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很少有政府可以真正称之为激进。Enrique Peña Nieto政府正在迈进这样的道路上。Enrique Peña Nieto政府预计在二零一二年底当选为墨西哥总统，他承诺要大力改革这个国家的治理方法。改革的基本阶段确定以后，接着就是要付出行动了。 在过去的二十个月之中，Enrique Peña Nieto政府会有一番大的作为，他们会把所有成员国的税收降到最低，占到GDP的最低比例。政府的主要收入来源是税收。上个月政府采取了相关的措施来加强电信广播行业，这使得世界首富Carlos Slim垄断了所有的电信公司，América Móvil宣布将放弃资产，并且会对反垄断制度有所干预。 FEW governments can truly claim to be radical. The administration of Enrique Peña Nieto is on its way to joining this rare breed. The Mexican president came to office in late 2012, promising big changes to the way the country was run. The legislative phase of this reform process is now complete. Next comes implementation. 2 Much has been done in the past 20 months. Mexico has the lowest tax take in the OECD as a percentage of GDP: a fiscal reform has started to broaden its sources of revenues. Measures to shake up the telecoms and broadcasting industries last month prompted América Móvil, the monopolistic telecoms firm owned by Carlos Slim, the world’s richest man, to announce it will divest assets to avoid antitrust pricing regimes. Teachers will face more scrutiny, banks more competition. 3 No reform matters more than the liberalisation of Mexico’s hidebound energy sector. The state has controlled the hydrocarbons industry since it was nationalised in 1938. Pemex, the state oil firm, is a cash cow for the government—it contributes a third of revenues—but it is poorly managed and its production levels have been steadily declining. Industrial electricity prices are almost 80% higher than those in the United States. Mexico’s Congress this week approved secondary laws that will throw the country’s deepwater and shale fields open to foreign investment. The electricity industry will also be liberalised. Lower energy prices ought eventually to result. 4 Mr Peña is not the only one who deserves credit for these achievements. So does Mexico as a whole. Its political classes have largely co-operated in pushing through the reforms, many of them requiring constitutional changes. Its people have reacted with maturity to the dismantling of a taboo around foreign investment in Mexico’s natural resources. The country has handed its northern neighbours a lesson in non-partisan governance. 5 Mr Peña’s job is nowhere near complete, however. First, he has to find a way of pepping up a sluggish economy, which is expected to grow by 2.4% this year. The reforms’ costs have materialised faster than their benefits: regulatory uncertainty, higher taxes and denser accounting rules have all taken a toll on consumption and investment. The best way to revive growth quickly is to spend money on infrastructure. Billions have been promised, little has actually happened. Shovels hitting soil would help confidence—provided the projects are not boondoggles. Obvious priorities include new natural-gas pipelines and a new airport for Mexico City. 6 Second, the government has to ensure that the fruits of change are shared by all Mexicans. The reforms of President Carlos Salinas in 1988-94 were discredited because their benefits seemed to accrue only to a privileged few. Membership of NAFTA helped Mexico to attract foreign direct investment but did not close the income gap with Canada and America (seearticle). Previous attempts to evaluate teachers failed to root out the worst ones. 7 Mr Peña will need to do better. Independent regulators will be essential to fostering real competition across the economy. The energy reforms present a particular test. Mexico has scant experience of running tenders and awarding licences; and the most seasoned people are locked up inside Pemex, the institution whose interests are most threatened by the changes. Letting the foreigners in to staff the energy regulators, as well as to explore the country’s natural resources, may be the answer. 8 Even if these problems are solved, big ones will remain. Productivity among small businesses fell by 6.5% a year between 1999 and 2009, according to McKinsey, a consultancy. It will not be easy to encourage tiddlers into the formal economy, where they can concentrate on growing bigger rather than staying under the radar. But if the president can keep up the momentum during the last four years of his term, Mexico will have been changed greatly for the better. Through the above analysis, the influencing factors of national debt issuance is mainly divided into two broad categories.Considering the availability of data, we take out factor in national debt scale in a fiscal deficit, national debt servicing costs two variables, choose from the factors of restricting the national debt scale and gross domestic product (GDP) as well as urban and rural residents savings of these two variables, this article has introduced the influence of four variables to analyze the national debt issuance (debt), letters, respectively is: