|
英国华威大学 二月七日英国卡尼将公开露面，这是他在就任英国银行最高领导人所接受财政立法委员会的首次询问，并且这个是非常重要的。卡尼是英国从加拿大的央行中聘请过来的，最近他本人希望可以重新调整英国的货政策。他谈到疲软的经济需要刺激一下，直到它达到“逃脱速度”，中央银行需要“收一收手”，在减弱刺激之前宣布经济需要达到的水平。他还间接表示名义GDP（不进行通胀调整的现金产出价值）比起通胀是更好的目标。表示愿意重新考虑这个方案是令人感到欣慰的，但是必须与卡尼的思想联系起来。 目前英国银行的财政部总理将通率膨胀率的目标设立为百分之二。在国内目前的经济条件之下，这种方法是可行的。但是由于短期利率几乎为零，经济增长率如果按名义上计算只是百分之二。如果把通货膨胀率也考虑在内的话，那么经济几乎没有增长。央行在这个时期之内实行了很多政策，把货币政策重新定位是很有必要的并且要着重调整GDP这个概念。我们的建议是：英格兰银行应该在奥斯本银行领导人的辅助之下支持这一利率，在名义GDP（目前为1.5万亿英镑）基础上至少减少百分之十，这项措施不会收紧政策。 ON FEBRUARY 7th Mark Carney will appear before theTreasury Select Committee for his first formal grilling from British lawmakers since being named thenext governor of the Bank of England. This will be an important moment. MrCarney, hired away from the Bank of Canada, has recently given hints that hewants to shake up British monetary policy. He has talked about the need tostimulate an inert economy until it reaches “escape velocity”; he has said thata central bank might need to “tie its hands” by announcing thresholds to bereached before it reduces stimulus; and he has suggested that the level ofnominal GDP—the cash value of output without adjusting for inflation—might be abetter target than inflation alone. This willingness to think afresh isadmirable. But Mr Carney must now connect the dots between his ideas. At the moment the Bank of England’s mission, set bythe chancellor of the exchequer, is to focus on an inflation target of 2%. Thatmakes sense in normal circumstances. But with short-term interest rates atalmost zero, the economy growing at barely 2% in nominal terms(and not at all if you factor in inflation) and many years of austerity ahead,it is worth temporarily reinterpreting that policy and focusing on nominal GDP.Our suggestion is that the bank, backed by the chancellor, George Osborne,should make clear that it will not tighten policy until nominal GDP, currently £1.5 trillion,gets to a level that is at least 10% higher than today. When short-term interest rates are as low as they arenow, central bankers can loosen monetary conditions in two ways. They can useunconventional tools, such as “quantitative easing” (printing money to buybonds), to push down interest rates further along the yield curve. And they canguide people’s expectations of the future path of interest rates or inflation.If a central bank can credibly promise to keep monetary conditions loose evenas the economy recovers and inflation accelerates, it will, in effect, reducethe real level of interest rates today, and so boost the economy. The Bank of England has been willing to useunconventional tools. It was an early pioneer of quantitative easing; its morerecent “funding for lending” scheme for banks is a clever way to bring downbanks’ funding costs (and should be used to hit the nominal GDP target). ButBritain’s central bank has been less successful at mapping its future policypath. The Bank has interpreted its 2% inflation target in a flexible way,keeping monetary conditions loose even as inflation has stayed higher. But ithas not said how long such flexibility will last. Each time its interest-rate-settingcommittee meets, there is the possibility it will change its mind. That is where the nominal GDP target comes in. By promising to keep monetary conditions loose until nominal GDP has risen by 10%,the Bank would provide certainty that interest rates will stay low even as theeconomy recovers. That will encourage investment and spending. At the same timean explicit target of 10% would set a limit to the looseness, preventingpeople’s expectations for inflation becoming permanently unhinged. It is anapproach similar in spirit to the Federal Reserve’s recent commitment not toraise interest rates until America’s unemployment rate falls below 6.5%. This is not a perfect answer. Critics point out thatnominal GDP is hard to measure—and that no one knows exactly how big theshortfall in nominal GDP is, particularly since Britain’s productivity hasplunged since the financial crisis. Against that, a 10% increase is a fairlyconservative and clear target. Adopting it would be better for the Bank’scredibility than repeatedly missing the inflation target. Another worry is that all the growth would comethrough inflation. Sterling would fall, so imports would become pricier. Assetprices might bubble up, though Mr Carney could use other tools to cool them,such as limiting mortgage lending. There is in fact little risk of an unwantedboom. All this will take place as public spending is squeezed and Britain’smain trading partners in the euro zone are likely to be struggling. The last problem is Mr Osborne. A temporarynominal-GDP target needs his explicit support. He should give it, becauseagainst a background of tight fiscal policy, monetary policy is the best macroeconomic lever that Britain has. National network in London on April 23 (xinhua white) the British Treasury announced on the 