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欧盟东扩近期的影响 本报告的目的是探讨欧盟扩大并检查其在欧洲联盟内对企业的影响。首先，我将利用SWOT分析法，研究一些欧盟及其成员国作为一个整体所面临的主要收益、成本和机会问题。然后，我会用PEST分析法，研究其在英国和其行业的影响。 SWOT分析将为企业分析区域层面运作的影响，主要集中在外国直接投资流入国家气象部门的影响。在另一方面，PEST分析将集中于在全国范围内的企业经营。然后，我会总结东扩以及欧盟内部对业务的影响，并作出一些总体结论。 在此背景下，扩大可被定义为通过新成员国的加入扩大了欧盟的进程。在2004年5月1日，8个中欧和东欧国家（东欧国家）加入联邦。迄今，捷克共和国，爱沙尼亚，匈牙利，拉脱维亚，立陶宛，波兰，斯洛伐克，斯洛文尼亚及塞浦路斯和马耳他加入了欧盟，扩大了地中海岛屿的人口，陆地，并相应地增加了一些条款。 Impact Of Recent Wave Of Eu Enlargement Economics Essay The aim of this report is to discuss the most recent wave of EU enlargement and examine its implications on business within the European Union. Firstly, I will utilise a SWOT analysis to examine some of the key benefits, costs and opportunities faced by the EU and its member states as a whole. I will then use a PEST analysis to examine effects on the UK and its industry. The SWOT analysis will focus on the implications for businesses operating on a regional level, mainly focusing on effects on FDI inflows to the NMSs. On the other hand, the PEST analysis will focus on businesses operating on a national level. I will then draw some overall conclusions of the implications that the enlargement has had on business within the EU. In this context, enlargement can be defined as the process of expanding the European Union through the accession of new member states. On May 1st 2004, eight Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) joined the Union. The Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia were joined by the Mediterranean islands of Cyprus and Malta in the biggest enlargement of the EU to date in terms of population, landmass and number of accessions. Bulgaria and Romania were not considered ready in 2004, but joined on January 1st 2007, completing the fifth and most recent wave of European Union enlargement to date (Europa, n.d.a). This report focuses mainly, but not exclusively on the 2004 EU8 countries. 1. SWOT Analysis This section will focus on topics such as economic growth in NMSs, their political issues, the euro debate and effects on SMEs. 1.1 Strengths Political Stability: The fifth wave of EU enlargement has forged a more stable political union, which is one of the main aims of the European Union (Europa, n.d.b). The accessions of the EU8, many of them ex soviet states, indicates a willingness to align their political and economic cultures with those of the Western EU15 (Binran, n.d.). This will increase business confidence when dealing with the newly accessed members and streamline transactions between member states. However, that is not to say that the political situation in the CEE region is without its problems. I will discuss some of these problems in the “weaknesses” section of the analysis. Economic Growth in New Member States: Accession has enabled greater consumer spending power within NMSs, increasing the demand for goods and services. Indeed, many of the EU8 countries enjoyed a post-accession boom. Average real GDP growth in NMSs increased from 3.7% in 2003 to 5% in 2004 (Barysch, 2006). Questions have been raised about the extent that accession had actually benefited the NMSs. In the decade before the 2004 accessions, Hungarian exports rose by 380% (in US dollar terms), whilst Czech exports rose by 280% in the same period (Barysch, 2006). Foreign investors began buying up newly privatised companies long before the accession date. That said, the process of privatisation may not have come about were it not for the accession process. The EU required candidate countries to abolish all tariffs and imports, with the exception of some “sensitive” items, food products and services in 1997. The deadline for the CEE accession countries to fully liberalise their markets arrived in 2002 (Barysch, 2006). For these reasons, we can see that accession, or at least the accession process, has facilitated and boosted business transactions between new and old member states. It has had a profound effect on GDP growth in NMSs, as well as on their export levels. Manufacturing Within Europe: As the business environments in the recently accessed countries have started to become more like those of their Western European counterparts, it is little wonder that many businesses from the EU15 countries have chosen to move production, logistics or marketing operations to CEECs such as Poland, Slovakia or Hungary. Such businesses are less likely to suffer from a liability of foreignness in these countries due to them having stable, predictable business environments, more government culpability and a closer proximity to domestic markets compared to emerging global economies such as China and India. However, it seems that Eastern Europe does not have a future as a base for low-cost manufacturing. It cannot compete on labour costs with the aforementioned countries in terms of producing mass-manufactured goods. According to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE, 2008), the gross average monthly wage in the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Poland