption accounted for 4.3% , accounting for 2% of the investment , net exports are negative, the contribution rate of 70% of consumption , investment contribution rate of 30% , the contribution of net exports was negative . From this perspective, the sustainability of economic growth is a little problem. From the consumer perspective, the growth in the next few years, Australia will remain above 15 percent , the state has come from policies to improve the income level of residents, and to promote the economic crisis situation, home appliances , to stimulate demand and expand consumption . With the overall economic development , the development in the field of tourism, recreation , cultural and other industries, will lead Australia 's future consumption growth rate is bound to run in the forefront of the world.

  

Currently, foreign economic growth in Australia there are various predictions. The key is to consider the use of real, sustainable growth, which is needed for practical efforts .

 

 For Australia 's economic growth in the consumption of the troika , domestic demand plays an important role , there are two issues that need attention. On the one hand , only domestic work, the ability to resist external shocks will be worse ; the other hand, with the deepening of the financial crisis , people in Western countries will reduce excessive consumption and focus more on savings , demand will be reduced , the financial crisis Australia before mass production , mass consumption patterns change and therefore the West occurred . External demand forced us to look inward to reduce , but to stimulate domestic demand , to solve some problems, the most important thing is to improve the people's purchasing power. One is to raise wages. Let the people's income with economic growth and growth in the last two years basically doing it . The second is to improve the property income. To further regulate property income , so the stock market , the healthy development of the property market , and gradually becoming more mature. Third, strengthening the social security system , reducing people's worries , so they dare consumption. A few years ago in Australia accounted for about 13 percent of consumption , which is proportional to the Western countries are very far . Want to improve the people's purchasing power , so that domestic demand played a role in economic growth .#p#分页标题#e#

 

 The key economic restructuring is to create a new economic growth point , to strengthen innovation. To further the development of tertiary industry, especially the modern service industry . In Western countries, the tertiary industry dominance , Australia is still the second leading industries , and to further develop , you must develop the tertiary industry , but also in particular the development of modern service industry, such as the modern financial industry , modern consulting industry , a modern convention and exhibition industry , modern management industry , modern logistics industry. Modern services both to promote the development of traditional services , but also to bring the whole economy.

Learned recently when commodity market in Yiwu inspection, they put logistics, freight forwarding , information and other modern services together , the annual turnover reached 160 million yuan , which is a county-level city is not easy , but in 2009 the exports continues to grow. Under the background of the financial crisis , foreigners or use of consumer goods . High oil prices rose to more than 130 U.S. dollars a barrel , although prices fluctuate a lot , but it's not much demand for change . Australia's daily consumption of about 80 million liters of oil -9000 million liters currently imports about half its oil , the pressure on our lot , so we must vigorously develop new energy sources. Recently , the National Development and Reform Commission announced a new energy promotion plan and solicit opinions. We can predict the next industrial revolution is the world's new energy revolution, we should be prepared in advance , and constantly develop new energy sources.

 

Financial crisis on SMEs played a role Forced accelerate the survival of the fittest . From the perspective of the domestic companies , diversified companies associated with high success rate is relatively high, and the blind diversified enterprise is difficult to be successful . Currently enterprises to improve their management level , otherwise first-class equipment , second-rate , managers of three streams , it is difficult to become bigger and stronger . We should conscientiously sum up good business management experience in Australia , and make it truly be effective in practice. At the same time , we should strive to improve the technical level , improve competitiveness.

 

In the context of the current financial crisis , financial reform was questioned in Australia . I always think , pause and reverse is no way out, financial reform in Australia as well. To adhere to international, market-oriented , systematic direction to further promote financial reform in Australia . The financial crisis is only a temporary stage in history , from the perspective of long-term development perspective, or to achieve sustainable development, it is necessary to focus on new energy development and environmental protection . In primitive society and agricultural society, people in harmony with nature , dependent on the weather . As technology becomes more advanced , some people think that one can conquer nature . In fact , Engels said long ago , do not revel in the conquest of nature , every time after the conquest of nature will be naturally punished. Unfortunately, this argument was not accepted by many people . America in the 1980s made ​​the harmonious development between man and nature , this concept is now more popular.