23rd, the interpretation of the Scottish monetary policy report, against Scotland appearing after a referendum in 2014 independent or remain in the UK, from the choose of monetary and fiscal policy, makes an analysis on its interpretation and Scotland in the UK within a fiscal and monetary system is the "best choice". According to the report, if after a referendum on Scottish independence choice, just need to smooth the choice of monetary problems.Is to continue to use the pound, still is to choose the euro, or the invention of a new currency, report effect on the pros and cons of these options and make the evaluation and analysis. According to the report, the Scotland in Britain's fiscal system running smoothly, once the economic relationship between the two sides due to the independence and Scotland pounds is an open question whether to continue the application, and an independent Scotland inheritance sterling is also unlucky in its long development.In addition, Scotland's overall economy and the rest of the euro zone countries vary widely, making it hard to agile blend in.Finally, facta, points out that a new currency could be the best selected after its independence, but it will pay a big price, the business partner will suffer a lot of trouble. Speech finally concluded that the current economic model is always the British model, in Scotland in the UK as a whole the goods springs with running in a good financial system, is a partial form the British monetary system completely.Therefore, consider its price alone after breaking a variety of choices than their monetary system continue to stay in the UK, initiative Scotland trade-off the status quo. According to the report, Scotland, the Treasury secretary, John?Shi Wenni retort that the report is "alarmist", complete and maintain after independence with the British set up the monetary union, to continue using the pound, and this is the most excellent many economists are proposed.His performance, the British government but declined the monetary union was established with Scotland, due to other parts of the UK and Scottish regional trade at about 45 billion pounds a year, very close contact. China news agency, London on October 15 (xinhua Zhou Zhaojun) Britain, according to data from the national bureau of statistics announced on the 15th in September British cost price index (CPI) rose 2.7%, year-on-year growth of 0.4%, growth rates and annulus compared with one month before the flat. UK CPI growth in July and August for two months, flat last month in September, this is advantageous to the British central bank "forward-looking policy guidance" cargo springs. In August the bank of England to launch "forward-looking monetary policy guidance", keep the current 0.5% of ultra-low benchmark interest rates and quantitative easing policy unchanged, until the unemployment rate fell below 7%.But if the 18 to 24 months in the future, inflation means back to around 2.5%, the epicenter is coming to an end its forward-looking guidance.Inflation fell back safe, make the bank of England in the performance of the "forward-looking monetary policy guidance" reduced the concerns. The state statistics bureau, jet fuel prices is an important factor to pull the overall price level in September, but prices affect the partial cancellation, gasoline and diesel price declines.Data shows that the British automobile fuel prices down 0.2% month-on-month in September. In monetary policy statement released last week, the bank of England's monetary policy committee, said the unanimous approval to maintain the current monetary policy, and "forward-looking monetary policy guidance". According to PRA website revealed that non-eu countries Banks need to meet a series of strict conditions to continue to set up branches in the UK business, if failing to meet the requirements by the regulation, will be permanently banned British market. According to statistics, the UK foreign bank branches are sitting on 2.4 trillion pounds of assets, or about 1.6 times that of Britain's GDP, but after the financial crisis, the financial regulators are increasingly worried about the risk of foreign Banks spread effect will impact the local market, particularly in the UK to carry out the retail savings bank of Ireland is almost bankrupt after financial crisis, makes the UK regulator was forced to do guarantee for security deposit. According to requirements, branches of foreign Banks need to submit a detailed financial information, to PRA PRA will sort out these information to measure if the financial crisis, the foreign institutions are the degree of negative impact will be up to upload to UK, at the same time, foreign bank branches shall submit to the PRA in the financial crisis comes, if the risk aversion of the specific emergency plans. PRA stressed: "foreign Banks set up branches in the UK must continue to strictly