the gross domestic product (GDP) (A1), fiscal deficit (A2), urban and rural residents savings (A3), national debt servicing costs (A4).At the same time to remove the impact of inflation, GDP deflator for index on these variables respectively (based on 1978 as the base period), then, to eliminate heteroscedasticity phenomena that exist in the time series data, then the data after the deflator for natural logarithm transformation, in order to eliminate the influence of heteroscedastic, national debt issuance after transformation of urban and rural residents, GDP, fiscal deficit, savings, debt servicing expenditure with LND, lnA1, lnA2, lnA3, lnA4 said.The original data after index of GDP deflator value after the data from the natural logarithm transformation.Figure 1 is adjusted the time series variable data trend chart. In this paper, the bond issuance of impulse response function calculates that LND (national debt issuance) from LNA1 (gross domestic product (GDP), LNA2 (deficit), LNA3 (urban and rural residents savings) and LNA4 (national debt servicing costs) of a positive impact in the first stage there is no response.From LNA2 (deficit) a shock response is appear only in the second stage, the response is positive, the third period is negative, then, after the sixth period gradually strengthen the trend.From LNA3 (urban and rural residents savings) a shock response did not appear in the second period, the response is positive, and in the fourth period to around zero value, in the fifth period rose slightly, the impact of future periods near the zero value fluctuates up and down.LND (national debt issuance) from LNA1 (gross domestic product (GDP) and LNA4 (national debt servicing costs) of a shock response is very small, hovering near the zero value.By analyzing these information, we can put the LNA2 (deficits) and LNA3 (urban and rural residents savings) as factors have greater influence on national debt issuance. Variance Decomposition (Variance Decomposition) is based on the analysis of each structure impact on endogenous variable changes (usually with a measure of Variance) contribution to further evaluate the importance of different structural shocks.Therefore, variance decomposition gives an effect on the variables in the VAR model of the relative importance of each random disturbance of information. We variance decomposition, the scale of national debt issue starting from eighth period, the results of variance decomposition tends to be stable, from LND (national debt issuance) equation itself accounted for about 73%, the influence of information from LNA2 (deficit) equation of the impact of information about 13%, from LNA3 (urban and rural residents savings) equation of the information about 10%.From LNA1 (gross domestic product (GDP) and LNA4 (national debt servicing costs) less affected equation information accounted for 2% and 2% respectively.This illustrates the LND (national debt issuance) mainly by itself and LNA2 (deficits) and LNA3 (urban and rural residents savings) is more, the influence of by LNA1 (gross domestic product (GDP) and LNA4 (national debt servicing costs) is relatively lower. Can be seen from the type, LND (national debt issuance), LNA1 (gross domestic product (GDP), LNA2 (deficit), LNA3 (urban and rural residents savings) and LNA4 (national debt servicing costs), there is a long-term equilibrium relationship.In the long run, when LNA1 (gross domestic product (GDP) rose 1%, LND (national debt issuance) can reduce 0.748%, this shows that, when the long-term economic growth will reduce the demand for bonds, reduce national debt issuance.When LNA2 (deficit) rose 1%, LND (national debt issuance) will rise 0.231%, contact the actual situation in our country, it shows that, as the change of national policy in the 1990 s, the government can not to bank overdraft or by borrowing from the bank to make up for the deficit, issuing Treasury bonds as a way to make up for the deficit, the government's economic policy plays a more and more important role.When LNA3 (urban and rural residents savings) by 1%, LND (national debt issuance) will rise 1.16%, this shows that, when the residents' savings deposits increased, will enhance its capability of national economy should be debt, it encouraged the rise in government debt.When LNA4 (national debt servicing costs) rose 1%, LND (national debt issuance) will rise 0.109%, suggesting that, at present in our country, national debt servicing pressure has certain influence to the national debt issuance, but overall, less affected. Granger solved the question of whether or not to cause so Y X, mainly through the now of to what extent the Y can be used to explain X, whether to join the lag value of X to explain the increased.If the correlation coefficient of X and Y are statistically significant, so can think X is Y causes, and Y is