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尼日利亚拥有丰富的能源资源 尼日利亚富拥多种多样的能源资源并且在全球能源配置和平衡中占有令人羡慕的位置。而如果管理不善，有一种潜在可能将会把这个令人羡慕的国家变得出现能源危机和不均衡。[1]尽管尼日利亚的能源资源拥有如此巨大多样的潜力(主要是石油和天然气)，但仅仅是生产、出口和销售石油对尼日利亚的出口收入的贡献就超过了90%，是她的总收入的80%，超过75%的总外汇和12%的国内生产总值。(GDP)[2] 毫无疑问，化石燃料是最便宜的能量方式，在未来的几十年，仍然是世界各地主要的能源形式。然而专家对已探明储量的石油生产国的生产潜力提出了一个时间期限。例如，在目前的生产进度下，尼日利亚的石油预计将可持续45年，它的天然气将可持续90年。[3]一个可行的政策旨在发展其他能源因此成为了当务之急。 在尼日利亚，政府已经意识到需要促进生产和投资可再生替代能源作为一个可行的收入来源来协助目前的能源形势。 Nigeria is rich in energy resources 1.0 INTRODUCTION Nigeria is rich in varied energy resources and occupies an enviable position in the global energy mix and balance. Such enviable potential can probably throw the nation into an energy crisis and disequilibrium, if mismanaged.[1] In spite of this enormous and varied potential in Nigerian energy resources (of which oil and gas are predominantly), production, export and marketing of petroleum alone contribute over 90% of Nigeria's export earnings, about 80% of her total revenue, over 75% of her total foreign exchange and 12% of her gross domestic products (GDP).[2] There is no doubt that fossil fuels are the cheapest form of energy and shall remain the major source of energy in the world over for many decades. Experts have nevertheless put a time limit on the productive potential of the proven reserves of all petroleum producing nations. For example, at the present rate of production, Nigeria's oil is expected to last for the next 45 years and her gas for the next 90 years.[3] A viable policy aimed at developing the other energy sources has therefore become imperative. As a complement to the present energy situation, the government has now realized the need to promote renewable energy resource alternatives as a viable source of revenue generation and investment in Nigeria. Nigeria has an estimated population of over 149 million as at July, 2009.[4] However, from the current United Nations population projection, there will be an increase in the world population and Africa having the highest population growth rate at 3% per annum.[5] From the foregoing, it is clear that there is an urgent need for Nigeria to take a bold new initiative to diversify her mono-culture economy, specifically in the area of revenue generation, so to as to meet the challenges ahead. In a nutshell, there is need for appropriate and specifically designed microeconomic policies directed towards alternative sources of revenue generation, in order to complement the present business and investment efforts of the nation. This research will provide an overview of the Nigerian bio fuels business environment, the business potentials of a bio fuels market in Nigeria and the viability of bio fuel and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project in Nigeria. A financial analysis will be carried out to check the viability of a bio fuels project. 2.0 GLOBAL ENERGY SITUATION The rise in global demand for energy fuelled mainly by China and India and the persistent rise in the prices of crude oil has led to increased interest in alternative sources of energy, renewable energy sources in particular.[6] A forecast of 60 percent increase in energy consumption in the next 25 years by the world energy outlook, predicts that a bulk of this increase will occur in developing countries. Fossil fuels will continue to have a major share in the global energy mix which comes its consequences such as increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy security issues etc.[7] The above diagram shows us the instability especially political faced in the hydrocarbon resource rich nations and the escalating trend of crude oil prices over the years leading to intensive search for alternative energy, especially Bio fuels. There are also concerns in the area of fossil fuel depletion globally especially in the United States and the United Kingdom which has consequently increased import dependence. Renewable energy has enormous benefits in mitigating the challenges faced in the global energy demand. The evolution of bio energy has faced positive development and commercialization particularly in bio fuels. Bio fuel is one of the renewable technologies that is receiving attention. There are various forms of advanced bio energy technology that are fast growing and becoming cost competitive as they make use of locally produced resources. Bio energy also has huge benefits in terms of cost cutting on fuel.