and Romania has more than doubled in each case respectively during the period of 2002-2008. In the Czech Republic and Poland, the average gross salary was over $1000 per month in 2008 (See Appendix 1). In December of the same year, the average salary in China was $415 (Paztal, 2009). Because of this, companies may move production further east to utilise even cheaper labour. On the other hand, CEECs have attracted investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-value added services. Nokia (2009) and Ericsson (Hungarian Association For Innovation, n.d.) have developed R&D centres in Hungary, whereas the Czech Republic now hosts a range of data processing operations for Siemens (n.d) and Lufthansa (2008). The region has also become a manufacturing base for the European automotive industry. Fiat has production facilities in Poland and Turkey, VW in Poland and Slovakia, Audi in Hungary, Skoda and PSA in the Czech Republic, PSA, Peugeot and Citro?n in Slovakia, and Renault in Romania (Barysch, 2006). Indeed, in 2007 Slovakia produced more cars per 1,000 inhabitants than any other country in the world (European Automobile Manufacturers Association, 2007). This shift in production has reestablished the European car manufacturing industry after a difficult period in the 1990s and has helped improve its competitiveness in the face of global competition. 1.2 Weaknesses Political Problems: Many of the NMS were fraught with political problems or instability in the post-accession period. During 2004, seven of the eight new Eastern European member states saw a change in government. Slovakia’s was the only government to retain its power, yet it lost its parliamentary majority (Barysch, 2006). In many cases, the changes in power took place due to scandals or political infighting, rather than stable, democratic elections. The accession itself played a big part in the change in political dynamics in the region, as EU demands left little room for discussion and most mainstream parties agreed to whatever they were requested to do in order to get their countries ready for the accession. Since then, the European Union has lost its leverage on the NMSs and the fractious political nature of the region began to redevelop. Even so, at the time investor confidence remained high and economic performance was good. Some of the main political problems have come from Romania and Bulgaria. In July 2009, the European Commission issued a damning report on the EU2, indicating that they were still beset with problems such as corruption, fraud and organised crime (New York Times, 2009). A year earlier, the Commission penalised Bulgaria, cutting back its funding due to similar reasons to those cited above (New York Times, 2008). Bulgarian Prime Minister, Boiko Borisov, has since admitted that the country had hidden the truth about the size of its budget deficit in 2009 (Irish Times, 2010). Such problems and admissions are likely to affect business confidence in the country, and cast doubts over the figures presented by other CEECs, perhaps having an indirect effect on their FDI inflows. 1.3 Opportunities Opportunity to Join the Euro: As of 2010, out of the recently accessed countries, Cyprus, Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia have joined the euro-zone (Rosenberg, 2010). All NMSs have the obligation to adopt the common currency when they have fulfilled the required economic stability criteria, as set out by the Maastricht Treaty (Johnson & Turner, 2006, p.37). In order to meet these obligations, each state must be part of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II) for at least two years (Europa, 2007). The three largest NMSs (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) have not yet joined the ERM II. Benefits of joining the ERM II would include a rigid, stable exchange rate with the euro, whilst adopting the single currency would allow for greater price convergence and ensure that there are no exchange rate fluctuations or costs for businesses from euro-zone member businesses to consider. That said, in April 2010 the late president of the National Bank of Poland, Slawomir Skrzypek, suggested that the country has had a “relatively good crisis” due to not being a member of the euro-zone. He claimed that non-membership had allowed Poland to benefit from flexibility of the zloty and to adjust the exchange rate as required on a national level. This is an example of being pragmatic in dealing with the current economic situation. Skrzypek did however agree that in the long term, adoption of the euro will be positive for Poland, which was the only country in the European Union to register economic growth in 2009. Its real GDP expanded by 1.7%, in stark contrast to the average decline of 4.2% suffered by the rest of the EU as a whole (Financial Times, 2010).