abide by the terms and did not meet conditions may be permanently banned in Britain." Embarrassingly, shortly before the British government is still trying to persuade more foreign Banks come to Britain to set up branches, the British government hopes to deregulation to strengthen in the international financial centre of London.In October last year, in order to make London offshore yuan trading center, Mr Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer's visit to China when signed a series of terms with Chinese Banks into the UK market. And PRA, chief executive Andrew Bailey said tougher policy did not conflict with the British government to foreign Banks to open up markets, but in order to ensure that the UK financial system stability, need to strike a balance between the open market and stability. Market for the Bank (Bank of England) whether should expand the quantitative easing policy next month.The UK's monetary policy committee (MPC) was held on Thursday, maintain the 0.5% interest rates, and we will continue to implement the 175 billion pound quantitative easing.Calls, however, has called for the central bank to inject more capital market. The British chamber of Commerce (British Chambers of Commerce) chief economist David Kern, said economic improvement gradually weak, sparked worries.To avoid economic jailed again, hope that the MPC will "quantitative easing" to expand to 200 billion pounds.Novus Capital chief economist Geoffrey Dicks are pointed out, if necessary, the bank of England should buy gilts. However, before the second permanent secretary of the Treasury (Treasury) Sir Steve Robson believes that the bank of England should begin immediately out of quantitative easing.Investors worried that the policy making assets, including shares and commodity prices, prices soar. Steve Robson further pointed out that since the implementation of "quantitative easing" in March, in London, the blue chip index has climbed to 1616 rose 25%.Because of many institutional investors to the bank of England sold gilts, and use the extra funds to buy stocks and commodities, the MPC to buy Treasury bonds is likely to push up alternative asset prices. Nominal GDP (Nominal GDP) : refers to a country (or area) within a year to produce within their borders of the combined market value of all final products and services.GDP, as the core index of national economic accounting system, is a measure of a country (or region) comprehensive strength of the important indicators, such as we said to achieve 8% growth target, means the gross domestic product, or GDP to 8% more than last year. Quantitative Easing (QE: policy) : mainly refers to the central bank in a zero or nearly zero interest rate policy, by buying Treasury bonds and other long-term bond, increase the base money supply, massive liquidity injections into the market means of intervention, to encourage spending and borrowing, also be simplified to described as indirect printing money.Quantitative refers to expand the amount of currency, easing the reduce Banks' funding pressure.When Banks and financial institutions of securities by the central bank to buy the newly issued COINS were successfully into the private banking system.Quantitative easing involves government bonds, not only large amount, but also a long cycle.In general, only in the case of conventional tools such as interest rates are no longer effective, the monetary authorities will take this extreme action. In addition to the economic stimulus package, the United States itself problems also affect the dollar valuation.Auto industry to seek government bailout was defeated in congress, citi has beyond the balance sheet the entity which is about 1.23 trillion, about some of the assets and mortgage loans, once the loss of the balance sheet will bring huge losses to citigroup.The auto industry and financial industry potential crisis hidden trouble make dollar hedge function decline.In addition.The U.S. stock market rebound, the potential hedge fund redemption pressure drop, reducing the demand for dollars.Under multiple factors, the dollar fell again unavoidably. Monday night although slump in the dollar index, and commodity prices rebound, but the international gold prices rose limited, thwarted by the $830, $830 is an important support level, the early stage of the bigger drag on the gold now.Actually price explosion is early response to the dollar last Friday, so it is not surprising that the Monday night gold prices a little.In the short term, the dollar index will be in the 30 - day moving average to obtain a certain support, international gold prices will be in the $800 - $830 shock consolidation, afternoon can international gold prices such as $800, and the dollar index continued to fall, the gold price rise space.Such as the dollar index concussion after back stronger, then gold prices rebound will flash