[8] Bio fuel is a major area of renewable energy that has been getting attention. As at 2005, the total supply of bio fuels came up to 40 billion liters with bio ethanol having the major chunk of 90% and bio diesel with 10%. Bio fuels had a share of 1% in the global transport fuel demand as at 2004; this shows that the industry has faced tremendous growth since 2000 according to IEA (2007)[9]. Major players of the bio fuels market are the European Union (EU), Brazil and the United States of America (USA) with the EU being the main player in bio diesel and USA and Brazil in the bio ethanol market. 2.1 Business Environment The Brazilian Experience Globally, Brazil is the leader in ethanol production and has shown tremendous efforts in expanding into bio diesel and other bio mass fuels. Its long history of ethanol use has necessitated this research to look briefly into its extensive and supporting infrastructure in this major market. [10] Brazil started producing ethanol The Brazilian initiative for Bio fuels was ignited for the following reasons: It was a crude oil importer It sort fuel diversification Sourcing for alternative and internal solution Brazil has made head way in successfully developing effective technologies to sustain its bio energy and has done this for over three decades and increase in exports due to growth in foreign demand.[11] In the early 1900s, Brazil started producing ethanol from sugarcane and had a requirement of 5% of ethanol in gasoline as at 1931. Also in response to the global oil crises, Brazil implemented the National Alcohol program in 1973. Since then Brazil has dedicated to produce ethanol vehicles in mass and presently has its government mandate of blending 25% ethanol in gasoline.[12] Fuel Consumption by Vehicle in Brazil (2004) 2.1.1 Social Benefit of Brazilian Ethanol Project The benefits from a 80,000 hectares of land are: 500,000,000 liters of ethanol produced 20,000 direct jobs have been created 60,000 indirect jobs have been created The aim to fully implement the use of Bio fuel as a substitute fuel was achieved when Brazil launched its first car operating 100% ethanol.[13] 2.1.2 Current Status in Brazil Since 1976 the government made it mandatory to blend ethanol (Anhydrous) with gasoline, fluctuating between 10% to 22%. Brazil is the world's second largest producer of ethanol (US being the first) and the world's largest exporter. In 2008 Brazil produced 24.5 billion litres which represents 37.3% of the world's total ethanol used as fuel.[14] 2.1.3 Key Success factors for Brazil Economic Liberalization Deregulation Favorable Ethanol Policies Brazil, with its climatic conditions achieved the above mention then the Nigerian business environment is set to thrive. 2.2 Global Present and Future of Ethanol Trading Worldwide, IOCs, NOCs and Food companies are increasingly investing in Bio fuels. PDVSA, the National Oil Company of Venezuela is developing 100,00 hectares of sugarcane to build five ethanol refineries. CNOOC, the Chinese National Off-shore Oil Company has gone into a joint venture (JV) to develop a $5.5billion bio diesel plant in Malaysia and Indonesia. To promote the cleaner energy program, Chevron is building a large scale bio diesel plant in the United States, investing up to $400million/year. All these developments and more in other parts of the world are done in the quest for Energy Security. 2.2.1 Factors Driving Ethanol Market: High oil prices National energy security considerations Ethanol tax incentives Improved technology- lower cost of ethanol production Climate change concerns 2.2.2 Biofuels: World Domestic Current Snapshot There is tremendous political and popular support There are two main liquid bio fuels Ethanol and Bio diesel. Ethanol is the most popular, it has the best economics, fundamental usage is viable even without tax incentives, fairly concentrated production fundamentals, imported in large quatities to the United States and Europe. Sugarcane is the only real feedstack competition to corn in the United States.#p#分页标题#e# Commercially viable production from cellulose still largely theoretical. Bio diesel can be easily integrated into existing infrastructure, highly fragmented production fundamentals. Popular as an export product from the United States and Brazil. With multiple feedstocks. Other alternative fuels- solar, wind, hydro, biomass largely a non-liquid fuel application. Food vs Fuel argument, inflation, environment issues are of concern. Additional mandated market based products (Carbon Credits,etc) critical to long term.