#p#分页标题#e# In a business sense, adopting the euro would generally be very positive opportunity for the NMSs, at least in prosperous times. On the other hand, during a recession, the lack of an independent monetary policy could make the situation worse. Different countries have different needs, and it is impossible to service individual requirements when part of a single currency. In this respect, the possibility of joining the euro-zone can be categorized as both an opportunity and a threat. 1.4 Threats Recession: The current financial crisis has caused difficulties for the CEECs. Hungary provides a good example of a NMS that enjoyed a post-accession boom period followed by a deep recession. Prosperity was brought about by strong GDP growth of 4% or higher in the post-accession years. Large net inflows of FDI and a rise in per capita income stimulated consumer spending. However, much of this increase in consumer spending was only made possible by borrowed money and the asset price boom proved to be unsustainable. Inflation rose from 3.9% in 2006 to 6.1%in 2008 (tutor2u, 2010). The financial and property booms have dried up, and a problem faced by Hungary is that many consumers and businesses borrowed money in foreign currencies such as the euro or Swiss franc, as interest rates were lower than those of the Hungarian forints. When the forint was a stable currency, this was an attractive proposition, but when the forint depreciated repayment costs rose sharply. This has caused huge external debt in the country (BBC, 2008), and the case study demonstrates the problems caused by unsustainable growth. Investor confidence in the CEE seems to have been seriously dented. Analysts at PriceWaterhouseCoopers (2010) showed a collapse in FDI inflows to CEECs. On average, FDI into the region declined by 50% in 2009 compared to 2008. Slovakia was the only one of the CEECs to register positive FDI inflow in 2009 (See Appendix 2). It is evident that recession is a great threat to CEECs, and has a negative effect on business transactions and investor confidence. On the other hand, recession can be seen as an opportunity to develop new industries (such as alternative energy) and lessen dependency on uncompetitive industries (such as manufacturing). Problems for SMEs?: An often mooted point when discussing EU enlargement is that MNEs will benefit, but SMEs will suffer due to being unable to compete in a larger, more competitive European marketplace. However, the latest wave of enlargement has also provided opportunities for SMEs due to access to cheaper labour. According to a 2005 study by The Executive Comity (TEC), almost 60% of German “Mittlestand” companies said that Eastern Europe was their preferred destination for outsourcing, suggesting that accession had changed the perceptions of smaller companies in Western Europe (Barysch, 2006), demonstrating positive opportunities for SMEs. 2 PEST Analysis In this section, I explore the effects of Eastern European migration to the UK since 2004, as well as the opportunities and problems caused by such a massive influx. 2.1 Political ‘Managed Migration’: The UK allowed free access to EU8 workers in 2004 as part of the Government’s “Managed Migration” policies to address labour shortages. Restricted access to EU2 workers in 2007 due to a higher flow of Eastern European immigration than originally expected from the 2004 accessions (Ruhs, 2006). In 2006, many UK business leaders wanted an “open-door” immigration policy which would allow unrestricted access to Bulgarian and Romanian workers. They supported a statement made by the Business for New Europe Group (BNEG) which advocated unlimited migration (The Independant, 2006). Furthermore, in 2009 a poll of London business leaders showed that 68% believed that all EU members should open their labour markets to New Member States (Rudd, 2009). These results show that there is support from within the British business community towards immigration and enlargement The Worker Registration Scheme (WRS): The WRS was implemented by the Government in February 2004 for accession workers taking up employment after 1st May 2004. This policy meant that A8 workers had to register at the Home Office within a month of gaining employment. It was a way to control their access to benefits and services, and provide empirical data on migration inflows, as well as being a financial deterrent to businesses that employ unregistered workers (Ruhs, 2006). 