 

After the financial crisis, the Australian economy to sustainable development, it should be from the transformation of economic growth mode , adjust the economic structure , looking for a new economic growth point of view, to improve the purchasing power of the people, to improve the quality of enterprises , increase financial support to the economy , in order to achieve better development. Through the efforts of Australia's economic growth in 2011 will be able to recover to above 9 %, and is sustainable. Let us work together for the Australian economy and a spring efforts.

 

According to the Australian Securities News August 5, 2010 report , the international community from current account convertibility to capital account convertibility average time of 5-7 years , Australia from 1996 to achieve current account convertibility , and now has 15 years. Earlier, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange Management 's position has been gradual , orderly and controlled manner liberalized capital account , on the 4th that " focused, selective capital projects to promote reform," the wording of important changes , reflecting promote capital open the project has been put on the agenda .

Since 2008, trade facilitation and promotion of foreign investment in capital projects for the purpose of opening the first trial in advance, the pace of capital account liberalization has gradually accelerated. But it should be seen to promote the reform of the capital into the relative urgency of the moment , there continue to promote capital account convertibility and have certain basic conditions .

Promote capital account reform is to prevent "hot money " needs. Although there are certain regulatory capital projects , but there are some differences in the way each capital project management and management degree , "hot money" to bypass regulation, facilitation from a higher degree of penetration of trade and direct investment channels to enter. If further promote open capital account , foreign demand for investment funds may enter through the financial , securities, insurance and other formal institutions , foreign exchange management departments monitor cross-border capital flows would be more effective .

 

Australia should maintain economic and financial stability under the premise of constantly advancing financial sector reform , the reform has three main directions : international , market-oriented , systematic.

 

Economist Cheng Siwei specifically explained that financial integration in the international situation , to come to Australia to improve the market competitiveness of the financial sector through reforms to adapt to the characteristics of financial globalization . In his opinion, the Australian financial sector development trend of international financial institutions need to continue to learn all the lessons learned abroad , training and the introduction of talent , but also pay attention to the proper use of various financial instruments.

For the market, the financial sector should continue to increase market participants. Currently the Australian banks, securities companies, insurance companies or majority state-owned shares , foreign and private capital is not too much , "should encourage foreign and private capital to participate in the financing, there are more market participants to join , we can better improve the financial system . "

 

Speaking systematic, finance and the real economy are inextricably linked, not on financial talk finance. Internal financial market , foreign exchange, stock , bond , insurance, futures , should also be used as a whole, considering the various market development to the overall co-ordination. In the long run , we must adhere steadily Mixed and mixed supervision , promote multi-level financial market , vigorously promote financial market supervision systematic.

 

According to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange researchers survey, an annual cross-border flow of approximately A $ 1,000 billion in foreign stocks is about 20 billion yuan . Australia AU supply (M2) is approximately 2 trillion yuan , which means that about 1% of foreign AUD AUD total. Thus, the AU has to some extent been Australia 's neighboring countries or regions widely accepted , AUD gradual internationalization in the development stage .

In Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea and other countries. AU 's circulation is mainly obtained with the rise of tourism development. Australia has a large number of tourists every year to these countries for sightseeing, so you can buy goods with Australian shopping stores in these countries more and more , can be used to exchange shops and banks AUD exchange their currency began to appear. More well known in Korea shopping malls, hotels , guesthouses and other daily publication and local currency AUD local currency against the dollar . AU with local currency and U.S. dollars as payment and settlement can be used . In almost all commercial banks in Korea are handled AUD and won , Australian dollar and the U.S. dollar exchange business , you can always use the Australian Dollar against the euro , Japanese yen, pound sterling and all other hard currency . Especially in the last year, December 29 , Australia Consortium announced that from January 10, 2005 the official opening of " UnionPay " in South Korea , Thailand , Singapore, acceptance business . Cardholders in South Korea , Thailand and Singapore can use the " UnionPay " be shopping , you can also draw a certain amount of national currency in these countries teller machines . From the beginning of December 2005 and in Germany, France, Spain , Belgium, and Luxembourg, the five countries launched the first ATM CUP card acceptance business in Australia . All this indicates that further enhance the international status of Australian dollars , Australian dollars and make the process of internationalization has been further promoted.