[15] 3.0 NIGERIAN BIOFUEL: BACKGROUND The Nigerian National Biofuels Programme was lauched in August 2005 following a Federal Government directive to NNPC to spearhead the Biofuels initiative. The primary objective is to improve the environment by the reduction of Green House emissions (GHG), link the Petroleum sector of the economy to the Agricultural sector and create jobs for Nigerian in general and alleviate poverty. This will also gradually reduce the nation's dependence on fossil fuels and strengthen the economy by freeing more crude oil into export market.[16] A three pronged approach was developed to ensure the smooth take off of the industry. Domestic Biofuels industry development Seeding Programme development Biofuels Policy and incentives An Inter-ministerial Steering Committee was set up in 2005 for the bio fuels programme with the following terms of reference; Ensuring the development and establishment of appropriate land policy guidelines, to also make sure appropriate incentives are created to attract private sector participation in the industry programme and ensure that stakeholders particularly at state and local government level are encouraged to focus on the necessary infrastructural development needed to drive the industry programme. 3.1 Nigerian Biofuels Policy The purpose of the bio fuels policy is to enhance the reduction of green house gas in the environment, attract domestic and international investments to the Nigerian Bio fuels industry, create an efficient and effective bio fuels industry and provide incentives to reduce cost in the Nigerian Biofuels industry on both agricultural and industrial sides. The benchmarks used in developing the Nigerian Biofuels Policy was tailored after five countries/regions namely; Brazil, India, Thailand, USA and Europe. Analysis will be carried out financially and the fiscal incentives for investors will be looked at; Accord Bio fuels industry pioneer status Long term preferential loans arrangements will be made available to bio fuels investors. Exemption from taxation, withholding tax and capital gains tax on foreign interest, dividends and services. Waiver on value added tax on all services Insurance cover will provided by the Nigerian Agricultural Insurance Corporation. Waiver on import and customs duties and other taxes on the importation and exportation.[17] 3.2 Nigerian Energy Resources Nigeria is rich with energy resources in both renewable and conventional. All these present a well enough capacity for her to effectively develop a healthy national energy plan. Energy resources in Nigeria include Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Tar Sand and Renewables (Biomass, Hydro, Solar, Wind etc.) As at 2006 its estimated Oil reserve stood at 35.9 billion bbls, Natural Gas at 185 trillion cft and Coal and Lignite reserves estimated at 2.75 billion tons.[18] An average daily production of 2.2million bbls will deplete the 35.9 billion bbls within 3640 years (reserve to production ratio). With this scenario, Nigeria needs to think of developing alternative sources of energy. Hopefully renewable energy will increase in supply and reduce the demand on Oil reserve.[19] 3.2.1 Nigeria's Renewable Energy Potentials From the given, Solar energy has a reasonable size and the technology should be given paramount consideration. Nigeria lies in the equatorial and tropical zone, which is fortunate for us to use crop and wood plantations as sources for the supply of renewable energy.[20] 3.2.2 Nigeria's Bio fuels Demand Potentials In order to meet our automotive fuels for energy demand locally, the following mitigation measures need to be taken: Invest in the development and construction of more petroleum refineries-modular etc Invest in Bio fuels projects to augment petroleum distillate fuels. Ensure adequate energy mix from various sources as no single energy source would guarantee energy security in the long term. 3.4 BUSINESS POTENTIALS OF THE NIGERIAN BIO FUEL MARKET 3.4.1 Resource Availability in Nigeria for Biofuels Nigeria has about 33 million Hectare of arable land and only about 10% is under cultivation. It also has favorable climatic and ecological conditions across the country. Financial institutions are willing to participate; therefore, there is a