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对援助增长的评估 本章描述了一种从外国引进的援助，它的目标和使用，其次是评估了援助对增长效果。它试图寻找能够评估援助并且使得将要被审查的正式发明有令人信服的理由的一种方法。 将外国援助作为工具的这种国家政策可以追溯到18世纪，菲特烈大帝的普鲁士资助了他某些盟友，以确保他们的军事支持和有效性。(Ekiring 2000) 在1949年杜鲁门总统的就职演说中，他更是公开提出了发展中国家对外国援助的需求。他称道外国援助的目的就是”给不发达地区的科学进步和工业进步的改善和发展带来好处”(坎波尔,2003)。 援助发展中国家的主要经济理论通常是按其对经济增长的影响来推动经济发展和增加财富。在1950年代初,发展理论家强调经济增长的作用,资本的成形和大规模投资变成经济增长的重要成分(著名1953年,刘易斯,1953)。 A Review Of Aid On Growth This chapter presents an introduction of Foreign aid, objectives and uses of aid, followed by a review of aid on growth. It looks at ways of assessing aid and compelling reasons for state invention will be reviewed Foreign aid as an instrument of national policy dates back from the 18th century, when Frederick the Great of Prussia subsidised certain allies to ensure their military support and effectiveness. ( Ekiring 2000) The needs of developing countries were more openly acknowledged in the inaugural address of President Truman in 1949, when he declared the objective of “making the benefits of our scientific advance and industrial progress available for the improvement and growth of underdeveloped areas” (Kanbur, 2003). The principal economic rationale for aid to developing countries is for the promotion of economic development and welfare, usually measured by its impact on economic growth In the early 1950s, development theorists emphasised the role of economic growth, with capital formation and large-scale investment as the vital ingredients for growth (Nurske,1953, Lewis, 1954). It was assumed that capital inflows, including aid, can provide the needed capital to promote growth in the developing countries, although very little empirical research was undertaken to examine the relationships between aid and growth. Early empirical work on the impact of aid on growth was based on these two-gap models, often concentrating on the impact of aid on investment or savings rather than on growth per se (these studies are reviewed in White, 1992; Hansen and Tarp, 2000a). Yet, after decades of capital transfers to countries, and numerous studies of the empirical relationship between aid and growth, the effectiveness of foreign aid in achieving its objectives remains questionable The concept of aid finance is subject to many interpretations. Whilst some agree to the assertion that aid is useful and does contribute to development others contend that it leads to increase corruption and complacency. The Development Assistance Committee of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) defines foreign aid in terms of Official Development Assistance (ODA), which more precisely refers to those flows to developing countries and multilateral institutions provided by official agencies, including state and local governments, or by their executive agencies, with each transaction administered principally to promote the economic development and welfare of developing countries as its main objective; and its concessional in character with a grant element of at least 25 per cent (OECD terminology) Similarly others have defined foreign aid to include the transfer of capital, goods , and services for the benefit of recipient countries provided In the following manner; Capital transfers in cash or kind Technical assistance and training ( Ekiring 2000) In the same vein others have looked at another broader concept of aid referred to as development finance(ODF). By definition ODF is a combination of ODA, grants, concessional and non-concessional lending by multilateral financial institutions and other official flows for development purposes including refinancing loans which do not qualify as ODA because of the low grant component. (OECD Glossary) A world d bank publication makes a clear distinction between ODA and official development finance when it states that the former is the subset of the later and is made up of grants and concessional loans that at least a 25% grant element. (World Bank, 1998) This study uses the definition of official development assistance and includes the fact that the funds should be those provided by the multi-lateral institutions and be targeted at the private sector development. Aid can be classified into two broad categories; Multi-lateral and Bilateral Multi-lateral aid is aid delivered through international organisations such as the various agencies in the United Nations, the World Bank, IMF and the African Development Bank whereas bilateral aid is given directly by one country to another. A spectacular example is the Netherlands giving aid/funds directly to Ghana. (OECD, 2009) 2.2 Motivations of Foreign Aid The provision of foreign aid by the US began after the Second World War under the US-funded Marshall Plan of 1947 which provided funds for the reconstruction of Europe and facilitated a period of rapid industrialization during the late 1940s and early 1950s. Following the success of the Marshall plan, President, Truman announced a major program of increased foreign assistance to the developing world. (Hjertholm and White;Disscusion paper Institute of Economics Universityof Copenhagen). This phenomenon consequently became a platform for industrialised nations to extend aid to developing countries. Historically, aid has served a multitude of objectives; from reconstruction to poverty alleviation. In 1947 under the Marshall Plan most aid was tailored to reconstruct Europe after World War II. The US consciously used aid to stop countries going communist under the telling name Mutual Security Act after the adoption of the International Development Act of 1950. Though, the allocation and quality of aid have also been largely shaped by the legitimate concerns for the development needs of some recipient countries. Some donors