not X.Here, therefore, in order to better analysis of the factors that affect national debt issuance, here we first related to impact on the national debt issuance and the above mentioned variables Granger causality test, the application software EVIEWS6 statistical data of 1986-2009, Granger causality test, the test results, LNA2 (deficit), LNA3 (urban and rural residents savings) meet the Granger causality test, the test results show that LNA2 and LNA3 not LND the Granger cause of the null hypothesis rejected under 5% significance level, can be seen in the related data probability value was 0.0494 and 0.0058, respectively.By the results of Granger test, therefore, we believe that LNA2 (deficit), LNA3 (urban and rural residents savings) is to LND (national debt issuance) larger impact factors.While LNA1 (gross domestic product (GDP) and LNA4 (national debt servicing costs) not LND (national debt issuance) the Granger cause of. (eight) VEC model Introduced above is no VAR model of constraint condition, and vector error correction model (VEC) containing can be considered a cointegration, VAR model, this model more in has a co-integration relationship between non-stationary time series modeling of the application. In the process of the establishment of the model, the choice of VEC lag order number is 1, this is because the VEC lag is unconstrained first-order differential variables VAR model of lag, and the unconstrained VAR model is established in this paper, the optimal lag order to 2.In addition, choose to have no trend of constant model is the most suitable model.Available VEC model as follows: According to the overall inspection result of VEC model, model of logarithmic likelihood function of the whole value is very large (155.5519), meanwhile the value of the AIC and SC are relatively small, 10.86835 and 9.083011, respectively, description model of whole explanation ability is better. Based on VEC model, can get, in the short term, LND (national debt issuance) has received the error term negative regulation, coefficient is 0.522, the coefficient is small, and illustrates the adjust ability is weaker.And can be seen in the model, LNA1 (gross domestic product (GDP), LNA2 (deficit), LNA3 (urban and rural residents savings) and LNA4 (national debt servicing costs) that several variables of the impact on the national debt issuance change coefficient, in turn, are respectively 0.998, 0.064, 1.919, 0.325, it is clear that in the short term, LNA3 (urban and rural residents savings) impact on the change of the national debt issuance is significant. With the development of the reform and opening up and the rapid development of economy in our country, our country government of fiscal deficits and great changes have taken place in way of make up.The relatively small size of the deficit before 1987, but its main way is to adopt the way of finance to the central bank overdrafts.Conform to the needs of economic development in 1987, the state council, has made the new regulation, finance can't to the provisions of the central bank overdraft.In order to carry out the policy and financial stability at the same time to reduce until canceled finance of the central bank's loan and overdraft, the government of the country's financial institutions issued 4 billion yuan of Treasury bonds, accounting for 30.14% of the total domestic debt income, thus causing the high-speed expansion of government borrowing for the first time.In 1994, the central government "budget law", defined the government shall not be overdraft or by borrowing from the bank to the bank to make up for the deficit, issuance of long-term and short-term debt become the only way to make up for the deficit.In 1995 the people's bank of China, to the government of the people's bank of China shall not be again to overdraw, not directly subscribe the regulation of government bonds, at the same time also emphasized that the people's bank of China may not provide loans for local governments at all levels, underwriting government bonds and other regulations.Thus, under the condition of no account of factors such as tax, the fiscal deficit offset only depend entirely on the issue of the national debt, this situation also led to the rapid growth of the government debt scale. For the introduction of hidden liabilities and contingent liabilities related literature, elaborated this paper no longer here.It is because of the two parts of the debt without more accurate estimate of the size and duration, and the composition of the various components of the debt is complex, if this part of the debt, in the case of external objective conditions change, the short time period into the reality of government debt, because of the government's fiscal position is unlikely to change in the short term, the government must be through the issuance of Treasury bonds to