strong capital base. Nigeria also has a large of skilled and unskilled labour, an already existing nationwide infrastructure (NNPC) and research institutions (NCRI, IITA, NRCRI, NIFOR, Universities etc) 3.4.2 SWOT ANALYSIS Strength Vast industrial experience Pool of highly competent professionals Speed to market NNPC retail outlets nationwide High Quality management system Weaknesses Relevant knowledge gap in CDM and biofuels business Inadequate funding Inconsistent policies Opportunities Large market for CERs and Biofuels Access to technology Global climate change awareness Export potentials Collaboration with local research institutes Quicker pay-back period than traditional E&P business Relatively Cheap Labor availability Suitable Land availability Favorable agro-climatic conditions Threats Frequent changes in management Inconsistent policies Transfer of key staff Lack of adequate legislative framework Identifying the strengths, weakness, opportunities and strengths shows that Nigeria has a strategic position to drive the bio fuels business. Our decision will be to invest in viable projects.[21] 4.0 VIABILITY OF A BIOFUELS PROJECT IN NIGERIA 4.1 Food and Fuel not Food vs Fuel Bio fuel project are all integrated (plant and plantation) and as such will not distort current food supply. Currently there is no commercial scale Biofuel production in Nigeria, hence the rising costs of food in Nigeria is due to causes other than bio fuels production, the bio fuels project would also boost Agriculture and add to Nigeria's food production through mechanized farming. 4.2 Readiness of the Nigerian Business Environment At the federal level, the National Biofuels Policy was gazette on the 20th of June, 2009. This will create the enabling environment for the implementation of the biofuel programme. Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has been executed with Gombe, Ondo, Benue and Cross River States. Cross River State government has a MOU to provide 20,000 hectares of arable land and to determine the viability of establishing Oil Palm Plantations and bio diesel processing plant. At the Local level, the communities are excited and hoping to explore the possibilities of participating in the bio fuels project.[22] 4.2.1 National Biofuels Feedstock Map For the purpose of our analysis we would carry out a study on potential sugarcane � ethanol project that would be sited at Agasha-Guma in Benue State, Nigeria. Reason being that the site has the best favorable agronomic variables such as rainfall availability, and proximity to water for irrigation. 4.3 Project Assumptions 4.4 Operating Cost Operating cost will include direct costs such as labor and materials and overhead costs consisting of sales, general and administrative expenses, training, overhead staff for both plantation and plant. Operating will decline as shown in the appendix. It is will be assumed that it will be inclusive of management fee for expatriate staff whose contract would expire in 3 � 5 years. 4.5 Model Description Net Present Value (NPV) of the project would be calculated with the project assumptions. Once the NPV is positive then the project would be deemed viable. From the appendix the cash flows after tax are expected to average $43.65mm/year over the course of the project. The project has negative cash flows in the first few years because of significant investment in capital infrastructure and equipment as well as ramp up in production. 5.0 CONCLUSION From the financial analysis, the project gives us an NPV of $44.34mm and a payback period of 7 years which shows that the project is financially and commercially viable with present conditions. Bio fuels business in Nigeria is long overdue and attracts immense financial and environmental benefits. It will also earn carbon credits and contribute towards fighting climate change.#p#分页标题#e# Surely, the economic benefits from this business can supersede our expected projection. LIST OF REFERENCES PRIMARY SOURCES. SECONDARY SOURCES. 2.1. BOOKS. 2.2. ARTICLES. United Nations: Food and Agriculture Organization. A cassava industrial revolution in Nigeria, The potential for a new industrial crop. 2004. 2.3. OTHERS. Subhes B, Energy Economics- The Issues Course Notes: Issues Related to Alternative Energy Supply and Use, CEPMLP Lecture notes 2010, University of Dundee,UK Oil and Gas Journal 2007 |
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