have principally used aid as a foreign and commercial policy tool. Political and economical reasons, colonial history and strategic interest, humanitarian and poverty reasons are some of the reasons that can be chronicled for aid. David Sogge (2002) highlighted some of the reasons for aid by the OECD countries and World Bank as poverty reduction, through the provision of social services and economic growth, good governance (democratisation or ‘political openness. Rak ner and Mulaisho,1999) provides empirical evidence that associate donor influence over recipient countries as a motive of given aid and referred this phenomena as conditionality based aid by Mention can also be made of the following objectives in contemporary times; The need to improve the policy, legal and regulatory framework for investment and growth. This includes support for the design, implementation and monitoring of policy reforms; the improvement of the legal and regulatory framework for private sector development and investment; the privatisation of state-owned enterprises; and consequently, the improvement of markets to help the poor participate successfully in the economy and the introduction and application of competition policy, laws and institutions. Improving good governance. This spans the public and private sectors. Reducing corruption, improving transparency, promoting democracy, and improving the administration of government services are important aspects of donor efforts to improve governance in public institutions. Donors more lately are supporting the design and enforcement of corporate governance principles and codes of conduct, while also facilitating processes that improve private sector representation and dialogue between government and the private sector. Donors facilitate international trade by supporting the improvement of the export capacity of selected industries in Africa. This objective is beginning to take a more systemic and comprehensive approach as donors are engaged in the support for trade-related institutions, improving the legal and regulatory regime for trade, creating new foreign trading opportunities, and supporting African countries to comply with international standards and protocols, along with their capacity to participate effectively in trade negotiations. Developing human capital and entrepreneurship through programmes such as education, skills training, improving infrastructure and utilities, supported the establishment of financial schemes in Africa, by undertaking micro level interventions to improve investment in through the provision of incentives for private investment, investment guarantees and risk mitigation are some of the motivations for aid in less developed countries. Donors worldwide; countries, international agencies and specialized funds – provide nearly US$120 billion in development and humanitarian aid to developing countries, with private contributions adding a further US$20 - 25 billion. 2.3 Rationale of Aid Foreign aid is targeted for various sectors in the economies of developing countries. The distribution of foreign aid hereafter referred to official development assistance, (ODA) to the various sectors are indicated on the chart below; the allocation to Social infrastructure is by far the highest claim ( 57%) , followed by Economic infrastructure of 24.6%. The Production and Multi-sector/Cross cutting comparatively had the least allocation of of 9.7% and 8.7% respectively in the 2009 Net ODA distribution.#p#分页标题#e# Though aid allocation across sectors may play an important role in improving aid effectiveness, it is an area that has not been effectively explored and therefore provides an opportunity for further research. Aid more probably will be most effective if it fits well with the recipient’s priorities. The need to improve policies and institutions, legal and regulatory framework for investment and growth in developing countries has become a determinant for increase aid, more lately. The World Bank policy research report, (1998), suggests that when counties pursue economic reform policies, timely assistance would consequently have the potential of increasing the benefits of reform and maintaining support for them. In the early days of development assistance, development economies, issued a brief that the new independent governments were agents for change. Hence government to government aid had a plausible claim as the best way to facilitate development. However in most cases, developing countries have rather used aid to finance consumption at the expense of investment. This observation has had a more telling effect on the economies of developing countries as they ‘battle’ to develop their economies. CHART 1.1 Source: Authors own computation based on OCED 2009 figures. 2.4 IMPACT OF FOREIGN AID The impact of aid on growth is arguable one of the most controversial aspects in the history of development assistance. Though, it is an area that has been extensively researched, the literature fails to establish explicitly the link between aid and growth. While others contend that aid does contribute to growth and development others are critical of aid impact on growth. It is perhaps one of the most challenging topics, critical to researchers and economist alike, given its implications for poverty reduction: the key criterion against which aid ought to be assessed. A article in the American Economic Rview(2001) by World Bank Economists; Craig Burnside and David Dollar (2001) was that on average, foreign aid does not foster economic growth except in some special cases where governments have implemented macro-economic policies, such as openness to trade and low budget deficits. Similarly, Boone (1994), an economist with investment