2.2 Economic Economic Growth: In 2006, the Ernst & Young ITEM Club released a report which suggested that the UK economy had been boosted by accession workers. It claimed that immigration had helped to keep inflation under control, ensuring that it was half a percent lower than it otherwise would have been, as well as boosting output and raising tax revenue. The main beneficial factors as far as business is concerned were that migrants were plugging holes in a variety of industries, as explained below. Improved Industry Capacity and Competitiveness: Migrants have filled labour shortages thus improving the capacity and competitiveness of certain industries within the UK. According to the WRS, accession workers are employed in a variety of sectors, but most work within relatively low-skilled jobs. The top five sectors in which EU8 accession workers were employed between May 2004 and May 2009 were: administration, business and management (40%), hospitality and catering (19%), agriculture (10%), manufacturing (7%) and food, fish and meat processing (5%) (Home Office, 2009) (See Appendix 3). Indeed, the downturn in the economy has lead to a decrease in the number of migrant applications from eastern European accession countries to the UK, and a number of workers choosing to return to their countries of origin or seek out opportunities in emerging markets. This has proven particularly difficult for the UK food sector. A report entitled “The Role of Migrants in the Food and Drink Manufacturing Industry” showed that 33.2% of companies within the industry employed staff from overseas in 2008. This figure was down from 48% in 2005, and the paper concludes that there is a clear correlation between this decline and the government figures which indicate that there has been a 4% fall in applications from EU8 nationals to work in the food and drink industry in the UK between 2006 and 2007 (Byrne, 2008). James Matthews, chief executive of Improve, the Food and Drink Sector Skills Council, claimed that food and drink companies have had to look towards migrant labour to fill positions as they are unable to find sufficient numbers at home (Byrne, 2008). This situation demonstrates the importance of migrant workers to certain industries in the UK, and the problems that the slowing of the Eastern European influx could cause. 2.3 Social: New Markets: The influx of Eastern Europeans into the UK has opened up new market opportunities. For example, the Polish delicatessen has become a common feature in Britain since 2004. Polish food has become popular, and not just amongst Poles. In 2007, Elena Connell, the ethnic foods buying manager at Tesco claimed that “certain lines such as soft drinks, sweet delicacies and beer have become very popular with non-Poles” (Telegraph, 2007), whilst the largest British importer of Polish beer, BDD, estimated that sales of Polish alcohol in pubs and clubs had grown by 200% in one year (Telegraph, 2007). Supermarkets were quick to cater to this demand, with Sainsbury’s, Tesco and Asda deciding to add Polish ranges to their international foods section (BBC News, 2006). An example of a new initiative brought about due to the enlargement is HSBC’s Passport account, which is aimed at immigrants and allows them to open an account up to three months prior to arrival in the UK, or up to four months afterwards. The account offers discounted international transfer fees, and perhaps most importantly enables customers to use foreign documents to open it (HSBC, n.d.). Although it is not aimed at Eastern Europeans explicitly, in the three months after its launch, a quarter of all new accounts had been opened by Poles (Fair Investment, 2006). As we can see, opportunities have certainly arisen for UK businesses since the arrival of the Polish and other CEEC migrants. 2.4 Technological Negative Technological Effects?: In theory, it is possible that cheap immigrant labour may have a negative effect on technological advancement. Have employers been discouraged from modernizing production processes, and have we arrived at a situation where some industries only remain viable due to being subsidised by cheap labour? As of yet, it does not seem that these questions have been explored, but research from Lewis (2004, 2005) suggests that the greater availability of cheap, less-skilled labour has slowed down the adoption of automated technology amongst certain US manufacturing plants. 3 Conclusion Throughout this assignment, I have discussed some of the effects that the most recent EU enlargement has had on business. The results have proven to be somewhat complex. It seems that for almost every advantage to enlargement, there is a mirroring disadvantage. Almost every opportunity could become a threat, and vice versa. That said, I believe that the eastward enlargement has had some very positive implications for growth and business transactions within the EU. There have been some political problems which the EU has thus far been unable to digest, but the increased availability of low-cost, highly skilled workers within Europe has helped companies from traditional member states compete with globalisation and increasing competition from emerging economies. They have also forced greater competitiveness within the EU, putting pressure on governments to make their business environments more attractive and effective. In the UK the influx of migrant workers has not been overly popular socially, due to fears of migrants “taking our jobs”. However, from a business standpoint, it has been a great success. Labour shortages have been filled, and new market opportunities have arisen due to the EU’s most recent enlargement. |
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