in the pan. March meeting minutes, according to the bank of England in the asset purchase plan to vote in scale, 6 out of 9 against further stimulus measures, proportional voting ", same as the outcome of the vote in February. One voted 3 is the bank of England governor Mervyn King (Mervyn King), he and two other officials argue 25 billion pound increase bond buying, but the results with a month earlier, the same are not getting through. "Further stimulus policies could improve the level of inflation, and once the market misreading cause pounds to continue downward. The current continue to expand the scale of asset purchases to stimulate the economy output does not have a large impact, as Banks and households reduce debt, and our economic transformation should be from the public and private consumption to investment and trade."The minutes showed. In addition, in the vote on whether to cut or raising interest rates, the bank of England all passed to keep interest rates unchanged, this situation is the same as the one month before the central bank's meeting. This after the central bank released the minutes, according to the bank of England's internal support further easing of doves and has no obvious change, as a result, conveniently pull litre, pounds after the minutes said, pound the jump trend of major currencies, including the dollar jumped 60 points, against the euro jumped 40 points, jumped 80 points against the yen. But before meeting minutes released, fears of minutes or display dove camp, sterling against major currencies diving posture, among them, the pound of about 30 points to 1.5052 dollars a minute diving, refresh the 4th low, this phenomenon can also see from the graph.Sterling fell against the yen minutes 30 points to 143.51, cut half or one of these days. Since the 2012 economic figures released in early January, the flagging economy sparked conjecture about the bank of England increase the intensity of easing, but official also stressed several times, including gold, sterling overvalued, as a result, the pound basically formed in early 2013, the unilateral trend lower even record intraday decline in more than 100 basis points. Carney in the group of 20 (G20) finance ministers and central bank governors meeting, said at a news conference after the end of the bank of England is still need to continue to maintain its loose monetary policy measures the same, even in the economy since then picks up, or to higher inflation, still need to be so. The bank of England in the quarterly inflation report released last week, according to the British economic recovery risks to be downward.According to the report, although the economic growth is restrained, consumer price growth is expected in the next two years will remain higher than target. 17:30pm on Wednesday (Beijing time), the bank of England will be announced on February 6-7 monetary policy committee meeting record. Investors will pay attention to keep interest rates and asset purchases the voting results.Whether unanimously, there are still differences. Earlier taro aso, Japan's finance minister, said does not take into account by buying debt easing monetary policy, at present also did not consider modifying the bank of Japan.The comments for the yen higher quickly.After that the bank of Japan released minutes instead of market impact is not big.In the afternoon, the bank of Japan's new President candidate will continue to be the focus of the market. Spanish and Italian political tension and Mario draghi said more inclined to dove (a loose monetary policy stance), and other factors, led to the recent pressure on the euro.February 18, the European central bank Mario draghi said the indicators suggest the economy still weak in 2013 for a period of time, very slow economic growth is expected in late 2013, there were no see sustainable economic recovery, the economic outlook still faces downside risk. Australia announced the fed meeting minutes, according to the inflation outlook to provide space to loosen monetary policy when necessary, the description of easing basic same as the resolution.But by Australia's federal reserve condition assessment relatively optimistic economic impact, the Australian dollar briefly after finishing fast, refresh session high of 1.0331. Due to the strong fiscal austerity measures, the economy in the first two quarters of this year will be in a state of zero growth or even negative growth, this is likely to lead to the country's overall unemployment rate after returning to above 8%.The U.S. government will start on March 1, in the comprehensive measures of automatic spending cuts, this will pose new shocks to the economy, and directly lead to some government employees lost their jobs, and in the field of in this way, the whole society investment and consumption outlook will be hit by adding insult to injury. |
 |
|||
| 网站地图 |