firm of Brunswick UBS Warburg and a former Professor at the London School of Economics that foreign aid has not in any case significantly boosted investment or growth. In another article, Hansen and Tap( does indicate that aid stimulates or promotes growth by increasing domestic investment in developing countries. Easterly (2001), Easterly (2006), Moyo (2009) chronicled the abysmal historical record of foreign aid and indicated aid has failed to spur economic growth in the places where it could perhaps have done the most good, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the vulnerable and less privileged countries in the world. Easterly (2001, 2006) referred to some other people perception of aid as a colossal waste and a pernicious force that breeds corruption, deters democracy and good governance, and ultimately impedes economic growth. A world Bank publication (1998: 2) suggest that Aid only appears to be effective in countries with appropriate economic policies, i.e. ‘aid works in a good policy environment’. From this perspective, good policy is a necessary condition for aid effectiveness. This view however, has been challenged, and there is evidence that good policy is not necessary for aid effectiveness (Hansen and Tarp, 2000b). It may still be the case that the effectiveness of aid is enhanced by good policy. Knack (2000), in a cross-country analysis, presented contrasting results also, indicating that higher aid levels erode the quality of governance indexes, that is, bureaucracy, corruption and the rule of law. He argues “aid dependence can potentially undermine institutional quality, encouraging rent seeking and corruption, fomenting conflict over control of aid funds, siphoning off scarce talent from bureaucracy, and alleviating pressures to reform inefficient policies and institutions”. Burnside & Dollar (2000) emphasized that foreign aid spurs growth when recipient countries pursue “good economic policies such as low inflation, low budget deficits, and high trade volume. This however has also generated a series of critical studies that argued foreign aid either led unconditionally to economic growth, did not lead at all to economic growth, or led to economic growth conditional on other factors (Hansen & Tarp (2000); Hansen & Tarp (2001); Lensik & White (2001); Clemens et al.(2004); Dalgaard et al. (2004); Easterly et al. (2004); Roodman (2007,2008b); Rajan & Subramanian (2008) Though some studies have tried to link aid to growth by simple regressing techniques, the outcome has not indicated any significant relationship.( Riddle 1987, Mosley 1987, White 1992), In the same vein, project evaluation show that the majority of projects are successful. Andersson et al (2000) refers to this controversy as the macro-micro paradox and states that one explanation of the paradox could be that the direct effects of aid are positive while it tends to have negative indirect effects. Andersson emphasized the that there are two distinguishing effects of aid on growth, the direct and the indirect. The direct effects alter production, income, or consumption as a direct consequence of some project intervention, while the indirect effects are less easily identified. From the wide and varied literature, it is apparently clear that aid has both direct and negative effects on growth, this study intends to assess the positive effects of aid on growth. Conversely, assessing the negative effects of aid on growth requires the use of models like the CGE Model by et al Andersson or the adoption of Burnside and Dollar sophisticated two stage least square model which takes into cognisance the interactions among aid, policy and growth. Given the limited time frame and the need to access all relevant data through surveys, policy reviews etc in the applications of such models, is not plausible under this circumstance. This study however, intends to evaluate the impact of aid on growth of particular interventions using project impact assessment methods. The assessment techniques, particularly the ex post assessment identifies and examines the actual impact of the intervention after its implementation and will essentially serve as input for improvement in the design phase of future interventions. This focus of this study is to assess the impact of the projects on the following growth indicators; Investment, exports, outputs and employment. 2.5 THE ECONOMIC ROLE OF GOVERNMENT In the early 15-18th century, economic writers advocated for an active role of the government in the promotion of trade and exports. Thomas Mun and Baptiste Colbert were the advocates..The dynamics of the role of government over time have changed and across countries. Adam Smith in his book, the Wealth of Nations in 1776, call for a limited role of government in the economy. He premised this on competition and the profit motive as the best to promote public well-being and that people, driven by their self motive will be led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of thiers. There are four main theories on the role of the government in the economy, Laissez-Faire Economics, Keynesian Economics, Supply-Side Economics, and Monetarism (Cummings 584). The laissez-faire economics is for the government to abstain from involvement in anything that will affect the economy. The system includes the idea that the government should not regulate the marketplace, workforce, environment, etc. and allow the economy to move and evolve naturally (Cummings 584 The laissez-faire economics argue that government should allow the economy to move and evolve naturally without interventions.