digest this part of the debt.Obviously, it will lead to the national debt scale expansion. The issue of Treasury bonds has its own unique characteristics, the main point is servicing the rigidity.Restore issue bonds in China in 1981, five years later China formally entered the payback period.After that, over the years the size of the bond issue, increasing national debt balance have a cumulative effect like snowball, shall be paid at the end of each year Treasury and regulatory flux increases year by year.For repayment of national debt and the interest is the basic way of fiscal surplus, raise taxes and raising new debt, but the reality is, in our country do not cover the fiscal revenue, year after year in the fiscal deficit, at the same time, as a result of the limitation of policy and the national debt project economic benefit is low, rely on tax increases and projects to achieve economic benefit of national debt to repay the debt does not apply to the present economic situation.The consequences of the national debt scale, therefore, the cumulative effect of government debt is further expanded. It is obvious that the size of the issuance of bonds should be compatible with the country's fiscal debt repayment ability, and this problem basically is to make debt issuance is consistent with the level of economic development.This means that a country's economic development situation determines the size of the can issue bonds.If the low level of economic development, GDP growth is slow, the fiscal income is not stable, so must not conducive to national debt moderate scale expansion.Instead, a national high-speed stable growth of GDP, fiscal revenue increased steadily, moderate debt would be bigger, the growth of the national debt can be stable and do not form the risk of debt, on the other hand, when a country's economic development level is very high, highly developed GDP, the government's fiscal income, government dependence on debt issuance also reduces, the initiative to reduce the national debt issue.At present our country's economic development is in the primary stage of socialism, economic development level of developed countries is relatively low, which fundamentally restricts the national debt scale expands in our country. From another perspective, the bond issuance will be restricted by social capital volume obviously, and the amount of social capital is just one aspect of the development of national economy.Should the debt money ability is an important factor of restricting the government debt, is to determine whether bonds issued smoothly, can release many important factors.As is known to all, the main body in bonds issued debt should be individuals and units, and the size of the how much savings and credit can be seen as a reflection of both capital ability.Plenty of savings, as well as large scale of credit indicates the overall amount of capital subscribed Treasury is enough, is conducive to the size of the national debt of moderate further expansion;On the other hand, will restrict bond moderate scale expansion.In addition, in 1992 the government's policy change, starting from this year to allow financial institutions, including all kinds of fund subscribe bonds, this makes the subscribe of debt subject to extension.Therefore, from the side, the financial institutions should state debt debt ability strong and the weak is also restricted the expansion of the national debt. Debt structure is defined as a country of various properties of mutual collocation and source of income, debt rate and duration of release and other organic combination.The reasonable structure of Treasury bonds to reduce the financing cost, reduce the financial burden, explore the social capital potential and meet the needs of different types of investors play a crucial role.But our country's current situation is, debt structure is not reasonable, but they have many problems exist, these problems mainly reflects in: not enough reasonable distribution of the structure of the national debt holders of term structure of interest rates is not perfect enough, and so on.It is obvious that the unreasonable debt structure restricts the increase of our country's moderate debt. The Treasury bond market development in our country has experienced nearly thirty years of history, in the past 30 years, our country government bond market has greatly developed and the specification, but compared with western developed countries, there are still many deficiencies and not perfect places, the Treasury bond market and there are many problems need to be solved.The main problems are as follows: market size is small, less varieties;Market segmentation and lack of unity and liquidity;Lack of effective market risk aversion mechanism;Investors structure is unreasonable, and so on. |
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