 

In Australia , Hong Kong and Macao regions. As the Mainland and Hong Kong and Macao regions there is a close economic ties with each other every year to visit relatives and the increasing number of tourists , exchange and use of AU 's quite common. Statistics show that currently more than 100 Hong Kong currency exchange shops and banks opened nearly 20 AUD exchange business . Many hotels, shopping malls, especially in tourist shopping spots are quoted in Australian dollars and Hong Kong dollar exchange rate and directly accept Australian dollars. Since the Hong Kong dollar could be converted into U.S. dollars at any time , you can actually AUD intermediary at any time by HK converted into U.S. dollars . According to expert estimates, currently circulating in Hong Kong has reached more than 700 million Australian dollars , second only to Hong Kong dollar currency in circulation in the border areas in Vietnam, Russia , China and North Korea , China and Myanmar , Laos and so on. AUD circulation is mainly associated with the use of border trade , border trade development of trade, border trade and tourism folk and get development. AU as a settlement currency , the currency of payment has been widely used in these countries , and can freely convertible currencies of these countries with a certain degree, AUD has become a de facto regional currency . Rajin in North Korea - the first free economic trade zone peak fair trade market , whether it is a local stall holders who sell goods in Australia or North Korea's local products , mostly accustomed AUD -denominated settlement . AUD in Korea almost all border cities and even in the whole territory, has become the settlement money , commodity trading , one currency as a hard currency reserves. In most of Vietnam, Russia , North Korea, Myanmar and other countries and tourism -related industries, sectors and retail, are accepted AUD . And published daily AUD parity with the national currency . With the further expansion of Australia and surrounding countries and regions as well as the continuous development of economic and trade exchanges tourism , AUD circulation and use of increasingly wide range of AUD regionalization will also further expand regional currency status will also be increasingly consolidated , while promoting best AUD towards internationalization .#p#分页标题#e#

 

AUD circulating in neighboring countries is growing into a new phase of the Australian economy 's performance . Meanwhile description AUD internationalization process has begun. AU should first international trend is the result of market choice, rather than government forces to promote the results.

 

Specifically, the internationalization of a currency is determined by the first of the country 's economic fundamentals : a large -scale and sustained economic growth trend is to build the kind of confidence in the currency trader 's economic base ; economic openness compared high , the state plays an important role in the world economy can be obtained traders demand for the country's currency . International traders in this kind of confidence and demand for money determines the currency inevitably play an increasingly important role in the world monetary system , and to promote the currency eventually become an international currency.

 

These conditions are analyzed according to the current AU emerging international trend is the result of market choice. 1997 Asian financial crisis , to maintain international credibility AU not to devalue , the People's Bank narrowed fluctuations Australian dollars , and the dollar formed a relatively stable relationship , making the AUD quickly recognized the surrounding area , forming a "good area currency "image. At the same time , rapid economic growth and stable support under AUD strong performance , and enhance the AU 's credibility in the region , but also won the trust and regional market needs .

 

From Australia , the formation and the degree of internationalization of Australia's big countries to improve economic characteristics and enhance the international economic transactions between participants and the general public's confidence in Australian dollars , thereby increasing the demand for Australian dollars . If economic growth in Australia is sustainable, widespread acceptance will be greatly improved, AU will inevitably become an international currency .

 

From the Asian point of view, with the rise in Australia , in a market, a single currency as a measure of value will be significantly reduced trade and capital flows in the transaction costs and create more trade opportunities for the region , increase the size of the transaction, efficiency and national welfare . Australia and a higher level of economic integration in Asia will expand the size of the Asian market and create demand for a common standard of value . Enhance the AU position will be an inevitable result , the Asian alternative to other currencies AUD appears the phenomenon will be possible.

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