(Cummings 584). Keynesian economics, on the other hand called for government regulations through fiscal policy to stimulate the economy, where necessary. (Cummings 585). Supply-side theory is designed to curb the effects of inflation by proposing tax and spending cuts as a means to motivate increase production of goods and services (Cummings 585). The laissez-faire framework traces its origins to Adam Smith; who stated in his book, the Wealth of Nations(1776) that government’s role in the economy should be limited to correcting the imperfections, hereafter; referred to as market failures that may arise out of private production. major market failures therefore provide a potential rationale for government intervention but the success of government interventions has been mixed. It is important that interventions be well designed. The public sector should only intervene in the economy when markets are not efficient and when the intervention would improve efficiency.The main role of Government may intervene to provide an enabling environment for the private sector. This six important roles that government must perform in providing the ‘rules’ of the game, as emphasized by Stieglitz gives further impetus to this need. Governments must provide the infrastructure in the form of education, financial, social, technological, physical and environmental. This is critical if markets are to function efficiently for both wealth creation and improve living standards. The enormous amount of the budget for such an investment is beyond the worth withal of any individual firm and calls for a concerted action from government. ( World Bank 1997). A more recent example is the US stabilization pact. However, market intervention is dicey and public sector should only intervene in the economy when markets are not efficient and when the intervention would improve efficiency.#p#分页标题#e# 2.5 GHANA’s NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK (VISION 2020) The challenging global economic environment has more often than not become the premise for developing countries, including Ghana to develop strategies for development. These strategies among other things, are to address poverty issues , and improve stardard of living. The overarching goal of Ghana’s long term vision is to achieve “middle-income country status” by 2020. Ghana, has since independence developed and implemented various development programmes within the broad framework of national development. Key among such is the Ghana’s “Vision 2020” which was designed to help achieve balanced social and regional development, and enhance private sector activity and export orientation. Ghana’s -Vision 2020," is a policy document set forth by the government aimed at creating a stable macroeconomic environment and implementing a decisive structural transformation to foster strong economic growth and a broad-based improvement of living standards (Republic of Ghana 1995) Prior to the adoption of Vision 2020, Ghana, was classified by World Bank's World Development Report 1993 as one of the 40 low-income economies in the world with per capita income of less than $635 per annum. In 1992 Ghana's average income per head was $441. Among the reason that accounted for this, was the severe 1983, drought , the overdependence on agricultural and the high population growth rate of 3% % per annum. drought that The Government planned raise GDP growth to over 8% and income per head to at least $500 through a medium-term coordinated programme of policies. The long term development objectives were premised on five thematic areas Human Development Economic Growth Enabling Environment Rural Development and Urban Development On the human development front, the government sought to improve food security, nutrition, increase access to health services, safe water and sanitation, and adequate housing and help reduce the rate of population growth to 2% by 2020 Economically it sought to establish an open and liberal market, improve the legal and administrative system and the economic infrastructure to promote private investment, from both local and foreign investors. 2.6 GHANA TRADE INVESTMENT GATEWAY PROJECT The Ghana Trade Investment Gateway Project was designed by the Ghana government and funded by the World Bank in July 1998 .The project had the strategic development objective of attracting a critical mass of foreign direct investment, accelerate export-led growth as well as facilitate trade. It was supported by the World Bank on condition that it will facilitate investment in competitive economic activities. The overall programme objective was inspired by Ghana’s Vision 2020” Document which sought to obtain an annual GDP growth rate of 8%-10% by undertaking reforms and making sustained efforts to improve standard of living, and reduce poverty levels. The main areas of focus were to undertake Legislative and Regulatory Reforms, provide incentive packages for export oriented investors, and remove physical and administrative bottle-necks to Trade Facilitation, build the necessary infrastructure and attract FDI. The World Bank, in a press release, regards this project: as an important contribution towards the encouragement of further outward-oriented foreign investment in Ghana. We are very hopeful that the privately-financed free trade zone can pave the way for a significant growth in labor-intensive export industries. But the key will be for the government to make sure it effectively uses the technical assistance, available under the Project, to improve those trade facilitation services - Customs, Immigration, and Investment Promotion - that can so easily become the stumbling blocks to the successful attraction of new industries," Peter Harrold (World Bank), Press Release No: 99/1874/AFR pg(1) World Bank Bank's Country Director in Ghana. |
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